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Positive outlook for Africa’s economy as GDP growth to reach 3.8%, 4.2% in 2024, 2025

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…AfDB President lauds 15 African countries for surpassing 5% output growth

By Sodiq Adelakun

Africa’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is predicted to reach an average of 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).

This forecast, outlined in the bank’s latest Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO) report, surpasses the projected global averages of 2.9 percent and 3.2 percent.

The report also highlights that Africa is expected to maintain its position as the second-fastest-growing region, following Asia.

“The top 11 African countries projected to experience strong economic performance forecast are Niger (11.2 percent), Senegal (8.2 percent), Libya (7.9 percent) and Rwanda (7.2 percent).

“Others are Cote d’Ivoire 6.8 percent, Ethiopia 6.7 percent, Benin 6.4 percent, Djibouti 6.2 percent, Tanzania 6.1 percent, Togo 6 percent, and Uganda at six percent,” the report said.

It quoted Dr Akinwumi Adesina, AfDB’s President, as saying “in spite the challenging global and regional economic environment, 15 African countries have posted output expansions of more than five percent.”

Adesina, therefore, called for larger pools of financing and several policy interventions to boost Africa’s growth further.

It was gathered that Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook is a biannual publication released in the first and third quarters of each year.

It complements the existing African Economic Outlook (AEO), which focuses on key emerging policy issues relevant to the continent’s development.

The MEO report provides an up-to-date evidence-based assessment of the continent’s recent macroeconomic performance and short-to-medium-term outlook amid dynamic global economic developments.

Adesina said the latest report called for cautious optimism given the challenges posed by global and regional risks.

He listed the risks to include rising geo-political tensions, increased regional conflicts, and political instability all of which could disrupt trade and investment flows, and perpetuate inflationary pressures.

According to Adesina, fiscal deficits have improved, as faster-than-expected and recovery from the pandemic helped shore up revenue.

“This has led to a stabilisation of the average fiscal deficit at 4.9 per cent in 2023, like 2022, but significantly less than the 6.9 per cent average fiscal deficit of 2020.

“The stabilisation is also due to the fiscal consolidation measures, especially in countries with elevated risks of debt distress.”

The AfDB boss said that with the global economy mired in uncertainty, the fiscal positions of the African continent would continue to be vulnerable to global shocks.

“The report shows that the medium-term growth outlook for the continent’s five regions is slowly improving, a pointer to the continued resilience of Africa’s economies”

Presenting key findings of the report, the AfDB’s Chief Economist and Vice President, Prof. Kevin Urama said growth in Africa’s top-performing economies had benefitted from a range of factors.

Urama said the factors include declining commodity dependence through economic diversification, increasing stra­tegic investment in key growth sectors, rising both public and private consumption, and positive developments in key export markets.

“Africa’s economic growth is projected to regain moderate strength as long as the global economy remains resilient, disinflation continues, investment in infrastructure projects remains buoyant, and progress is sustained on debt restructuring and fiscal consolidation,” he said.

On his part, Amb Albert Muchanga, the  Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals, African Union Commission, said the future of Africa rested on economic integration.

According to Muchanga, our small economies are not competitive in the global market. Moreover, a healthy internal African trade market can ensure value-added and intra-African production of manufactured goods.

He said that the MEO forecast, and recommendations would be made available to African heads of state.

He said the report would be useful when the African Union made its proposals to the G20- an informal gathering of the world’s largest economies to which the Union was admitted in 2023.

“The improved growth figure for 2024 reflects concerted efforts by the continent’s policymakers to drive economic diversification strategies focused on increased investment in key growth sectors.

“And the implementation of domestic policies aimed at consolidating fiscal positions and reversing the increase in the cost of living and boosting private consumption,” Muchanga said.

Also speaking, Zimbabwe’s Minister of Finance and Economic Development, Prof Mthuli Ncube described the report as being “on point” and consistent with the reality in his country.

Ncube said it was useful for economic planning across Africa and urged AfDB to continue its thoughtful leadership to help policymakers continue to build resilience to withstand shocks and drive growth.

He said, “Zimbabwe expects slower growth due to climate shocks in the region. Southern African countries depend on agriculture for economic growth, so climate-proofing agriculture is key.

“We are in talks with creditors to restructure its debt, which is slowing economic growth. Internally, the country will focus on economic and governance reforms and reforms around property rights to increase agricultural production.”

According to Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, the Director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, around 41 countries in Africa are expected to achieve an economic growth rate of 3.8 percent by 2024.

Sachs also stated that in 13 of these countries, the growth rate would be more than one percentage point higher than in 2023. To achieve a growth rate of 7 percent or more per year, Sachs emphasised the importance of long-term affordable financing as part of Africa’s strategy.

He highlighted that Africa is currently paying a high-risk premium for debt financing and urged the G20 to address this issue.

Sachs suggested that loans to Africa should have a minimum term of 25 years or longer, as short-term borrowing can be detrimental to long-term development.

Additionally, he called for the African Development Bank (AfDB) to be better resourced in order to meet Africa’s financing needs. Sachs serves as the UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ Advocate for Sustainable Development Goals.

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Lagos, India to boost trade partnership

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Confederation of Indian Industry have signed an agreement to boost trade partnership.

In a memorandum of understanding in Lagos on Tuesday, both parties observed that the agreement would enhance avenues for effective collaborations.

Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Deputy President Knut Ulvmoen said that the partnership’s focus was to leverage the trade capacity of both parties.

Ulvmoen said that both parties would explore capacity in Information and Communication Technology, medical, training, agriculture, manufacturing and export, among others.

He acknowledged what he described as robust and enduring trade relations between Nigeria and India.

