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Uncertain future for Nigerian manufacturers as FX volatility, production costs take toll

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Nigerian manufacturers are facing an uncertain future due to persistent foreign exchange volatility and higher production costs, which have been crippling business activities in recent years.

The situation has left many manufacturers unsure whether to cut down on production or stay in business as they continue to battle rising energy costs, FX volatility, and accelerating inflation that has made it increasingly hard for them to predict their production costs, experts say.

According to Sola Obadimu, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture, the 2024 manufacturing outlook remains dim as long as the government fails to stabilise the naira and deal with security issues.

The situation has left many manufacturers in a precarious position, with some considering shutting down their operations due to the high cost of production.

The persistent foreign exchange volatility has made it difficult for manufacturers to import raw materials, which has led to a shortage of inputs and a decline in production. This has resulted in a reduction in the number of goods available in the market, leading to higher prices for consumers.

The rising energy costs have also been a major challenge for manufacturers, with many struggling to pay their electricity bills.

This has led to a decline in production and a loss of jobs, which has further worsened the economic situation in the country. The government has been urged to take urgent action to address the challenges facing manufacturers in the country.

This includes stabilising the naira, providing incentives for local production, and addressing security issues that have been affecting businesses in the country.

Failure to take action could lead to a further decline in the manufacturing sector, which could have serious implications for the Nigerian economy.

“Naira needs to be stable for manufacturers to plan and budget their inputs and outputs,” Obadimu said, adding that producers are being forced to produce at reduced capacity or shut down operations amid declining consumer purchasing power.

“Consumer demand level is elastic, so you cannot just increase prices anytime you want to because their wages are also declining,” he said in a response to questions.

The naira has lost 49.11 percent of its value against the dollar in 2023 at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market, data compiled by BusinessDay from the FMDQ indicated.

The worsening FX volatility is inflicting more pain on businesses as the cost of production doubled amid low demand from cash-strapped consumers dealing with inflationary pressures.

“The outlook for the manufacturing sector in 2024 may not be a positive one, at least in the first half of the year,” Segun Ajayi-Kadir, director-general of the Manufacturing Association of Nigeria (MAN), said in a statement from the association.

“The period will be challenging, with a subtle possibility of recovery from the third quarter,” he said, adding that the envisaged recovery is highly dependent on the deployment of policy stimulus supported with a synthesis of domestic growth-driven, export-focused, and offensive trade strategies.

“This will promote resilience and steady growth and ensure that the sector gains meaningful traction in the later part of the year,” he said.

Apart from F volatility and higher costs, the country’s huge infrastructure gaps are also increasing the burden of doing business in Africa’s most populous country.

The availability of adequate infrastructure is a major determinant of the success of every country’s industrial sector; however, Nigeria does not have adequate infrastructure to grow businesses, especially developed transport systems such as roads and railways connected to the nation’s seaports.

Energy is a key element of the production process. Nigeria’s inability to supply and distribute sufficient electricity has left businesses at the mercy of generators powered by diesel and petrol, whose prices have surged in recent months.

Manufacturers spend 40 percent of their total production cost on generating energy for their businesses, according to MAN.

In a June 2023 statement, the association put the annual economic loss caused by inadequate power supply at N10 trillion, accounting for almost two percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.

While the government has pledged commitments to power projects including the Siemens Energy initiative and enhance the reliability of transmission lines towards addressing power shortages in the country, experts have stressed the urgent need to address the structure of the power sector.

“The government needs to consider bringing private sector investment into the transmission segment of the power sector,” Chinyere Almona, director-general of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said in a statement following President Bola Tinubu’s New Year Address.

“This would ensure adequate technical and financial capacity for a well-functioning sector to power economic growth,” she said.

The rising cost of energy and FX pushed the country’s inflation rate to an 18-year high of 28.2 percent in November, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The challenging macroeconomic issues impacted the manufacturing sector as its growth rate slowed to 0.48 percent in the third quarter of 2023, lower than 2.20 percent in the preceding quarter and 1.61 percent in Q1.

