Analysis

Who becomes Nigeria’s 10th Senate President?

Published

1 year ago

April 28, 2023

NewsDirect

The recent National Assembly election yielded unexpected results, with several minority parties gaining substantial seats in the Red Chamber.

As a result, some ranking lawmakers who had been eyeing the position of Senate President may now have to relinquish their ambitions.

Although the ruling party will still have a majority, it will need to work with opposition lawmakers to pass critical legislation.

The 10th Senate is set to be inaugurated on June 13, 2023, after the incoming President proclaims the 10th National Assembly.

To gain an edge over their competitors, senators-elect vying for the number one seat in the 10th Senate are already forming alliances and making realignments.

According to the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) won 56 seats, followed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with 32 seats. Other parties with seats in the Senate include the Labour Party (7), the New Nigeria Peoples Party (2), the Social Democratic Party (2), the All Progressives Grand Alliance (1), and the Young Progressives Party (1). Of the 109 seats, 101 have been declared so far, with eight seats remaining unfilled.

Given that the APC won more than half of the seats, it is expected that the party will produce both the Senate President and the Deputy Senate President in accordance with tradition.

The race for the Senate presidency among both the ranking and first-time APC senators-elect promises to be tough and intriguing. The personalities, political clout, and track records of the senators-elect who are rumored to be interested in leading the Senate will be on display when the race begins. It is worth noting that the APC will endorse any contender who has been duly considered for zoning and who emerges victorious.

Among those who may be vying for the position of Senate president are the incumbent Ahmad Lawan; former Abia State Governor and Chief Whip of the Senate Orji Uzor Kalu; former Senate Minority Leader and ex-Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Godswill Akpabio; former National Chairman of the APC, Adams Oshiomhole; the current Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriation, Barau Jibrin, and Senator Mohammed Sani Musa, who previously ran for the position of national chairman of the APC.

The contest among these qualified lawmakers and any other potential candidates is expected to be unpredictable and challenging. The determinative factors for any candidate to emerge as Senate president will likely depend on whether the APC will zone the position to a specific geopolitical zone. With the President-elect from the Southwest and the Vice President-elect from the Northeast, it is expected, but not mandatory, that the positions of Senate President, Deputy Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives will be evenly distributed among the remaining four geopolitical zones of the Northwest, North-Central, Southeast, and South-south.

The APC leadership has the power to either endorse a candidate or remain neutral in the race for the Senate presidency. However, the party typically prefers to have control over the leadership of both chambers of the National Assembly to ensure a smooth working relationship with the incoming President. The APC may also choose to allow a contest among its Senators-elect and let the most popular candidate emerge.

In the past, the party has endorsed consensus candidates for leadership positions, while leaving the presidential ticket open for competition. It is unclear if the APC will use this approach to choose the next Senate President and Deputy Senate President, or if they will be elected democratically according to the Senate Standing Orders 2015 (as amended).

Under these provisions, any Senator, regardless of party affiliation, can nominate or be nominated for the position of Senate President or Deputy Senate President. There is no limit to the number of nominees. Voting shall be conducted through electronic or secret ballot, and the clerk of the National Assembly will act as the returning officer.

Order 2(1-2) of the Senate Standing Orders 2015 requires Senators-elect to assemble at a designated time and place for the first sitting of the new Senate, as proclaimed by the President of Nigeria. Order 3(1) allows Senators-elect to participate in the election of the Senate President and Deputy President before taking the oath of office.

(2)The ranking of Senators for the purpose of nominating presiding officers and appointing principal officers and other officers of the Senate or parliamentary delegations shall follow this order: (i) Senators who have been re-elected the most number of times, (ii) senators who were previously members of the House of Representatives, and (iii) senators elected for the first time.

The election of the Senate president shall be conducted in the following manner according to Order 3 subsection 3(a), 3(b), 3(e) (i-ii), 3(h), and 3(i):

(a) A Senator-elect shall propose another senator-elect to the Senate to be president of the Senate and shall move that such senator-elect “do take the chair of the Senate as president of the Senate” by addressing the clerk.

