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Editorial

Why fuel subsidy removal goals may fail

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Recently, the Federal Government disclosed that it will begin a gradual removal of the petrol subsidy from April 2023, about three months ahead of the initial plan to effect a complete stop. What has continued to ponder on the mind is that can this end the scarcity of fuel in the country?

The Minister of Finance Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed,  who dropped this hint on Tuesday during an interview with ARISE TV on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, also said the subsidy removal appears to be the position of all contestants to the leadership of the country in their political campaigns for next month’s general elections.

She stated, “What will be safer is for the current administration to start removing the fuel subsidy   at the beginning of the second quarter.  This according to  her is more expedient if you remove it gradually than to wait and move it all in one big swoop.” After 18-month extension, the Federal Government plans to spend N3.35 trillion on petrol subsidies from January till June 2023.

The extension, however, generated widespread debate on the expediency of such expenditure as it will increase the budget deficit of the FG which would be financed through additional borrowing and hence further rise in the nation’s public debt which stood at N44.06 trillion as at end of September 2022.

The history of fuel subsidies is traceable to the ’70s, they were first introduced in Nigeria in the 1970s as a response to the oil price shock in 1973. However, despite numerous attempts at reform, Nigeria has never successfully removed fuel subsidies, in large part due to strong popular opposition to reform. Such subsidies come at a great cost: spending on other development objectives is lower; the distribution of resources to the state governments is reduced; the vast majority of the subsidy goes to better off Nigerians; and cheaper gasoline encourages greater pollution, congestion, and climate change. Despite this, a survey conducted by the ICTD indicates that 70 per cent of Nigerians oppose the reduction or removal of subsidies.

In debating the merits of fuel subsidy removal, it is important to understand who benefits the most from the program. Contrary to popular belief, according to the World Bank, it is the rich, not the poor who disproportionally benefit from Nigeria’s fuel subsidy. With the government subsidising the market to keep domestic fuel prices artificially low, it is those who consume the most that have a greater benefit from the subsidy.

Nigeria’s poor rely primarily on public transportation as such their per capita fuel consumption is significantly less than the country’s rich, who generally use private vehicles. Neighbouring countries also benefit significantly from Nigeria’s fuel subsidy through smuggling. In addition, the World Bank, for instance, in the development update had said the poorest 40 per cent in Nigeria consume less than 3 pe cent  of the total PMS in the country, highlighting that the rich were benefitting more from the subsidies.

The Federal Government has displayed outright treachery by sticking wholesomely to the importation of petroleum products as if there alone lies the solution. For instance, in sticking only with products importation, the NNPC is already claiming that the source of its subsidy is because of a higher landing cost than that of the PPPRA. Under the current subsidy regime, the NNPC claimed  it is under-recovery and has left the pump price at a band between N162 and N165 per litre. If you compare that with the PPPRA landing cost of N264.65 per litre there exists subsidy or an under recovery of N102.65 per litre according to the officials.

In the report, PwC noted that Nigeria is the second largest producer of oil in Africa, producing over 1.5 million bpd (as of January 2017). With proven crude oil reserve estimates of about 37 billion barrels as at 2015, Nigeria boasts of about 29 per  cent of the continent’s crude reserves (2nd in Africa). Nigeria is also one of the largest consumers of refined products in Africa (5th as at 2014, behind Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, and Morocco) and accounts for over 7 per cent of Africa’s refined products consumption.

It noted that in 2015, the consumption of refined products was estimated to be about 24 billion litres and products consumed include Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), Dual Purpose Kerosene (DPK) and Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK). To the detriment of national earnings, these products are majorly imported from United States, North-Western Europe and other sources.

The PwC went ahead to clearly outline how local refining was the way to go for Nigeria, arguing that imports currently account for over 80 per cent of Nigeria’s refined product supply, creating a huge potential for local refining. The West African market also holds significant potential as refineries such as SIR (Ivory Coast), SOGARA (Gabon) and SAR (Senegal) cannot meet the current demand for refined products in the region, estimated at 39 billion litres. There is an opportunity for potential uptake by neighbouring countries if the market has Nigeria’s refined products readily available.

