Nigeria’s GDP expands by 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025 as oil output rises – NBS

…Oil GDP slows to 6 per cent in Q2 2025

….Non-oil sector contributes 95.9 per cent 

… Nigeria puts 2023–2024 crisis behind as GDP growth accelerates, exchange rate holds at ₦1,500 – Expart

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.23 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

This marks a stronger performance than the 3.48 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

The report shows that aggregate GDP at basic prices stood at N100.73 trillion in nominal terms, compared with N84.48 trillion in Q2 2024, representing a nominal growth of 19.23 per cent year-on-year.

The report read, “Following the rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product using 2019 as the base year, previous quarterly GDP estimates were benchmarked to the rebased annual estimates to align the old series with the new rebased estimates. 

“This procedure provided a new quarterly GDP series, which is compared to the 2025 second quarter estimates. 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.23 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2025. 

This growth rate is higher than the 3.48 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2024.” 

The oil sector drove much of the growth momentum. Average daily crude oil production rose to 1.68 million barrels per day (mbpd), higher than the 1.41 mbpd recorded in Q2 2024 and 1.62 mbpd in Q1 2025.

This production boost translated into real GDP growth of 20.46 per cent for the sector, compared with 10.08 per cent  in the same quarter of 2024 and just 1.87 per cent in Q1 2025. 

The oil sector contributed 4.05 per cent to total GDP in Q2 2025, up from 3.51 per cent in Q2 2024.

Mining and quarrying, which includes crude petroleum and natural gas, coal mining, metal ores, and quarrying of other minerals, also expanded strongly.

The subsector grew by 20.86 per cent in real terms. Quarrying and other minerals rose by 50.41 per cent, while coal mining increased by 32.59 per cent. 

The sector contributed 4.23 per cent to GDP in real terms, up from 3.64 per cent a year earlier.

Despite the strong oil rebound, the non-oil sector continued to dominate economic output, accounting for 95.95 per cent of GDP in Q2 2025. 

The sector grew by 3.64% in real terms, higher than the 3.26% recorded in Q2 2024 and 3.19% in Q1 2025.

Growth in the non-oil economy was driven by agriculture, telecommunications, real estate, financial institutions, trade, construction, and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

Agriculture grew by 2.82 per cent in Q2 2025 in real terms, compared with 2.60 per cent in Q2 2024 and just 0.07 per cent in the previous quarter. 

Crop production remained the key driver, accounting for more than half of agricultural output.

The sector contributed 26.17 per cent to real GDP in Q2 2025, slightly lower than the 26.53 per cent recorded in Q2 2024, but higher than the 23.33 per cent reported in Q1 2025.

The industry sector posted a real growth rate of 7.45 per cent, more than double the 3.72 per cent growth recorded in Q2 2024.

Manufacturing, however, slowed to 1.60 per cent growth in Q2 2025, compared with 2.07 per cent in the previous quarter. Its contribution to GDP dipped to 7.81 per cent from 8.01 per cent in Q2 2024.

Construction expanded by 5.27 per cent in real terms, up from 4.20 per cent in the previous year, but posted a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 21 per cent. 

The sector contributed 3.60 per cent to GDP in Q2 2025, compared with 3.57 per cent in Q2 2024.

The services sector grew by 3.94 per cent in real terms in Q2 2025, up from 3.83 per cent in the same quarter of 2024. 

Trade contributed 18.28 per cent to GDP but slowed slightly from 18.81 per cent in Q2 2024. Real growth in trade was 1.29 per cent, down from 1.82 per cent in the corresponding period.

Information and communication maintained strong growth, expanding by 6.61 per cent in Q2 2025 compared with 4.38 per cent in Q2 2024. 

The sector contributed 11.18 per cent to GDP, higher than the 10.93 per cent recorded a year earlier.

Finance and insurance grew by 16.13 per cent in real terms, compared with 0.30 per cent in Q2 2024, and contributed 3.23 per ceny to GDP, up from 2.89 per cent a year ago.

Transportation and storage saw one of the fastest expansions, growing by 22.09 per cent in real terms, with a GDP share of 0.65 per cent, compared with 0.56 per cent in Q2 2024.

Speaking to Nigerian NewsDirect on development, the CEO of Economic Associates(EA), Dr.Ayo Teriba said that Nigeria’s economy has shown signs of resilience with key indicators pointing to sustained recovery and stability, government sources have said.

According to him, the exchange rate has remained relatively stable at around ₦1,500, even when shocks occur, with the market demonstrating rapid corrections. Inflation has been on an upward trend for the past eight months, but growth momentum has not slowed.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is accelerating, while financial inclusion has also been expanding. Analysts say these trends indicate that the economic shocks of 2023 and 2024 have largely been overcome.

“The growth we are seeing now is broad-based. Regardless of whether it is oil or gas, GDP growth is accelerating, and inclusion is accelerating. This means Nigeria has put the crisis of 2023 and 2024 behind,” the statement read.

Ayo note that while inflationary pressures remain a challenge, the steady exchange rate and renewed growth momentum suggest Nigeria is on a firmer recovery path.