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World Bank predicts 3.3% economic expansion for Nigeria in 2024

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…Warns of economic challenges in Nigeria, South Africa, others

By Sodiq Adelakun

The World Bank has predicted that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.3 percent this year, according to its recent Global Economic Prospect (GEP) report.

This projection is 0.4 percentage points higher than the 2.9 percent growth the country experienced last year.

While Nigeria’s growth forecast is slightly lower than the projected 3.8 percent expansion for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), it is significantly higher than the estimated global average of 2.3 percent.

The World Bank’s latest projections for 2024 and 2025 are also higher than their previous forecasts in June, which were 3 percent and 3.1 percent respectively. This indicates the bank’s growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic prospects, particularly since the implementation of downstream oil and foreign exchange reforms in the middle of last year.

According to the report, Nigeria’s inflation will “gradually ease as the effects of last year’s exchange rate reforms and removal of fuel subsidies fade,” with the structural reforms expected to boost fiscal revenue.

“Growth in SSA is expected to accelerate to 3.8 percent in 2024 and further to 4.1 percent in 2025 as inflationary pressures fade and financial conditions ease.

“The projections for regional growth in 2024 and 2025 have changed little from June forecasts, but these aggregates mask a mix of upgrades and downgrades at the country level.

“While growth in the largest economies in SSA is expected to lag the rest of the region, non-resource-rich economies are forecasted to maintain a growth rate above the regional average.

“Excluding the three largest SSA economies, growth in the region is expected to accelerate from 3.9 percent in 2023 to 5 percent in 2024 and a further 5.3 percent in 2025,” the report said about Africa.

It was gathered that on the first day of this year, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signed the N28.7 trillion 2024 appropriation bill into law with a 3.76 percent projected economic growth rate.

Meanwhile, the World Bank has highlighted that the largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, namely Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola, will pose challenges to the region’s growth in 2024.

This observation was made in the Global Economic Prospects for 2024 report by the Bretton Wood Institute, which also predicts the global economy to experience its weakest performance in thirty years.

The report projected that the Sub-Saharan Africa region will witness a growth rate of 3.8 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025, primarily driven by a decrease in inflation and relaxed monetary policies.

Furthermore, the report noted that the slow growth region’s largest economies Nigeria, South Africa and Angola will drag down overall growth in the region. Excluding the region’s largest economies, the Sub-Saharan region will see an uptick in growth from its projected 3.8 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025 to 5 percent in 2024 and 5.3 percent in 2025.

It stated, “Excluding the three largest SSA economies, growth in the region is expected to accelerate from 3.9 percent  in 2023 to 5 percent in 2024, and a further 5.3 percent in 2025.

“Although waning inflationary pressures should allow for a gradual easing of interest rates, thereby bolstering private consumption and investment during the forecast period, the weaknesses in the region’s three largest economies will limit the pickup in SSA’s growth.”

The bank pegged economic growth in Nigeria for 2024 at 3.3 percent and 3.7 percent in 2025. It noted that the cash scarcity and low oil production at the beginning of the year badly hurt the economy in 2023 but expects inflation in 2024 to ease as new reforms bear fruits.

For South Africa whose economy in 2023 was bedraggled by a surge in power cuts and transport bottlenecks greatly undermining the manufacturing sector, growth was forecasted at 1.3 percent and 1.5 percent in 2024 and 2025 respectively.

Nigeria and South Africa are not only the SSA’s biggest economies but Africa’s biggest economies. When combined, they make up about 43 percent of Africa’s 2.06 trillion GDP. However, these continental giants have been faced with a series of economic woes in recent times.

Nigeria’s economic growth in 2023 fell short of expectations, with GDP only increasing by 2.52 percent in the third quarter due to the disruptive effects of a currency demonetisation policy and ongoing reforms.

However, there was a positive development in annual oil production, which rebounded after a decline in previous years.

Meanwhile, South Africa’s economy has been hindered by an energy crisis, transportation bottlenecks, weak job creation, high prices, and tight monetary policies. Power outages reached unprecedented levels in 2023, severely impacting manufacturing and mining production..

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Nigeria’s inflation rate rises to 33.69% in April 2024

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In April 2024, the headline inflation rate rose to 33.69 percent, up from 33.20 percent in March 2024, marking an increase of 0.49 percent points according to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Comparing year-on-year data, the inflation rate in April 2024 was 11.47 percent points higher than in April 2023, where it stood at 22.22 percent. This indicates that the headline inflation rate has risen significantly over the past year.

Additionally, on a month-to-month basis, the inflation rate for April 2024 was 2.29 percent, which is 0.73 percent lower than the 3.02 percent recorded in March 2024. This suggests that the rate at which prices increased in April 2024 was slower than the rate in March 2024.

In April 2024, the food inflation rate reached 40.53 percent on a year-on-year basis, marking a substantial increase of 15.92 percentage points from the 24.61 percent recorded in April 2023. This significant rise in food inflation can be attributed to higher prices for several items including millet flour, garri, bread, prepacked wheat flour, and semovita, all of which belong to the Bread and Cereals class, as well as for yam tuber, water yam, and cocoyam and others.

For the year ending in April 2024, the average annual rate of food inflation stood at 32.74 percent, representing an increase of 9.52 percentage points over the 23.22 percent average annual rate recorded in April 2023.

Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, reached 26.84 percent in April 2024 on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 6.87 percent from the 19.96 percent recorded in April 2023. The most significant price rises were observed in actual and imputed rentals for housing, motorcycle journeys, bus journeys within a city (under Passenger Transport by Road Class), consultation fees for medical doctors, X-ray photography (under Medical Services Class), and accommodation services.

On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 2.20 percent in April 2024, down from 2.54 percent in March 2024, representing a decrease of 0.34 percent. The average annual core inflation rate for the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 22.84 percent, which is 5.15 percentage points higher than the 17.70 percent recorded in April 2023.

In April 2024, the urban inflation rate on a year-on-year basis reached 36.00 percent, which is 12.61 percentage points higher than the 23.39 percent recorded in April 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate for April 2024 was 2.67 percent, showing a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from the 3.17 percent seen in March 2024. The average urban inflation rate over the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 30.02 percent, marking an increase of 8.53 percentage points from the 21.50 percent reported in April 2023.

In April 2024, the rural inflation rate was 31.64 percent on a year-on-year basis, which is 10.50 percentage points higher than the 21.14 percent seen in April 2023.

On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate for April 2024 was 1.92 percent, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from the 2.87 percent recorded in March 2024. The average rural inflation rate over the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 26.38 percent, which represents an increase of 6.20 percentage points from the 20.18 percent reported in April 2023.

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Governor Sule woos investors to invest in Nasarawa, assures of inclusive economy

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…Counts gains of previous edition of investment summit

By Matthew Denis, Lafia

The Governor of Nasarawa state, Engr. Abdullahi Sule has taken steps to woo investors to invest in the state  at the ongoing Nasarawa Investment Summit.

Delivering his opening speech, Governor Sule disclosed that the state is expanding the existing industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards a better economy.

He said, “What we are witnessing today will further expand our existing pathways to leverage on the industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards enhancing inclusive and sustainable wealth creation and economic prosperity.

“It is with a sense of fulfillment and responsibility that I address you today on the occasion of the Nasarawa Investment Summit, 2024.

“I must acknowledge our most cherished investors and other development partners, who are here to be part of this auspicious occasion. I have no doubt that the coming together of these distinguished and eminent personalities will, no doubt offer us the opportunities to continue to map the future of our State economic landscape in our relentless commitment to explore business opportunities and forge investment partnerships across business endeavour.”

The Governor stressed that it is pertinent to remind you that Nasarawa State organised the first edition of the Nasarawa Investment Summit in 2022 under the theme “Diamond in the Rough: The Making of a New Investment Frontier,” aimed at ushering investment and showcasing our mineral resources to potential investors.

“I am happy to state that the outcome of the Summit informed the influx of investors into the State Who are variously harnessing our God-given endowment.

“Interestingly, the recently commissioned Avatar New Energy Materials Company Limited in Nasarawa State performed by Mr. President, the ASGARD Mining and Processing Plant, Karu, the Nasarawa Technology Village Project in Karu, as well as other numerous investments being carried out in the State were all informed by the outcome of the Summit conducted in 2022.

“It is also heartwarming to state that the Federal Government commissioned the spud-in of the Ebenyi-A Oil Well in Obi Local Government Area of the State. The discovery of Oil and Gas and its subsequent exploration and exploitation will further boost the economic prosperity of our dear country and put Nasarawa State among the comity of Oil producing States.

“I, therefore, call on the investors on Oil and Gas to take advantage of the exploration activities to begin to invest in the sector for the benefit of the society.”

“To ensure full utilisation of our potentials, we have pledged to sustain the Investment Summit in order to further showcase other solid mineral resources which are yet to be identified by interested investors. This is why the theme of this year’s Summit is deliberately coined as ‘The Industrial Renaissance,’ having built some of the key fundamentals required to drive our industrial agenda and present other minerals to our potential investors.”

He explained that the staging of the 2024 Nasarawa Investment Summit,which we are witnessing today will further expand our existing pathways to leverage on the industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards enhancing inclusive and sustainable wealth creation and economic prosperity.

“It is pertinent to point out that, as a State, we have been deliberate in stimulating our economy, building human capacities, creating wealth and generate employment to our people. It is for this reason that we have adopted our policy document christened ‘Nasarawa Economic Development Strategy (NEDS)’ as a driving force towards the initiation and implementation of various programmes and policies which we have achieved so far.

“I must acknowledge that with the assemblage of the experienced and versatile resource persons to engage the participants on the topics earmarked for discussion, I believe that the outcome of this Summit will go a long way towards actualizing our dream of industrialising Nasarawa State and position it as a leading champion.”

While applauding President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his sustained effort in driving the Nigeria economy to prosperity, he said, “I assure Mr. President of our unalloyed loyalty and continued support in order to take our country to greater heights.”

“Let me as always, call on our development partners to continue to invest in Nasarawa State with the view to open the frontiers of economic prosperity for the benefit of all. Indeed, Nasarawa means business.”

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CBN launches strategy to double remittances, grants AIP to 14 new IMTOs

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has activated plans to double foreign-currency remittance flows through formal channels by granting 14 new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) Approval-in-Principle (AIP).

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