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Nigeria’s MPR projected to drop to 12.5% by 2026 amid inflation challenges

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By Sodiq Adelakun

In a forward-looking assessment of Nigeria’s economic policy, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has forecasted a potential easing of the country’s Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 12.5 percent by the year 2026, provided that inflation rates decline.

This adjustment is anticipated to hold steady for the remainder of the forecast period.

According to the EIU’s latest report, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to gradually relax its stringent monetary policy, initiating rate cuts at the outset of 2026.

This shift is projected despite persistent inflation rates that hover above the CBN’s target range of 6-9 percent. The report elaborates on the conditions leading to this policy shift: “Assuming a reduction in inflation from 2025, we foresee the CBN easing its tight monetary stance.

“Early rate cuts in 2026 are anticipated, even as inflation continues to exceed the CBN’s preferred target band. The policy rate is projected to decrease to 12.5 percent in 2026 and is expected to maintain that level for the rest of the period under review.”

A reduction in the MPR typically results in decreased interest payments on various forms of loans, including those for housing, vehicles, and personal use.

This easing of the financial burden could make it more affordable for Nigerian households to secure funds for significant purchases, potentially boosting consumer expenditure across the nation.

However, as borrowing costs diminish, the yields on savings and other interest-earning investments are also likely to fall.

This scenario may lead to a reduced inclination towards saving in conventional bank accounts, while simultaneously prompting investors to seek higher returns through more speculative asset classes.

For the business sector, lower interest rates could translate into reduced borrowing costs for expansion, equipment upgrades, or other capital investments.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which held on February 26 and 27, 2024, raised the MPR by 400 basis points to 22.75 from 18.75 per cent., adjusted the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to +100/-700 from +100/-300 basis points, raised the Cash Reserve Ratio from 32.5 percent to 45.0 per cent, and retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.

“The MPC attaches a large weight to economic growth, and policy will be subject to political interference,” the EIU said.

According to the report, another 100 basis points is likely to be added to the policy rate in 2024, assuming deficit monetisation continues and imported inflationary pressures remain strong. However, our core view is that the CBN will fail to deliver a positive real short-term interest rate as doing so would cause unemployment at a high political cost.

The CBN has mentioned a switch to inflation targeting, but as this would rub up against government economic policy and given the CBN’s record of unorthodox policy, such a framework would have little credibility in anchoring inflation expectations.

Nigeria’s inflation rate increased to 29.9 percent in January 2024, the highest since September 2005, and from 28.92 percent in the prior month, according to data from the CBN.

“Given probable deficit monetisation, negative real short-term interest rates and a 45 percent currency devaluation in February, we forecast that average inflation will rise to 30.3 percent in 2024, from 24.7 percent in 2023,” the report said.

The average inflation rate in 2024 is influenced by the fact that the petrol price increases in June 2023 will no longer be included in the year-on-year calculation starting from mid-2024. This prevents the inflation rate from being even higher.

If the naira stabilises, the average inflation is expected to decrease to 20.7 percent in 2025 and 11.7 percent in 2028. However, inflation will still remain significantly above the target range of 6-9 percent throughout the forecast period.

This is due to anticipated VAT rate hikes, insecurity in agricultural regions leading to higher food prices, Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit, periodic monetization of fiscal deficits, currency depreciation, and a general inclination towards inflation within economic policymaking, as stated in the EIU report.

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Lagos, India to boost trade partnership

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Confederation of Indian Industry have signed an agreement to boost trade partnership.

In a memorandum of understanding in Lagos on Tuesday, both parties observed that the agreement would enhance avenues for effective collaborations.

Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Deputy President Knut Ulvmoen said that the partnership’s focus was to leverage the trade capacity of both parties.

Ulvmoen said that both parties would explore capacity in Information and Communication Technology, medical, training, agriculture, manufacturing and export, among others.

He acknowledged what he described as robust and enduring trade relations between Nigeria and India.

He noted that over the years, both nations had witnessed a steady growth in bilateral trade with significant contributions from various sectors.

“Today’s meeting serves as a platform to, not only strengthen the existing partnerships, but also to forge new alliances that will contribute to the sustainable growth and development of both nations.

“Together, we must seize this moment to identify synergies, exchange expertise, and explore innovative solutions to economic challenges.

“Let us leverage the collective wisdom of our industries to develop actionable strategies that will drive inclusive growth, foster entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness,” he said.

Indian High Commissioner Shri Balasubramanian expressed his belief in shared growth and prosperity by both countries.

He also emphasised the importance of Nigerian-Indian business collaboration.

Balasubramanian stated that the government of India was making efforts to build capacity in trade, seeking private sectors’ partnership to identify projects that could be profitable to the trade structure of both countries.

