What Nigerians should expect in Q1 2026

1. Higher compliance pressure under the new tax reforms

The 2025 Tax Reform Act will see deeper implementation in Q1 2026. Nigerians should expect stricter enforcement from tax agencies, increased monitoring of SMEs and freelancers, and penalties for non-compliance.

1. Increased cost of goods and services

Adjustments in excise duties and VAT realignments will raise prices of telecom services, food items, luxury goods, logistics services and imported electronics as companies adjust their cost structures.

1. Fuel price movements
   With deregulation consolidated in 2025 and private refineries coming online, fuel prices will reflect FX rates, crude prices and distribution costs. Nigerians may still see periodic fluctuations.
2. Stronger cashless economy enforcement
   The CBN’s renewed cashless policy means more charges on cash withdrawals, stricter KYC procedures and tighter monitoring of fintechs and PoS operators.
3. Stricter import controls
   The 2025 Customs Modernisation Framework introduces automated valuation, tighter cargo screening and higher penalties for violations. Importers should expect more transparent but stricter processes.
4. Growth in Local Manufacturing

The 2025 Industrial Growth Act will incentivize production of pharmaceuticals, agro-products, renewable energy components and essential goods, boosting local supply gradually in early 2026.

1. FX market restructuring
   With market-driven FX reforms, Q1 2026 will see continued fluctuations depending on oil production, remittances and global economic trends.
2. Increased electricity tariffs
   New band realignments in the power sector mean higher electricity costs for high-consumption users and more metering enforcement.
3. More construction activity
   The 2025 Housing and Infrastructure Bill is expected to drive new building projects, increasing demand for cement and materials.
4. Rise in digital jobs
   The Nigeria Digital Economy Act will expand opportunities in tech, content, data and AI sectors, though taxation on digital earnings will also increase.