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Afreximbank unveils African Trade Report 2023

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The African Export-Import Bank’s (Afreximbank), 2023 edition of the African Trade Report (ATR2023) was launched at the Bank’s Annual Meeting – AAM2023 and 30th Anniversary celebrations in Accra, Ghana.

Speaking during the launch, the President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Afreximbank, Professor Benedict Oramah, said that Africa showed growth resilience amid a synchronised global deceleration under the confluence of overlapping crises, including lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, record-high inflation, heightening geopolitical tensions and intensification of trade wars.

Amid these global headwinds Africa remained on a growth trajectory, with its GDP growth increasing by 3.9 per cent and its merchandise trade expanding by 20.9 per cent in 2022, above the world’s average of 12 per cent, according to the report.

He performed the launch along with the African Union Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Industry and Mining, HE Ambassador Albert Muchanga.

Afreximbank’s Chief Economist, Dr. Hippolyte Fofack, noted that the stronger trade performance of the region was largely supported by favourable commodity terms of trade, with rising commodity prices compensating for the lackluster growth in the volume of global trade which increased by 2.7 per cent.

Dr Fofack added that “the recurrence of adverse commodity terms of trade shocks in a region where over 80 per cent of countries continues to be classified as highly commodity dependent remains the major risk facing the continent which is yet to integrate global value chains (RVCs) through backward activities rather than as providers of raw materials.

“In a world where manufacturing has been the leading driver of global growth and trade, the stickiness of the colonial development model of resource extraction has confined the region to the periphery of global trade, with its combined contribution accounting for less than 3 per cent of global trade,” he added.

This context informed the choice of the overarching theme of the 2023 edition of the trade report titled: “Export Manufacturing and Regional Value Chains in Africa under a New World Order.” In addition to articulating the rationale for accelerating the process of structural transformation of African economies, the report establishes that the African and global environment dominated by both implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and realignment of global supply chains for greater resilience under a new world order is ripe for the development of regional value chains (RVCs) for export manufacturing-led growth in Africa.

Since the industrial revolution, export manufacturing-led growth has provided the path to global income convergence. In addition to mitigating exposure to global volatility, it has catalysed technology transfers and the development of RVCs for effective integration into GVCs.

“While extra-African trade is dominated by primary commodities, manufactured goods dominate intra-African trade and could catalyze industrialisation and development of RVCs in the AfCFTA era,” Dr Fofack added.

Accordingly, the report argues that African countries should proactively support implementation of the AfCFTA to bolster the growth of manufacturing output and accelerate the process of structural transformation in a new world order of realignment of global supply chains and a shift towards friend-shoring.

This position is supported by former African Development Bank President,  Mr. Donald Kaberuka, on the basis of an article in the Foreign Affairs publication on 18th May 2023, titled ‘The global economy’s future depends on Africa.’ Today, the continent has the youngest population in the world, with 70 per cent under 30 years.

Such a high number of young people is an opportunity for structural transformation and export diversification in the continent – only though according to the report, if this generation is fully empowered to realise their full potential and given appropriate opportunities for work and innovation. Hence, the report encourages African governments to invest in the development of human capital and infrastructures, including research and digital infrastructures.

“Afreximbank, through its support and sustained commitment towards the diversification of African exports has become one of the most important systemically development finance institutions in the continent,” HE Ambassador Albert Muchanga praised the Bank.

He recommended that everyone read the African Trade Report 2023 because it is timely and articulates the policies and options to set Africa on an irreversible path of structural transformation that sustainably raises its share of global growth and trade.

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Lagos, India to boost trade partnership

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Confederation of Indian Industry have signed an agreement to boost trade partnership.

In a memorandum of understanding in Lagos on Tuesday, both parties observed that the agreement would enhance avenues for effective collaborations.

Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Deputy President Knut Ulvmoen said that the partnership’s focus was to leverage the trade capacity of both parties.

Ulvmoen said that both parties would explore capacity in Information and Communication Technology, medical, training, agriculture, manufacturing and export, among others.

He acknowledged what he described as robust and enduring trade relations between Nigeria and India.

He noted that over the years, both nations had witnessed a steady growth in bilateral trade with significant contributions from various sectors.

“Today’s meeting serves as a platform to, not only strengthen the existing partnerships, but also to forge new alliances that will contribute to the sustainable growth and development of both nations.

“Together, we must seize this moment to identify synergies, exchange expertise, and explore innovative solutions to economic challenges.

“Let us leverage the collective wisdom of our industries to develop actionable strategies that will drive inclusive growth, foster entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness,” he said.

Indian High Commissioner Shri Balasubramanian expressed his belief in shared growth and prosperity by both countries.

He also emphasised the importance of Nigerian-Indian business collaboration.

Balasubramanian stated that the government of India was making efforts to build capacity in trade, seeking private sectors’ partnership to identify projects that could be profitable to the trade structure of both countries.

