…as World Bank forecasts further price increases
Nigeria could face renewed pressure on food affordability as rising global energy costs, higher fertiliser prices and disruptions to agricultural supply chains threaten to increase food production and transportation expenses, according to the World Bank’s latest commodity market projections.
The warning comes as the World Bank forecasts a further 7 per cent increase in global food commodity prices in 2027, following an estimated 10 per cent rise in 2026, raising concerns about the potential impact on countries already grappling with high living costs.
In its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, released on Wednesday, October 28, the World Bank projected that global energy prices would increase by 32 per cent in 2026, reversing three consecutive years of declines.
The institution attributed the increase largely to disruptions in global oil supplies arising from the conflict in the Middle East, alongside continued geopolitical tensions affecting international commodity markets.
According to the report, Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $91 per barrel in 2026, compared with $69 in 2025, before moderating to $79 per barrel in 2027.
The World Bank warned that higher energy prices could increase the cost of agricultural production, particularly through fuel-dependent farming operations, transportation and fertiliser manufacturing.
For Nigeria, where petroleum products play an important role in transporting agricultural produce from farming communities to urban markets, sustained increases in energy costs could create additional pressure on food distribution expenses.
Farmers who depend on fuel-powered machinery, irrigation equipment and transportation services could also face higher operating costs, potentially affecting production decisions and the prices at which agricultural commodities reach consumers.
The report further projected that global fertiliser prices would rise by 14 per cent in 2026, following an earlier surge in urea prices.
Higher fertiliser costs could present additional challenges for Nigerian farmers, particularly smallholder producers whose ability to purchase agricultural inputs is already constrained by limited access to affordable financing.
Although the World Bank’s projections cover global commodity markets rather than Nigeria’s domestic retail prices, the findings highlight potential external pressures on the country’s agricultural sector.
The report also identified disruptions to grain shipments through the Black Sea and the effects of El Niño weather conditions as additional threats to global food supplies.
It warned that the combination of higher energy prices, adverse weather and international trade disruptions could result in more severe food price increases than currently projected.
Under an adverse scenario involving intensified geopolitical conflicts and major agricultural supply disruptions, global food commodity prices could rise 12 per cent above the institution’s baseline forecast.
Brent crude prices could also average $105 per barrel in 2027 under such circumstances, further increasing the risk of inflationary pressures across energy-dependent industries.
World Bank Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, Ayhan Kose, warned that simultaneous disruptions across commodity markets could undermine economic stability and worsen food insecurity, particularly in vulnerable economies.
The institution emphasised the importance of protecting low-income households and supporting countries facing growing economic pressures.
The warning comes against the backdrop of Nigeria’s efforts to contain inflation and improve food affordability.
According to figures reported from the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s headline inflation declined to 14.63 per cent in September 2026 from 15.39 per cent in August, while food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent year-on-year.
Despite the moderation in inflation, rising international energy and agricultural input costs could complicate efforts to achieve sustained improvements in food affordability.
Nigeria’s exposure to these pressures will depend on several factors, including domestic fuel prices, exchange-rate movements, agricultural productivity, transportation infrastructure and the availability of fertiliser.
The World Bank nevertheless expects some easing in global energy prices in 2027, although it cautioned that renewed supply disruptions could reverse the anticipated decline.
For Nigeria, the projections underscore the importance of improving energy efficiency in agriculture, strengthening food transportation and storage infrastructure, and reducing farmers’ exposure to volatile input costs.
Such measures could help limit the transmission of international commodity price shocks to domestic food markets, particularly as the country seeks to improve agricultural production and household purchasing power.