He noted that over the years, both nations had witnessed a steady growth in bilateral trade with significant contributions from various sectors.

“Today’s meeting serves as a platform to, not only strengthen the existing partnerships, but also to forge new alliances that will contribute to the sustainable growth and development of both nations.

“Together, we must seize this moment to identify synergies, exchange expertise, and explore innovative solutions to economic challenges.

“Let us leverage the collective wisdom of our industries to develop actionable strategies that will drive inclusive growth, foster entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness,” he said.

Indian High Commissioner Shri Balasubramanian expressed his belief in shared growth and prosperity by both countries.

He also emphasised the importance of Nigerian-Indian business collaboration.

Balasubramanian stated that the government of India was making efforts to build capacity in trade, seeking private sectors’ partnership to identify projects that could be profitable to the trade structure of both countries.

“The opportunities existing between both countries are enormous as more than 155 Indian companies in Nigeria employ many Nigerians.

“From oil to steel; to healthcare, we are willing to link Nigerians up with their counterparts in India as we explore avenues of collaboration and partnership,” he said.

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Naira remains at N1,350 as CBN targets FX inflow for liquidity boost

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The naira on Tuesday steadied at 1,350 per US dollar on the parallel market, popularly called black market.

On Monday morning, the naira opened the foreign exchange (FX) market at the same rate before closing at N1,360/$1 on the same day at the black market.

At the official market known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira on Monday fell to 1,419.11 per dollar, the lowest since March 13, 2024 at the official FX market, following slowing inflows occasioned by the withdrawal of funds by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs).

The intraday high closed at N1,451 per dollar on Monday, weaker than N1,410 closed on Friday. The intraday low also depreciated marginally to N1,060 on Monday as against N1,051/$1 closed on Friday at NAFEM, data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange indicated.

Dollars supplied by willing buyers and willing sellers declined by 52.16 percent to $147.83 million on Monday from $309.01 million recorded on Friday.

On day to day trading, the naira weakened by 5.63 percent as the dollar was quoted at N1,419.11 on Monday as against N1,339.23 quoted on Friday at NAFEM.

During the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, emphasised the critical need to attract inflows to maintain liquidity in the foreign exchange market and stabilize the exchange rate.

In his statement, Governor Cardoso highlighted the importance of addressing inflationary pressures through exchange rate management to safeguard both price stability and long-term economic growth.

“Failure to tame inflationary pressure using the exchange rate channel may jeopardise not only price stability but also long-term growth,” stated Governor Cardoso.

Addressing concerns raised at the March 2024 MPC meeting, Governor Cardoso emphasised the need to reduce negative real interest rates to attract capital flows and enhance liquidity in the FX market. He stressed the significance of attracting capital flows through foreign portfolio investments and moderating exchange rate pressures to mitigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, particularly in Nigeria’s import-dependent economy.

Commenting on the monetary situation, Mustapha Akinkunmi highlighted a decline in Nigeria’s reserve money by 24.91 percent to approximately N22.2 trillion by the end of February 2024. Despite this, broad money (M3) supply increased to N93.7 trillion, contributing to inflationary pressures. Nigeria’s external reserves also decreased to US$32.87 billion as of March 19, 2024, from US$33.68 billion in February 2024.

Although current reserves cover imports for 5.7 months of goods only and 4.5 months of goods and services, the country’s ability to repay short-term debts using reserves exceeded the threshold at 104.0 percent, he said.

According to him, the reserves-to-broad money ratio of 33.1 percent surpassed the 20.0 percent threshold, indicating Nigeria’s capacity to manage capital flows effectively.

Governor Cardoso’s emphasis on attracting inflows and managing exchange rate pressures underscores the CBN’s commitment to maintaining stability in the FX market and combating inflationary challenges in Nigeria’s economy.

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Mobile channel most vulnerable, as financial institutions lose N17.67bn to fraudsters in 2023

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Latest report by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) on Annual Fraud Landscape (January to December 2023) has revealed that commercial banks, Point of Sales (PoS) operators and others lost about N17.67 billion to fraudsters in 2023.

The report published on its website on Monday identified mobile channels as the most vulnerable avenue for fraudsters notably Web and POS businesses.

The report noted that fraud perpetrated via mobile channels increased by five percent compared to the previous year.

It also suggested some of the regulations inputted to check fraud in financial institutions need detailed examination, modification and reinforcement.

According to the statistics revealed by the report, fraud count dropped by six percent to 95,620, as actual loss from fraud grew by 23 percent in 2023 when compared to 2022 with the first quarter being the month with the highest fraud volume in 2023 and the fourth quarter being the month with the highest fraud value.

It also disclosed that the month of May recorded the highest fraud count of 11,716, followed by February with 9,492 while October saw the highest actual loss in 2023 at N3.7 billion, followed by January with N2.7 billion. It said the count of Web Fraud decreased by 38 percent and ATM fraud recorded a 64 percent reduction from 2022 to 2023.

Also, in 2023, people aged 40 and above remained the primary targets of fraudsters, which NIBSS said signified a persistent focus on the targeting strategy of fraudsters.

“This sustained trend emphasises the enduring appeal of the demographic group as potential victims, reinforcing the need for continuous efforts to educate and protect individuals in this category from fraudulent activities,” NIBSS said.

In 2023, a total of 80,658 unique customers fell for the gimmicks of fraudsters which is four per cent less than 84,130 customers recorded in the previous year.

“This decline, though apparent, does not diminish the severity of the issue, urging the financial industry to remain vigilant, enhance security measures and collaboratively address the tenacious challenges posed by fraud,” it said.

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