(b) The nominated Senator-elect shall inform the Senate whether they accept the nomination and may proceed to address the Senate.

(e) When two or more senators-elect are nominated and seconded as Senate President, the election shall be conducted either by electronic voting or by secret ballot. In the latter case, the clerks-at-table will use the list of senators-elect of the Senate, and each senator-elect will be given a ballot paper to cast their vote. The proposers and seconders will act as Tellers.

(h) There shall be no debate during the election of the Senate President, and no question of privilege may be raised.

(i) All senators-elect are entitled to participate in the voting for Senate President and Deputy Senate President.

Several Senators are expected to compete for the position of Senate President and Deputy Senate President. Their chances of winning or losing are outlined below.

Orji Kalu

Kalu’s supporters believe that Tinubu will form an inclusive government and bring in APC leaders from the South-East geopolitical zone. They think that Tinubu, being aware of the fact that no Igbo person has held the presidency since 1999, will support the idea of a South-Easterner becoming the number three citizen. Furthermore, Kalu’s strategists argue that his ranking as a principal officer and his Christian faith should make him a favorable candidate, in addition to being an Igbo.

Barau Jibrin

Senator Barau Jibrin, the current Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriation, is said to be running for Senate President. Supporters of Jibrin argue that he has demonstrated his political influence in Kano politics by winning his election as the only APC Senator-elect in the Kano State, despite the strong challenge posed by Musa Kwankwaso’s NNPP in Kano South and Kano North senatorial districts. Jibrin’s supporters also point out that his zone contributed the most votes for the APC in the February 25 general elections, and therefore, he should be rewarded for his hard work.

Born in 1959, Jibrin hails from Kabo Township in the Kabo Local Government Area of Kano State. He holds a bachelor’s degree in accounting, a master’s certificate in Financial Management and Pricing, a master’s certificate in Management, and an MBA. He also holds a certificate in Financial Management for business decisions from Cornell University in the United States.

Before entering politics, Jibrin worked briefly in the accounting department of the Kano State Foundation before resigning in 1992 to start his own business. His success in the private sector prepared him for a career in politics, and he was elected to the House of Representatives in 1999, representing Tarauni Federal Constituency of Kano State. While in the House of Representatives, he served as the Chairman of the House Committee on Appropriations and was a member of the House of Representatives’ Committee on Power.

After leaving the House of Representatives, Jibrin returned to his private business while still maintaining an interest in the political affairs of his native Kano State.

Adams Oshiomhole

The unexpected entry of Adams Oshiomhole into the race has caught the attention of political analysts following the developments in the National Assembly. Oshiomhole, a former National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), a two-term Governor of Edo State, and former National President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), is considered a first-timer in the race for the Senate presidency.

Despite this, those who support his candidacy argue that anything is possible and that his lack of experience in the Senate does not necessarily disqualify him. They point out that the rules of the red chamber do not specifically require that only ranking Senators can become Senate presidents, which means that Oshiomhole is indeed qualified for the position.

It remains to be seen how far Oshiomhole will go in the race for the Senate presidency, but time will tell if he emerges victorious.

Godswill Akpabio

It is interesting to note that the ex-Minority Leader of the Senate has always had ambitions to reach the highest positions in any organisation he is a part of.

When he first entered the Eighth Senate, Akpabio managed to surpass a senior Senator, James Manager, and became a principal officer. He maintained this position until he defected to the APC party during Bukola Saraki’s tenure as Senate President. Eventually, he went on to become the Minister of Niger-Delta Affairs.

Akpabio’s ambitions did not stop there, as he even aspired to become the presidential candidate for the APC party. However, he eventually withdrew from the race and endorsed Tinubu during the party’s primaries.

Abdulaziz Yari

Abdulaziz Yari, the former Governor of Zamfara State, is reportedly vying for the position of Senate President. However, his chances may be slim due to certain circumstances.

In the 9th National Assembly, Yari was unable to secure a Senate position due to a Supreme Court ruling that nullified the election of all APC politicians as a result of a dispute between his faction and that of Senator Kabiru Marafa. Currently, both Yari and Marafa are senators-elect.

