The recent National Assembly election yielded unexpected results, with several minority parties gaining substantial seats in the Red Chamber.
As a result, some ranking lawmakers who had been eyeing the position of Senate President may now have to relinquish their ambitions.
Although the ruling party will still have a majority, it will need to work with opposition lawmakers to pass critical legislation.
The 10th Senate is set to be inaugurated on June 13, 2023, after the incoming President proclaims the 10th National Assembly.
To gain an edge over their competitors, senators-elect vying for the number one seat in the 10th Senate are already forming alliances and making realignments.
According to the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) won 56 seats, followed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with 32 seats. Other parties with seats in the Senate include the Labour Party (7), the New Nigeria Peoples Party (2), the Social Democratic Party (2), the All Progressives Grand Alliance (1), and the Young Progressives Party (1). Of the 109 seats, 101 have been declared so far, with eight seats remaining unfilled.
Given that the APC won more than half of the seats, it is expected that the party will produce both the Senate President and the Deputy Senate President in accordance with tradition.
The race for the Senate presidency among both the ranking and first-time APC senators-elect promises to be tough and intriguing. The personalities, political clout, and track records of the senators-elect who are rumored to be interested in leading the Senate will be on display when the race begins. It is worth noting that the APC will endorse any contender who has been duly considered for zoning and who emerges victorious.
Among those who may be vying for the position of Senate president are the incumbent Ahmad Lawan; former Abia State Governor and Chief Whip of the Senate Orji Uzor Kalu; former Senate Minority Leader and ex-Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Godswill Akpabio; former National Chairman of the APC, Adams Oshiomhole; the current Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriation, Barau Jibrin, and Senator Mohammed Sani Musa, who previously ran for the position of national chairman of the APC.
The contest among these qualified lawmakers and any other potential candidates is expected to be unpredictable and challenging. The determinative factors for any candidate to emerge as Senate president will likely depend on whether the APC will zone the position to a specific geopolitical zone. With the President-elect from the Southwest and the Vice President-elect from the Northeast, it is expected, but not mandatory, that the positions of Senate President, Deputy Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives will be evenly distributed among the remaining four geopolitical zones of the Northwest, North-Central, Southeast, and South-south.
The APC leadership has the power to either endorse a candidate or remain neutral in the race for the Senate presidency. However, the party typically prefers to have control over the leadership of both chambers of the National Assembly to ensure a smooth working relationship with the incoming President. The APC may also choose to allow a contest among its Senators-elect and let the most popular candidate emerge.
In the past, the party has endorsed consensus candidates for leadership positions, while leaving the presidential ticket open for competition. It is unclear if the APC will use this approach to choose the next Senate President and Deputy Senate President, or if they will be elected democratically according to the Senate Standing Orders 2015 (as amended).
Under these provisions, any Senator, regardless of party affiliation, can nominate or be nominated for the position of Senate President or Deputy Senate President. There is no limit to the number of nominees. Voting shall be conducted through electronic or secret ballot, and the clerk of the National Assembly will act as the returning officer.
Order 2(1-2) of the Senate Standing Orders 2015 requires Senators-elect to assemble at a designated time and place for the first sitting of the new Senate, as proclaimed by the President of Nigeria. Order 3(1) allows Senators-elect to participate in the election of the Senate President and Deputy President before taking the oath of office.
(2)The ranking of Senators for the purpose of nominating presiding officers and appointing principal officers and other officers of the Senate or parliamentary delegations shall follow this order: (i) Senators who have been re-elected the most number of times, (ii) senators who were previously members of the House of Representatives, and (iii) senators elected for the first time.
The election of the Senate president shall be conducted in the following manner according to Order 3 subsection 3(a), 3(b), 3(e) (i-ii), 3(h), and 3(i):
(a) A Senator-elect shall propose another senator-elect to the Senate to be president of the Senate and shall move that such senator-elect “do take the chair of the Senate as president of the Senate” by addressing the clerk.
(b) The nominated Senator-elect shall inform the Senate whether they accept the nomination and may proceed to address the Senate.
(e) When two or more senators-elect are nominated and seconded as Senate President, the election shall be conducted either by electronic voting or by secret ballot. In the latter case, the clerks-at-table will use the list of senators-elect of the Senate, and each senator-elect will be given a ballot paper to cast their vote. The proposers and seconders will act as Tellers.
(h) There shall be no debate during the election of the Senate President, and no question of privilege may be raised.
(i) All senators-elect are entitled to participate in the voting for Senate President and Deputy Senate President.
Several Senators are expected to compete for the position of Senate President and Deputy Senate President. Their chances of winning or losing are outlined below.