“The two biggest changes to our manufacturing sector are the huge exposure to the external sector, specifically imported raw materials, and the rising burden of high energy cost,” said Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer at the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise.

“The sector outlook will depend to a large extent on the stability of the foreign exchange market and the related forex liquidity,” he said, adding that with the extent to which the CBN had demonstrated a clear commitment to the stabilisation of the foreign exchange market, the outlook may be more on the upside in 2024.

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Banks’ ATMs dispensing cash, withdrawal limit for non-customers slashed

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Most banks’ Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) are dispensing cash for customers to withdraw, contrary to reports that most banks no longer load cash in their machines.

A correspondent, who monitored banks in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), on Sunday, reports that some customers were seen withdrawing cash.

The study also revealed that most customers using ATM of their banks were permitted to withdraw higher amounts than customers not using their banks’ ATM.

At Zenith Bank in Garki, customers with Guaranty Trust Bank (GTB) ATM cards or other banks’ were only allowed to withdraw N10,000 and below, while those with the Zenith Bank’s ATM cards were allowed N20,000 withdrawal and above.

Also, at First Bank, Nyanya-Jikwoyi road, customers with other bank’s ATM card were allowed to withdraw N10,000 and below, while customers with the bank’s ATM card could withdraw up to N20,000.

Mr Tam Ubose, a customer at Area 3 branch of GTB, said the withdrawal limit slash was not a new development as banks had been doing it.

“This is not new; it has been going on for some months now, especially during the cashless policy season.

“Banks give preferential treatment to their customers.

“The best thing anyone looking for much  cash should do is to use his or her bank’s Atm card or patronise Point of Sale (PoS) operators,” he said.

Mrs Ijeoma Ukwu, another customer at First Bank, Nyanya-Jikwoyi, said that although it had been rumoured that most banks’ ATMs do not dispense cash, she was yet to experience it.

Ukwu alleged that most bank customers now preferred to patronise PoS operators instead of going to use banks’ ATM due to the convenience.

Mr Ade Bello, a PoS operator, said he had many bank accounts and ATM cards which he used to withdraw money.

“Some banks will give you N20,000 while some can only give you N10,000.

“I use almost all my ATM cards when I want to withdraw money for my business and I usually go in the morning when monies are being loaded in the machines.

“It was during that cashless policy thing that we did not see money in ATMs. At that period, I was buying money to save my business, but now, the situation is much better,” he said.

On alleged insinuations that most bankers own PoS, hence the limited loading of cash in banks’ ATMs, Bello said the rumour had filtered into his ears.

Bello, who said the rumours had yet to be confirmed, said he was in the business to cater for the needs of his family.

However, Mrs Susan Obong, a customer at United Bank for Africa (UBA) in Kubwa, alleged that most banks ATMs in the area do not dispense cash, especially during the weekend.

Obong appealed to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to investigate the allegation with a view to finding punitive measures for the banks involved.

Reacting to the developments, a banker who pleaded anonymity, said that banks were constantly loading their machines with cash.

“There is no way a bank will see that there is no cash in their ATM machine and they will not quickly load it.

“Loading cash in ATM reduces the number of customers who enter the banking hall and the stress faced by bankers.

“In our bank, we have a stand-by official who will always go and load the ATM with cash.

“We are out to satisfy our customers,” the official said.

Another bank official who also pleaded anonymity, dismissed the allegation that most bankers own PoS business.

“Even though I do not believe this rumor, I do not think it is wrong for someone to own a business as long as you are not going about it the wrong way,” the official said.

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Strong credit score will enhance higher funding for MSMEs – Expert

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A financial expert, Mr Gbemi Adelekan, has advised Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to ensure a solid repayment history to  enhance their credit scores and improve their access to funding.

Adelekan, also the Chief Executive Officer of KwikPay Credit, gave the advice on Saturday in Lagos in an interview with journalists.

KwikPay Credit is a financial services provider and licensed lender by Trafalgar Associates, approved by the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC).

Adelekan said that, in Nigeria, accessing credit facilities was crucial for individuals and enterprises to meet various financial needs and increase circulation of disposable income and engender business sustainability.