The Federal Government should deploy all machineries in resolving issues relating to criminals activities surrounding the  nation’s energy sector. Saboteurs should be brought to book and be punished appropriately than playing politics with the issue of fuel subsidy.

Eventually, the ordinary Nigerian does not have direct benefits whether the fuel subsidy is removed or not considering the masquerading chains of corruption surrounding the energy sector from the regulators, marketers and oil thiefs.

Editorial

Gas explosions: Nigeria and its avoidable tragedies 

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Nigerians die daily for reasons  so avoidable it would make  a 19th century peasant weep.  The deaths are often a product of systemic wickedness, nonchalance, and greed. Too often have gas explosions claimed the lives of Nigerians untimely. Whether it is the leaders refusing to enforce the checks and balances for personal gain, or citizens selling defective gas cylinders, it all balls down to a collective aversion for kindness.

The internet is rife with news of this tragedy occurring in a Sisyphean cycle. Jolted by the cries of the populace, the leaders promise reprieve, release press statements and in the weeks that follow, little to nothing happens. “One must imagine Sisyphus happy,” Camus wrote. Unfortunately, our Nigerian dead imagine nothing.

While people relaxed from their labour, were preparing for the Workers Day celebrations, nine people including a pregnant woman were injured in Tuesday’s gas cylinder explosion at Alaba Lane, Alayabiagba Community of Ajegunle-Apapa, Lagos.

“The fire explosion started around 1:30 pm and immediately, two tricycles were burnt, school children coming back from school were affected. A particular young man was seriously affected as his body was peeling off, but rushed to the Gbagada General Hospital,” according to reports.

The usual suspect is, of course, negligence, as the Director of Lagos State Fire and Rescue Service, Margaret Adeseye, puts it: “preliminary investigation revealed that several various gas cylinders traded within the neighbourhood have one triggered from a susceptible leakage leading to the snapping of a high tension cable and resultant Fire.”

The explosion razed down “four commercial tricycles, six lock-up shops, a bungalow part of properties, while salvaging adjoining structures including a major fuel service station.” Children were hurt, the future of the nation plunged, as usual into avoidable misfortune.

The way out is through. The press releases are wonderful PR statements but they do not bring back the dead, as was the case in Ogun State recently where a truck explosion cost the nation another life. The leaders must enforce the checks and balances put in place. The law is no decoration.

We mustn’t wait until a politician’s family member is involved in a tragic gas accident before “banning” (as is the default response of the Nigerian leadership). The leaders must realise that such misfortunes are contagious, and money is hardly a bulwark against 3rd degree burns in a nation where all its doctors are fleeing.

Renewed Hope requires renewed action. This is all that Nigerians ask of its leaders. All agencies responsible for monitoring trucks, cylinders need to work together to defeat this peculiar evil. Like COVID-19, gas explosions are no respecter of persons.

Of course, citizens too must do their part and resist the allure of profit over the death of others. A society without empathy is headed for a dystopia. It will not matter the price of petrol or electricity tariff, if all that matters is the pursuit of super profit at the expense of one’s neighbour. We owe it to the dead to live fully and graciously. To escape, as we should, avoidable tragedies.

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Editorial

Nigeria must act now to mitigate flood disasters

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As the rainy season looms ahead, a palpable sense of concern grips the nation.The recent cautionary message from the                      Federal Government to 31 state governors  regarding the looming threat of floods from April to November serves as a wake-up call, demanding swift and concerted action from both state and federal authorities.

Presented by Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation Joseph Utsev, the 2024 Annual Flood Outlook paints a bleak picture, underscoring the urgent need for preemptive measures. It is not merely an emphasising advisory; it is a resounding call to arms.

The spectre of past flood calamities in Kano, Taraba, Lagos, and other states still haunts our collective memory.

The haunting images of devastated homes, displaced families, and shattered livelihoods serve as poignant reminders of the human toll exacted by our complacency.

It is imperative that we glean lessons from these tragedies and take proactive steps to forestall the impending catastrophe.