Orji Kalu
Kalu’s supporters believe that Tinubu will form an inclusive government and bring in APC leaders from the South-East geopolitical zone. They think that Tinubu, being aware of the fact that no Igbo person has held the presidency since 1999, will support the idea of a South-Easterner becoming the number three citizen. Furthermore, Kalu’s strategists argue that his ranking as a principal officer and his Christian faith should make him a favorable candidate, in addition to being an Igbo.
Barau Jibrin
Senator Barau Jibrin, the current Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriation, is said to be running for Senate President. Supporters of Jibrin argue that he has demonstrated his political influence in Kano politics by winning his election as the only APC Senator-elect in the Kano State, despite the strong challenge posed by Musa Kwankwaso’s NNPP in Kano South and Kano North senatorial districts. Jibrin’s supporters also point out that his zone contributed the most votes for the APC in the February 25 general elections, and therefore, he should be rewarded for his hard work.
Born in 1959, Jibrin hails from Kabo Township in the Kabo Local Government Area of Kano State. He holds a bachelor’s degree in accounting, a master’s certificate in Financial Management and Pricing, a master’s certificate in Management, and an MBA. He also holds a certificate in Financial Management for business decisions from Cornell University in the United States.
Before entering politics, Jibrin worked briefly in the accounting department of the Kano State Foundation before resigning in 1992 to start his own business. His success in the private sector prepared him for a career in politics, and he was elected to the House of Representatives in 1999, representing Tarauni Federal Constituency of Kano State. While in the House of Representatives, he served as the Chairman of the House Committee on Appropriations and was a member of the House of Representatives’ Committee on Power.
After leaving the House of Representatives, Jibrin returned to his private business while still maintaining an interest in the political affairs of his native Kano State.
Adams Oshiomhole
The unexpected entry of Adams Oshiomhole into the race has caught the attention of political analysts following the developments in the National Assembly. Oshiomhole, a former National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), a two-term Governor of Edo State, and former National President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), is considered a first-timer in the race for the Senate presidency.
Despite this, those who support his candidacy argue that anything is possible and that his lack of experience in the Senate does not necessarily disqualify him. They point out that the rules of the red chamber do not specifically require that only ranking Senators can become Senate presidents, which means that Oshiomhole is indeed qualified for the position.
It remains to be seen how far Oshiomhole will go in the race for the Senate presidency, but time will tell if he emerges victorious.
Godswill Akpabio
It is interesting to note that the ex-Minority Leader of the Senate has always had ambitions to reach the highest positions in any organisation he is a part of.
When he first entered the Eighth Senate, Akpabio managed to surpass a senior Senator, James Manager, and became a principal officer. He maintained this position until he defected to the APC party during Bukola Saraki’s tenure as Senate President. Eventually, he went on to become the Minister of Niger-Delta Affairs.
Akpabio’s ambitions did not stop there, as he even aspired to become the presidential candidate for the APC party. However, he eventually withdrew from the race and endorsed Tinubu during the party’s primaries.
Abdulaziz Yari
Abdulaziz Yari, the former Governor of Zamfara State, is reportedly vying for the position of Senate President. However, his chances may be slim due to certain circumstances.
In the 9th National Assembly, Yari was unable to secure a Senate position due to a Supreme Court ruling that nullified the election of all APC politicians as a result of a dispute between his faction and that of Senator Kabiru Marafa. Currently, both Yari and Marafa are senators-elect.
Considering that Yari is a first-time Senator, it may prove difficult for him to win the Senate President ticket, especially with other more experienced and ranking senators in the mix.
David Umahi
Governor Umahi, who hails from Ebonyi State, is set to make his debut appearance in the Red Chamber as a Senator. He has already expressed his desire to become the Senate President, representing the South-East geopolitical zone. His hopes are hinged on the possibility that the position would be zoned to the East.
Despite facing various obstacles, Umahi decided to leave his former political party and join the All Progressives Congress (APC). His intention was to run for the presidential ticket of the APC, but he was unsuccessful in defeating his rival, Tinubu, during the party primaries. However, he later emerged victorious in a fresh senatorial primary election after his opponent withdrew from the race.
Osita Izunaso
Senator Osita Izunaso, representing Imo West, has thrown his hat into the ring for the presidency of the Senate. He made his intentions known during the week when he presented his Certificate of Return to President Muhammadu Buhari at the Aso Rock Villa. Izunaso informed the President of his interest in vying for the top leadership position in the Senate.
He believes that, as the most senior lawmaker from the South-East and South-South zones, he has a better chance of becoming the next Senate President. Notably, Izunaso had retired Senator Arthur Nzeribe, a maverick politician, after preventing him from obtaining the PDP ticket. When asked about his prospects against major contenders like Senators Orji Uzor Kalu and Akpabio, he refused to comment and simply reiterated that he is the oldest contender and will wait for the party’s decision.