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FG to save N8trn annually from fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification — Oyedele

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The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Taiwo Oyedele said the Nigerian government will save N8 trillion annually from the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates.

Speaking at a panel session at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Oyedele emphasised the importance of using the saved funds to alleviate the suffering of the average Nigerian.

Oyedele spoke during a panel session at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry 2024 Economic Outlook and Budget Analysis.

He, therefore, said it was critical for the government to spend the amount saved from the two policies to ameliorate the suffering of the average Nigerian.

He said, “The Nigerian people made sacrifices as a result of the fuel subsidy removal of the government; that is N4 trillion savings a year. We did naira floatation. It is not perfect. We are also saving another N4 trillion. So we are having about roughly N8tn transferred from the private pockets of the people to the government.

“So, what we are saying to the government is — can we be intentional in spending this N8 trillion to make sure that it impacts the people most positively? Starting with multidimensional poverty. Why is it that more than 133 million people in Nigeria are living in multidimensional poverty? So these are the conversations we are having now. We want to build a platform where we can track how these monies are being spent.”

He added, “In the committee, we tried to look at the most pressing issues we face as a country — inflation, forex instability, lack of investments. One of our recommendations is for the government to suspend some taxes. We call them nuisance taxes because they frustrate people, and we can’t even see the money in the government treasury.”
According to Oyedele, there is an urgent need to create digital opportunities for the teeming youthful population because Nigeria has enough capacity to generate $20 billion annually from the technology sector.

Hinting on some of the recommendations the panel has made to the Federal Government, Oyedele said there was an urgent need to promote exports, including services and intellectual property because, “Before you start exporting goods, you can export services and intangibles.”

He also said that out of the $20 billion diaspora remittances recorded in 2023, more than 90 percent of the funds did not arrive Nigeria in foreign currencies because of existing loopholes which allow middlemen to divert the foreign currencies and pay the recipients of the funds in naira.

He added, “For example, just asking Nigerian companies and businesses to pay taxes in dollars is about $3.5 billion annually, but we sat and thought about it, and wondered how the idea came about.
“How does it help us, that a Nigerian company will go to the market to go and look for the little dollars in Nigeria so it can use it to pay the government of Nigeria? So, just amend the law and you will take that pressure away.”

Also speaking, the Director General of the Budget Office, Ben Akabueze, expressed concern that the country’s penchant for operating budgets with room for deficit in the past three decades had left a debt profile that has raised concern.

Akabueze said, “In our current circumstance, we believe that our biggest fiscal challenge is raising public revenues. That is, the low public revenues against the background of the ever-increasing demand for public goods and services.

“For over two decades, we have been running a deficit in our budget. These deficits have accumulated. They have been funded through debt consistently. The truth is that we haven’t paid back the debt. Now we are at a point where there are concerns about our debt. So we can’t continue with the deficit. The deficit for the 2024 budget is about 3.8 percent of our GDP.”

Speaking further, Akabueze dismissed criticisms surrounding inordinate expenditure on the part of the government.
He noted that Nigeria was not spending enough and that emphasis should be placed on effective spending and not less spending.

He added, “Sometimes people ask — why don’t you cut expenditure? That’s not a feasible option. In the first place, we are not spending enough. If you look at our public expenditure to GDP ratio, it is below what it should be. So, spending less is not an option for us. Spending more efficiently — yes.”

On his part, the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives, Bismarck Rewane, said key economic challenges have continued to plague the Nigerian economy.

These challenges, according to him, include sub-optimal and non-inclusive growth, increasing income inequality, high poverty and unemployment rate, spiraling inflation, widening fiscal imbalances, and currency pressures.
He also noted that Nigeria’s inflation maintains its upward trend, largely driven by monetary and cost-push factors.
He said external debt service to export ratio shows the external sector is vulnerable.

Rewane also blamed lack of transparency and clear policy direction, lack of effective price discovery measure, capital controls and inefficiency, and high speculation/ arbitrage activities for the protracted forex crisis in the country.

Money market

Lagos, India to boost trade partnership

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Confederation of Indian Industry have signed an agreement to boost trade partnership.

In a memorandum of understanding in Lagos on Tuesday, both parties observed that the agreement would enhance avenues for effective collaborations.

Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Deputy President Knut Ulvmoen said that the partnership’s focus was to leverage the trade capacity of both parties.

Ulvmoen said that both parties would explore capacity in Information and Communication Technology, medical, training, agriculture, manufacturing and export, among others.

He acknowledged what he described as robust and enduring trade relations between Nigeria and India.

He noted that over the years, both nations had witnessed a steady growth in bilateral trade with significant contributions from various sectors.

“Today’s meeting serves as a platform to, not only strengthen the existing partnerships, but also to forge new alliances that will contribute to the sustainable growth and development of both nations.

“Together, we must seize this moment to identify synergies, exchange expertise, and explore innovative solutions to economic challenges.

“Let us leverage the collective wisdom of our industries to develop actionable strategies that will drive inclusive growth, foster entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness,” he said.

Indian High Commissioner Shri Balasubramanian expressed his belief in shared growth and prosperity by both countries.