The warning issued by the Federal Government is crystal clear: floods are imminent, and the time to act is now.

The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency’s classification of 148 local government areas across 29 states, including Lagos, Kano, and Delta, as high flood-risk zones emphasising the gravity of the situation.

Every moment of inaction heightens the risk to countless lives and properties. State governors, local authorities, and relevant agencies must set aside differences and collaborate effectively to implement robust flood preparedness and mitigation measures.

From infrastructure reinforcement to early warning systems and community awareness campaigns, a comprehensive approach is imperative to safeguard vulnerable communities.

As responsible stewards of our nation’s welfare, we cannot afford to be caught off guard. Let us heed the warning, unite in purpose, and proactively address this looming threat.

The cost of inaction is too grave to contemplate, and the time to act decisively is now. This is not a drill.

The minister’s revelation that 31 states face high flood risks, while all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory will experience moderate flooding, demands immediate attention and collective action.

“The high flood-risk states are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe,” the Minister said.

We cannot afford to wait until the waters rise and lives are lost. The time to act is now. It’s imperative that federal and state governments, agencies, and local communities join forces to mitigate the impact of floods.

This requires a coordinated response, including public awareness campaigns, infrastructure upgrades, emergency preparedness plans, and investment in flood mitigation projects.

The future of our nation depends on it. Let us heed the warning and take proactive steps to build a more resilient Nigeria, where lives and properties are protected from the ravages of flooding. The clock is ticking; let us act now to avoid a catastrophe.

While 31 states face high flood risks, the remaining five states must also be proactive in their preparations. It’s not enough to simply warn residents to relocate from flood-prone areas; state governments must provide safe and conducive spaces for relocation, complete with essential services like relief materials, healthcare, and security.

This will help mitigate the trauma faced by displaced families. Citizens, too, have a critical role to play. They must be willing to relocate from their homes and comfort zones to prevent avoidable deaths and losses. The stark reality is that flood disasters are devastating, as seen in 2023 when 45 lives were lost, 171,545 persons displaced, and 22,666 homes partially damaged, with 5,358 others completely destroyed.

The economic toll was equally staggering, with a $4.6 billion bill that significantly dented Nigeria’s GDP. Let us learn from the past and take collective responsibility for flood preparedness. State and federal governments, agencies, and citizens must work together to build a more resilient nation, where lives and properties are protected from the ravages of flooding. The time to act is now.

In 2022, flooding claimed 662 citizens; 2.43 million others were displaced and 3,174 were injured nationwide, per NEMA.

The financial losses were estimated at $9.12 billion by the Federal Government, and by a United Nations agency at $7 billion. A UN report stated that food insecurity was aggravated in the country as 569,000 hectares of farmland were destroyed by the flood.

According to the then Minister of Water Resources, Suleiman Adamu, 178 LGAs in 32 states were declared “highly probable flood risk states.”

Although climate change remains a global concern, leading to flash floods, droughts, forest fires, and cyclones, the government must not make excuses.

They need to take lessons from previous floodings and replace their nonchalance with strategic actions and campaigns. They must do all they can to avoid the repetition of losses of lives and properties.

The citizens must play their part by clearing drainage in their vicinity, cultivating good waste disposal and environmentally friendly culture. To entrench this, the government must place strict surveillance and enforce stiff penalties against erring residents.

State governments should demolish structures erected on flood paths to enable rainwater to drain appropriately.

NGOs in the environmental niche should activate campaigns distilled in local languages through the media to prepare citizens for the flood.

The federal and state governments should be proactive in the deployment of ecological funds to provide guardrails against natural disasters. This must be used for pre-emptive measures like building bridges, desilting rivers, evacuating canals and drainage, and building dams and levees. The dams would help preserve excess rainfall to irrigate farmland during the dry season.

The government must fully embrace its onerous duty to safeguard lives and properties.

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Editorial

Preparing for a challenging farming season: NiMet’s forecast and the need for proactive action

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As the farming season beckons, Nigerian farmers are bracing themselves for a turbulent ride. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency’s (NiMet) forecast of a delayed and shorter rainy season has sent shockwaves across the agricultural community, threatening to upend the delicate balance of our food security.