He emphasised that a strong repayment history would enhance access to higher levels of funding that would enable expansion of small businesses into larger enterprises and increase their performances.

“A short-term loan with a solid repayment history can significantly enhance your credit score in a short period.

“This improvement in your creditworthiness opens up greater opportunities to secure larger loan amounts in future applications,” he said.

Adelekan said that short and quick loans had helped many small businesses to navigate  murky economic terrains, particularly those operating under the informal bracket.

“An ice block maker, that hair dresser on the street, the welder whose machine needs to work, and other artisans may be unable to go to big banks or development finance institutions to ask for small loans.

“They may not have the requisite paperwork. Accessing small and quick loans online has saved many of these businesses from collapse.

“Fortunately, the money lending sector is fully regulated by the FCCPC, and the rights of borrowers are very much protected,” he said.

He said that non-repayment of loans had adverse effects.

“Owing money for a long time and watching the interest accrue on such a facility can have a psychological effect,” he said.

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GTCO Plc releases 2024 Q1 unaudited results

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…Reports Profit Before Tax of N509.3billion

Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO or the Group) has released its Unaudited Consolidated and Separate Financial Statements for the period ended March 31, 2024, to the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) and London Stock Exchange (LSE).

The Group reported profit before tax of N509.3billion, representing an increase of 587.5 percent over N74.1billion recorded in the corresponding period ended March 2023. The Group’s loan book (net) increased by 21.9 percent from N2.48trillion recorded as at December 2023 to N3.02trillion in March 2024, while deposit liabilities increased by 26.0 percent from N7.55trillion in December 2023 to N9.51trillion in March 2024

The Group’s balance sheet remained well structured, diversified, and resilient with total assets and shareholders’ funds closing at N13.0 trillion and N2.0trillion, respectively. Full Impact Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) remained very strong, closing at 24.9 percent, while asset quality was sustained as IFRS 9 stage 3 loans improved to 3.1 percent in March 2024 from 4.2 percent December 2023 and cost of risk (COR) closed at 0.4 percent from 4.5 percent in December 2023.

Commenting on the results, the Group Chief Executive Officer of Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc, Mr. Segun Agbaje, said, “Our first quarter results reflect the unfolding value of what we have created in all our business verticals through the Holding Company Structure – from Banking and Payments to Funds Management and Pension, we are positioned to compete effectively on all fronts and fulfil all our customers’ needs under a unified, thriving financial ecosystem. Despite the challenging operating environment, we delivered a solid performance, recording significant growth across all financial and non-financial metrics, and we remain on track to meeting our full year guidance.

Mr. Agbaje further said, “Looking ahead, we will continue to focus on strengthening our relationships with our loyal customers, supporting not just individuals and businesses but also our communities through our well-attested free business platforms as well as innovative products and services.

“We are confident in our credentials to lead the future of financial services in Africa and will not relent in our commitment to excellence whilst delivering long-term value to all stakeholders.”

Overall, the Group continues to post one of the best metrics in the Nigerian financial services industry in terms of key financial ratios i.e., pre-tax return on equity (ROAE) of 117.0 percent, pre-tax return on assets (ROAA) of 18.0 percent, full impact capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 24.9 percent and cost-to-income ratio (CIR) of 16.3 percent.

GTCO is a leading financial services group with banking operations in Nigeria, West Africa, East Africa, and the United Kingdom alongside non-banking verticals in HabariPay, Guaranty Trust Fund Managers, and Guaranty Trust Pension Managers. Its leadership in the banking industry and efforts at empowering people and communities has earned it many prestigious awards over the years. Recently, Guaranty Trust Bank was recognised as Nigeria’s Best Bank and Best Bank in CSR at the 2023 Euromoney Awards for Excellence, Best Banking Group in Nigeria by World Finance, and Best Bank in Nigeria by Global Finance. GTCO’s Guaranty Trust Bank is featured in the Top 1000 Banks in the World and Top 100 Banks in Africa rankings by The Banker.

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