Considering that Yari is a first-time Senator, it may prove difficult for him to win the Senate President ticket, especially with other more experienced and ranking senators in the mix.

David Umahi

Governor Umahi, who hails from Ebonyi State, is set to make his debut appearance in the Red Chamber as a Senator. He has already expressed his desire to become the Senate President, representing the South-East geopolitical zone. His hopes are hinged on the possibility that the position would be zoned to the East.

Despite facing various obstacles, Umahi decided to leave his former political party and join the All Progressives Congress (APC). His intention was to run for the presidential ticket of the APC, but he was unsuccessful in defeating his rival, Tinubu, during the party primaries. However, he later emerged victorious in a fresh senatorial primary election after his opponent withdrew from the race.

Osita Izunaso

Senator Osita Izunaso, representing Imo West, has thrown his hat into the ring for the presidency of the Senate. He made his intentions known during the week when he presented his Certificate of Return to President Muhammadu Buhari at the Aso Rock Villa. Izunaso informed the President of his interest in vying for the top leadership position in the Senate.

He believes that, as the most senior lawmaker from the South-East and South-South zones, he has a better chance of becoming the next Senate President. Notably, Izunaso had retired Senator Arthur Nzeribe, a maverick politician, after preventing him from obtaining the PDP ticket. When asked about his prospects against major contenders like Senators Orji Uzor Kalu and Akpabio, he refused to comment and simply reiterated that he is the oldest contender and will wait for the party’s decision.

Analysis

Wike, Obi romance: Can this upstage Tinubu, Atiku?

Published

2 years ago

September 1, 2022

NewsDirect

Joel Oladele, Abuja

Nigeria 2023 general elections keep proving to be one of the most unpredictable elections in the history of the country as so many uncertainties spring up everyday. Especially with the National Consultative Front, NCFront, the umbrella body of the ‘3rd Force’ Movement adoption of the Labour Party (LP) as its party to align with for the elections and also the recent romance between Mr. Peter Obi of LP and Governor Wike of Rivers State.

Basically, the past presidential elections in Nigeria have always been between two major parties and others. However, the story seems to be changing as the race is now between 3 political Titans: Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)’s presidential candidate after polling a total number of 1271 delegates votes to defeat the first and second runners-up, Rotimi Amaechi and Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo who scored a total number of 316 and 235 delegate votes respectively.

Another bigwig in the race is the flag bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who polled 371 votes against Mr Wike’s 237 votes to emerge as the PDP’s presidential candidate.

The third force to reckon with as far as 2023 elections is concerned is Mr Obi of Labour Party (LP). Obi, who was Mr Abubakar’s running mate in the PDP in the 2019 presidential election was among the PDP presidential aspirants this year.

He announced his resignation from the PDP a few days to the party presidential primary, saying there were practices in the party that were inconsistent with his “belief and persona.” He defected to the LP where he later emerged the party’s 2023 presidential candidate.

The former Governor of Anambra and presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) Peter Obi who can be likened to the biblical stone rejected by the builder is fast becoming the Chief cornerstone as many now believe he can pull a surprise victory in the 2023 presidential election.

However, it’s not going to be all rosy for Mr Obi as there are odds against and for him.

The 2023 election is a battle of supremacy between the political elites and Nigerian masses with Peter Obi as an arrowhead.

Part of the recent factors in favour of Peter Obi is his alleged alliance with some “big boys” in Nigeria politics.

One of such is the Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike who has been at loggerheads with the PDP’s presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar after the presidential primaries. The crisis deepened amidst speculations that Mr Wike may dump the PDP due to his failed bid to become Mr Atiku’s running mate for the 2023 election.

Atiku had picked Delta State Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa, as his running mate. Consequently, Wike was rumoured to have joined the ruling All Progressives Congress recently but he denied it.

Amidst the crisis, Peter Obi, in June visited Governor Nyesom Wike, at his private residence in Port Harcourt, the state capital, where he had a closed-door meeting with the governor.

The details of the meeting wasn’t known as they both declined speaking with journalists after the meeting but it can’t be far from an attempt by the LP presidential candidate to woo him to his camp ahead of the 2023 presidential election.