He also emphasised the importance of Nigerian-Indian business collaboration.

Balasubramanian stated that the government of India was making efforts to build capacity in trade, seeking private sectors’ partnership to identify projects that could be profitable to the trade structure of both countries.

“The opportunities existing between both countries are enormous as more than 155 Indian companies in Nigeria employ many Nigerians.

“From oil to steel; to healthcare, we are willing to link Nigerians up with their counterparts in India as we explore avenues of collaboration and partnership,” he said.

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Naira remains at N1,350 as CBN targets FX inflow for liquidity boost

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The naira on Tuesday steadied at 1,350 per US dollar on the parallel market, popularly called black market.

On Monday morning, the naira opened the foreign exchange (FX) market at the same rate before closing at N1,360/$1 on the same day at the black market.

At the official market known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira on Monday fell to 1,419.11 per dollar, the lowest since March 13, 2024 at the official FX market, following slowing inflows occasioned by the withdrawal of funds by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs).

The intraday high closed at N1,451 per dollar on Monday, weaker than N1,410 closed on Friday. The intraday low also depreciated marginally to N1,060 on Monday as against N1,051/$1 closed on Friday at NAFEM, data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange indicated.

Dollars supplied by willing buyers and willing sellers declined by 52.16 percent to $147.83 million on Monday from $309.01 million recorded on Friday.

On day to day trading, the naira weakened by 5.63 percent as the dollar was quoted at N1,419.11 on Monday as against N1,339.23 quoted on Friday at NAFEM.

During the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, emphasised the critical need to attract inflows to maintain liquidity in the foreign exchange market and stabilize the exchange rate.

In his statement, Governor Cardoso highlighted the importance of addressing inflationary pressures through exchange rate management to safeguard both price stability and long-term economic growth.

“Failure to tame inflationary pressure using the exchange rate channel may jeopardise not only price stability but also long-term growth,” stated Governor Cardoso.

Addressing concerns raised at the March 2024 MPC meeting, Governor Cardoso emphasised the need to reduce negative real interest rates to attract capital flows and enhance liquidity in the FX market. He stressed the significance of attracting capital flows through foreign portfolio investments and moderating exchange rate pressures to mitigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, particularly in Nigeria’s import-dependent economy.

Commenting on the monetary situation, Mustapha Akinkunmi highlighted a decline in Nigeria’s reserve money by 24.91 percent to approximately N22.2 trillion by the end of February 2024. Despite this, broad money (M3) supply increased to N93.7 trillion, contributing to inflationary pressures. Nigeria’s external reserves also decreased to US$32.87 billion as of March 19, 2024, from US$33.68 billion in February 2024.

Although current reserves cover imports for 5.7 months of goods only and 4.5 months of goods and services, the country’s ability to repay short-term debts using reserves exceeded the threshold at 104.0 percent, he said.

According to him, the reserves-to-broad money ratio of 33.1 percent surpassed the 20.0 percent threshold, indicating Nigeria’s capacity to manage capital flows effectively.

Governor Cardoso’s emphasis on attracting inflows and managing exchange rate pressures underscores the CBN’s commitment to maintaining stability in the FX market and combating inflationary challenges in Nigeria’s economy.

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Money market

Mobile channel most vulnerable, as financial institutions lose N17.67bn to fraudsters in 2023

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Latest report by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) on Annual Fraud Landscape (January to December 2023) has revealed that commercial banks, Point of Sales (PoS) operators and others lost about N17.67 billion to fraudsters in 2023.

The report published on its website on Monday identified mobile channels as the most vulnerable avenue for fraudsters notably Web and POS businesses.

The report noted that fraud perpetrated via mobile channels increased by five percent compared to the previous year.

It also suggested some of the regulations inputted to check fraud in financial institutions need detailed examination, modification and reinforcement.

According to the statistics revealed by the report, fraud count dropped by six percent to 95,620, as actual loss from fraud grew by 23 percent in 2023 when compared to 2022 with the first quarter being the month with the highest fraud volume in 2023 and the fourth quarter being the month with the highest fraud value.

It also disclosed that the month of May recorded the highest fraud count of 11,716, followed by February with 9,492 while October saw the highest actual loss in 2023 at N3.7 billion, followed by January with N2.7 billion. It said the count of Web Fraud decreased by 38 percent and ATM fraud recorded a 64 percent reduction from 2022 to 2023.

Also, in 2023, people aged 40 and above remained the primary targets of fraudsters, which NIBSS said signified a persistent focus on the targeting strategy of fraudsters.

“This sustained trend emphasises the enduring appeal of the demographic group as potential victims, reinforcing the need for continuous efforts to educate and protect individuals in this category from fraudulent activities,” NIBSS said.

In 2023, a total of 80,658 unique customers fell for the gimmicks of fraudsters which is four per cent less than 84,130 customers recorded in the previous year.

“This decline, though apparent, does not diminish the severity of the issue, urging the financial industry to remain vigilant, enhance security measures and collaboratively address the tenacious challenges posed by fraud,” it said.

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