“The opportunities existing between both countries are enormous as more than 155 Indian companies in Nigeria employ many Nigerians.

“From oil to steel; to healthcare, we are willing to link Nigerians up with their counterparts in India as we explore avenues of collaboration and partnership,” he said.

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Naira remains at N1,350 as CBN targets FX inflow for liquidity boost

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The naira on Tuesday steadied at 1,350 per US dollar on the parallel market, popularly called black market.

On Monday morning, the naira opened the foreign exchange (FX) market at the same rate before closing at N1,360/$1 on the same day at the black market.

At the official market known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira on Monday fell to 1,419.11 per dollar, the lowest since March 13, 2024 at the official FX market, following slowing inflows occasioned by the withdrawal of funds by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs).

The intraday high closed at N1,451 per dollar on Monday, weaker than N1,410 closed on Friday. The intraday low also depreciated marginally to N1,060 on Monday as against N1,051/$1 closed on Friday at NAFEM, data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange indicated.

Dollars supplied by willing buyers and willing sellers declined by 52.16 percent to $147.83 million on Monday from $309.01 million recorded on Friday.

On day to day trading, the naira weakened by 5.63 percent as the dollar was quoted at N1,419.11 on Monday as against N1,339.23 quoted on Friday at NAFEM.

During the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, emphasised the critical need to attract inflows to maintain liquidity in the foreign exchange market and stabilize the exchange rate.

In his statement, Governor Cardoso highlighted the importance of addressing inflationary pressures through exchange rate management to safeguard both price stability and long-term economic growth.

“Failure to tame inflationary pressure using the exchange rate channel may jeopardise not only price stability but also long-term growth,” stated Governor Cardoso.

Addressing concerns raised at the March 2024 MPC meeting, Governor Cardoso emphasised the need to reduce negative real interest rates to attract capital flows and enhance liquidity in the FX market. He stressed the significance of attracting capital flows through foreign portfolio investments and moderating exchange rate pressures to mitigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, particularly in Nigeria’s import-dependent economy.

Commenting on the monetary situation, Mustapha Akinkunmi highlighted a decline in Nigeria’s reserve money by 24.91 percent to approximately N22.2 trillion by the end of February 2024. Despite this, broad money (M3) supply increased to N93.7 trillion, contributing to inflationary pressures. Nigeria’s external reserves also decreased to US$32.87 billion as of March 19, 2024, from US$33.68 billion in February 2024.

Although current reserves cover imports for 5.7 months of goods only and 4.5 months of goods and services, the country’s ability to repay short-term debts using reserves exceeded the threshold at 104.0 percent, he said.

According to him, the reserves-to-broad money ratio of 33.1 percent surpassed the 20.0 percent threshold, indicating Nigeria’s capacity to manage capital flows effectively.

Governor Cardoso’s emphasis on attracting inflows and managing exchange rate pressures underscores the CBN’s commitment to maintaining stability in the FX market and combating inflationary challenges in Nigeria’s economy.

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Mobile channel most vulnerable, as financial institutions lose N17.67bn to fraudsters in 2023

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Latest report by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) on Annual Fraud Landscape (January to December 2023) has revealed that commercial banks, Point of Sales (PoS) operators and others lost about N17.67 billion to fraudsters in 2023.

The report published on its website on Monday identified mobile channels as the most vulnerable avenue for fraudsters notably Web and POS businesses.

The report noted that fraud perpetrated via mobile channels increased by five percent compared to the previous year.

It also suggested some of the regulations inputted to check fraud in financial institutions need detailed examination, modification and reinforcement.

According to the statistics revealed by the report, fraud count dropped by six percent to 95,620, as actual loss from fraud grew by 23 percent in 2023 when compared to 2022 with the first quarter being the month with the highest fraud volume in 2023 and the fourth quarter being the month with the highest fraud value.

It also disclosed that the month of May recorded the highest fraud count of 11,716, followed by February with 9,492 while October saw the highest actual loss in 2023 at N3.7 billion, followed by January with N2.7 billion. It said the count of Web Fraud decreased by 38 percent and ATM fraud recorded a 64 percent reduction from 2022 to 2023.

Also, in 2023, people aged 40 and above remained the primary targets of fraudsters, which NIBSS said signified a persistent focus on the targeting strategy of fraudsters.

“This sustained trend emphasises the enduring appeal of the demographic group as potential victims, reinforcing the need for continuous efforts to educate and protect individuals in this category from fraudulent activities,” NIBSS said.

In 2023, a total of 80,658 unique customers fell for the gimmicks of fraudsters which is four per cent less than 84,130 customers recorded in the previous year.

“This decline, though apparent, does not diminish the severity of the issue, urging the financial industry to remain vigilant, enhance security measures and collaboratively address the tenacious challenges posed by fraud,” it said.

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