To further confirm the speculations, Peter Obi again met with the Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, and the former governor of Ondo State, Olusegun Mimiko on Monday night.

Also at the meeting were top politicians across the country, like former Cross River Governor, Donald Duke; Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom; Abia State Governor, Okezie Ikpeazu, Gombe State ex-governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo; and a host of others at Wike’s private residence in Port Harcourt, Rivers State.

Mimiko on his Twitter page shared a photo with the politicians with the caption “Nice to share some time last night with @GovWike @Donald_Duke @PeterObi @HEDankwambo @GovSamuelOrtom, @GovernorIkpeazu, Mohammed Adoke SAN and many other friends.”

Although the former Ondo State governor, who also rose into power under the platform of Labour Party in 2009 did not give a reason for the meeting, it won’t be completely wrong to conclude that it all geared towards 2023 elections.

Governor Wike has been agitating for a power shift to southern Nigeria in 2023 and if this romance between Obi and these politicians is anything to be taken serious, then it may spell a doom to the duo of APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of PDP.

The question is how?

The Northern part of the country has a higher percentage of the total number of registered voters according to the recent statistics by the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) compare to the South. However, the northern votes(predominantly Muslims) will be divided between Tinubu (Muslim), Atiku (Muslim) and Kwankwaso(Muslim).

It then means whoever will emerge as the winner will need a reasonable number of votes from the South and the permutations are majorly in favour of Obi.

Governor Wike’s influence in South South and South East regions cannot be underrated. First, his state, Rivers, is one of the states with the highest number of voters in the country and he’s well received by his people due to his developmental projects across the state.

Secondly, the two regions had over the years been dominated by PDP and if Wike succeeds in winning most of their governors to the camp of Obi under the umbrella of the Southern President agenda, then APC and PDP might not have a good outing in the two regions.

For the South West where the APC presidential candidate came from, the region has no doubt been divided along religious lines due to the Muslim/Muslim ticket of APC. Although few people don’t care about religion as all they are after is “Omo wa ni, e je o see.” Meaning, he’s our kinsman, let’s support him to win.

Asiwaju last month announced the former Governor of Borno State, Senator Kashim Shettima as his running mate, a decision that has upset many Christians across the country. The South West is predominantly Christian and if the music about the religion card continues, APC might not get as many votes as expected in the region.

For Atiku, South is fast becoming a no go area due to tribal and religious sentiments at play against him. Many Southerners believe after the incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim from the Nothern extraction, the fair thing is for the power to shift to the South, not just to the South but a Christian.

No doubt, Obi is the arrowhead presidential candidate from the South-East extraction of Nigeria. If he can have 20%- 25% of the votes from the North, he might be victorious come February 2023.

Some analysts have suggested one of the ways he can achieve this is by “joining an alliance with other forces in the North; despite he picked a Muslim Northerner, Yusuf Baba-Ahmed as his running mate he still needs more allies who command huge followership in order to appeal to mass majority votes from the region.”

He had earlier approached Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerians People’s Party for an alliance but the move proved abortive as the candidates failed to reach a compromise on who becomes the presidential/vice-presidential candidate status.

With all these alliances and the already existing support Peter Obi enjoys from young Nigerians, who see him as the youngest amongst the trio and someone who can bring about a fresh air in the political landscape of the country, upstaging Tinubu and Atiku is not impossible.

Another important factor in favour of Obi is the fact that most Nigerians are tired of APC and PDP and there might be a protest vote come 2023.

Obi was underrated until recently. As a matter of fact, opposition parties have tagged him Twitter President. However, the popularity he enjoys on social media does not end there as the number of his offline supporters now grow day by day.

Many of them are not even waiting for him to give them money to campaign like the usual practice in Nigeria, instead they are ready to spend their money voluntarily to support the movement. All they want is a New Nigeria and they feel only Peter Obi has what it takes to achieve that amongst the candidates.

If this energy is sustained, Obi might be able to spring surprises at the poll and what is considered to be a small river can eventually grow to a big ocean. The experienced swimmers should therefore watch out, otherwise they get drowned.