“The opportunities existing between both countries are enormous as more than 155 Indian companies in Nigeria employ many Nigerians.

“From oil to steel; to healthcare, we are willing to link Nigerians up with their counterparts in India as we explore avenues of collaboration and partnership,” he said.

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Naira remains at N1,350 as CBN targets FX inflow for liquidity boost

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The naira on Tuesday steadied at 1,350 per US dollar on the parallel market, popularly called black market.

On Monday morning, the naira opened the foreign exchange (FX) market at the same rate before closing at N1,360/$1 on the same day at the black market.

At the official market known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira on Monday fell to 1,419.11 per dollar, the lowest since March 13, 2024 at the official FX market, following slowing inflows occasioned by the withdrawal of funds by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs).

The intraday high closed at N1,451 per dollar on Monday, weaker than N1,410 closed on Friday. The intraday low also depreciated marginally to N1,060 on Monday as against N1,051/$1 closed on Friday at NAFEM, data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange indicated.

Dollars supplied by willing buyers and willing sellers declined by 52.16 percent to $147.83 million on Monday from $309.01 million recorded on Friday.

On day to day trading, the naira weakened by 5.63 percent as the dollar was quoted at N1,419.11 on Monday as against N1,339.23 quoted on Friday at NAFEM.

During the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, emphasised the critical need to attract inflows to maintain liquidity in the foreign exchange market and stabilize the exchange rate.

In his statement, Governor Cardoso highlighted the importance of addressing inflationary pressures through exchange rate management to safeguard both price stability and long-term economic growth.

“Failure to tame inflationary pressure using the exchange rate channel may jeopardise not only price stability but also long-term growth,” stated Governor Cardoso.

Addressing concerns raised at the March 2024 MPC meeting, Governor Cardoso emphasised the need to reduce negative real interest rates to attract capital flows and enhance liquidity in the FX market. He stressed the significance of attracting capital flows through foreign portfolio investments and moderating exchange rate pressures to mitigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, particularly in Nigeria’s import-dependent economy.

Commenting on the monetary situation, Mustapha Akinkunmi highlighted a decline in Nigeria’s reserve money by 24.91 percent to approximately N22.2 trillion by the end of February 2024. Despite this, broad money (M3) supply increased to N93.7 trillion, contributing to inflationary pressures. Nigeria’s external reserves also decreased to US$32.87 billion as of March 19, 2024, from US$33.68 billion in February 2024.

Although current reserves cover imports for 5.7 months of goods only and 4.5 months of goods and services, the country’s ability to repay short-term debts using reserves exceeded the threshold at 104.0 percent, he said.

According to him, the reserves-to-broad money ratio of 33.1 percent surpassed the 20.0 percent threshold, indicating Nigeria’s capacity to manage capital flows effectively.

Governor Cardoso’s emphasis on attracting inflows and managing exchange rate pressures underscores the CBN’s commitment to maintaining stability in the FX market and combating inflationary challenges in Nigeria’s economy.

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Mobile channel most vulnerable, as financial institutions lose N17.67bn to fraudsters in 2023

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Latest report by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) on Annual Fraud Landscape (January to December 2023) has revealed that commercial banks, Point of Sales (PoS) operators and others lost about N17.67 billion to fraudsters in 2023.

The report published on its website on Monday identified mobile channels as the most vulnerable avenue for fraudsters notably Web and POS businesses.

The report noted that fraud perpetrated via mobile channels increased by five percent compared to the previous year.

It also suggested some of the regulations inputted to check fraud in financial institutions need detailed examination, modification and reinforcement.

According to the statistics revealed by the report, fraud count dropped by six percent to 95,620, as actual loss from fraud grew by 23 percent in 2023 when compared to 2022 with the first quarter being the month with the highest fraud volume in 2023 and the fourth quarter being the month with the highest fraud value.

It also disclosed that the month of May recorded the highest fraud count of 11,716, followed by February with 9,492 while October saw the highest actual loss in 2023 at N3.7 billion, followed by January with N2.7 billion. It said the count of Web Fraud decreased by 38 percent and ATM fraud recorded a 64 percent reduction from 2022 to 2023.

Also, in 2023, people aged 40 and above remained the primary targets of fraudsters, which NIBSS said signified a persistent focus on the targeting strategy of fraudsters.

“This sustained trend emphasises the enduring appeal of the demographic group as potential victims, reinforcing the need for continuous efforts to educate and protect individuals in this category from fraudulent activities,” NIBSS said.

In 2023, a total of 80,658 unique customers fell for the gimmicks of fraudsters which is four per cent less than 84,130 customers recorded in the previous year.

“This decline, though apparent, does not diminish the severity of the issue, urging the financial industry to remain vigilant, enhance security measures and collaboratively address the tenacious challenges posed by fraud,” it said.

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