With millions of farmers poised to plant their crops, the clock is ticking. Will our policymakers and stakeholders rise to the challenge, or will we reap a harvest of regret? According to NiMet, this year’s rainy season will commence later than usual, with the central states expecting the onset of rains around May 29 and the northern states around June 13.

Moreover, the season is predicted to end earlier than usual, between October 6 and November, in many states. This forecast raises concerns for farmers, as a shorter rainy season can lead to reduced crop yields and increased risk of drought.

To mitigate these challenges, NiMet advises planting early-maturing crop varieties at the beginning of the season. This is a wise recommendation, as it allows farmers to adapt to the predicted weather patterns and minimize potential losses.

With predictions ranging from October 6 to November, regions including Yobe, Jigawa, Sokoto, and Lagos are bracing for a shorter agricultural window. This forecast emphasised the critical importance of proactive planning and early adoption of fast-maturing crop varieties.

The essence of NiMet’s warning is clear: farmers must act swiftly to secure the necessary resources for a successful harvest. From fertilizers to seeds, the time to procure vital inputs is now, to mitigate potential setbacks and ensure a fruitful season. Traditionally, this period marks the commencement of government initiatives to facilitate the purchase and distribution of agricultural inputs. However, the silence on this front is deafening.

Instead of prioritising the long-term sustainability of agriculture, many officials seem fixated on short-term palliative measures, neglecting the imperative of future agricultural prosperity. As the countdown to the abbreviated season begins, the call to action grows louder. Farmers must seize the moment, equipping themselves for the challenges ahead, while policymakers must refocus their attention on fostering a resilient agricultural sector for generations to come.

Only through collective effort and foresight can we navigate the uncertain terrain ahead and ensure a bountiful harvest for all. As the federal government pledges to revamp the textile industry, Nigerian farmers are grappling with a more pressing concern – the exorbitant cost of fertilizers and other essential inputs. A bag of fertilizer now costs a staggering N48,000, forcing farmers to either purchase substandard products or resort to traditional alternatives, resulting in poor yields and revenue losses. The high costs of seeds, herbicides, pesticides, labour, and fuel have pushed small-holder farmers to the brink.

Despite President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s assurances of support, including a promise to release 225,000 metric tons of fertilizers, seedlings, and other inputs in August 2023, concrete actions are yet to be seen. With food prices soaring nationwide, it is imperative that the government takes immediate steps to address the plight of farmers, who are crucial to the nation’s food security.

We urge the government to translate its promises into tangible support for farmers, including affordable access to quality inputs, to ensure a bountiful harvest and a food-secure future for Nigeria. We commend the Central Bank of Nigeria’s release of 2.15 million bags of fertilizer to the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security. However, it is alarming that there has been no update on the distribution of this vital commodity since the handover over a month ago.

Furthermore, we urge state governments to take their responsibilities in ensuring adequate input supply to farmers more seriously. We also call on the federal government to implement policies that facilitate the supply of fertilizers, seeds, and other inputs to the markets, thereby controlling rising prices.

The Presidential Fertilizer Initiative needs to be reviewed to ensure fertilizer blending plants resume production. Our farmers urgently need government support to access necessary inputs for successful cultivation. As the rains continue to falter, Nigerian farmers face an uphill battle. We urge the government to seed hope by providing essential resources – quality seeds, fertilizers, and equipment – to help them weather the storm.

Climate-resilient agriculture initiatives and weather insurance schemes will also help farmers adapt and thrive. But, there’s a greater challenge to tackle – the menace of bandits and militias terrorizing farmers, forcing them off their lands, and threatening our food security.

It’s time for decisive action! The government must act swiftly to protect our farmers, their farms, and our collective future. Let’s join forces to cultivate a brighter tomorrow, where our farmers can plant, grow, and harvest without fear. The time to act is now, for the sake of our nation’s food security and stability. Let’s sow the seeds of resilience and reap a bountiful harvest for generations to come!

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