Iran’s shadow over Nigeria: fuel prices spike, protests loom —Time for bold economic shielding and calm leadership

Picture this: a danfo driver in Oshodi, sweat on his brow, counting the last notes in his pocket before he pulls up to the pump. Yesterday it was ₦875. Today, the attendant shrugs and says, “Oga, na ₦980 now.” The man’s face falls. Another ₦100 gone, just like that. Multiply that pain across Lagos, Abuja, Kano, and Port Harcourt. This is not some abstract global crisis. This is the reality hitting millions of Nigerians this week, and it is coming straight from the fires burning in Tehran.

We woke up to the news that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, killed in US-Israeli strikes that have shaken the Middle East to its core. Crude oil prices shot past $80 a barrel overnight. The Strait of Hormuz, that narrow throat through which much of the world’s oil flows, suddenly feels very fragile. And here at home, Dangote Refinery did what any business would do: it raised its price by ₦100 to ₦874-875 per litre. Within hours, MRS, NNPC Retail, and others followed suit. Pump prices are already kissing ₦980, with some marketers openly warning that ₦1,000 is around the corner.

Let’s be honest, this hurts. Badly. Nigerians are still staggering from the last wave of subsidy removal and naira float. Transport fares are climbing again. Food prices, already punishing, will follow. The woman selling tomatoes in Wuse Market, the Okada rider in Enugu, the civil servant in Maiduguri, they did not start this war, yet they are paying for it with the little they have left.

But the pain is not only in our pockets. It is on our streets too.

Yesterday, members of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) took to the roads in Kano, Kaduna, Bauchi, Gombe, Lagos, and several other cities. They marched in solidarity with Iran, waving portraits of the late Supreme Leader and calling out the US and Israel. In some places, security forces had to move in to keep order. The US Embassy in Abuja, sensing the tension, cancelled all visa appointments for today and issued fresh security alerts to its citizens. We have seen this movie before. When foreign crises spill onto Nigerian soil, things can turn ugly fast.

President Tinubu and his team have tried to project calm. They have spoken of strategic autonomy, of not being dragged into other people’s wars. That is the right tone. But tone alone will not fill tanks or cool tempers. Nigerians are looking for more than statements. They want to see real shielding.

First, the economic shield. We cannot keep being this vulnerable every time something explodes halfway across the world. Dangote Refinery has been a game-changer, no question. For the first time in decades, we are refining our own crude in serious quantities. But even that is not enough when global prices dictate our destiny. The government must move faster on full crude supply to local refineries. No more excuses about pipelines or sabotage.

We need emergency measures, targeted palliatives for commercial drivers and small businesses, a temporary review of excise duties on fuel, and anything that softens the blow for the most vulnerable. The CBN and Finance Ministry have built up some reserves; now is the time to use them wisely, not just talk about them.

Second, the security shield. The Shiite protests must be handled with intelligence and restraint. These are Nigerian citizens expressing grief and anger. Heavy-handedness will only turn mourning into confrontation. At the same time, security agencies must not drop the ball. We have enough internal challenges, banditry, kidnapping, separatist agitations, without importing fresh tensions.

The police, DSS, and military should coordinate tightly, protect lives and property, and keep the peace without inflaming passions. Calm leadership here is not weakness; it is strength.

Third, the long-term shield. This crisis is a loud wake-up call. Nigeria cannot afford to remain a price-taker in the global oil market forever. We must accelerate diversification of solar in the North, gas infrastructure everywhere, and proper investment in local refining capacity beyond Dangote alone. The Petroleum Industry Act was meant to fix some of these structural issues. Let us implement it with urgency, not bury it in bureaucracy.

Fellow Nigerians, we have been here before. Every time the Middle East sneezes, we catch pneumonia. Enough. The government must show that it feels the pain of the ordinary citizen and is ready to act decisively. President Tinubu, this is one of those moments that will define your leadership. Protect the economy. Protect the streets. Protect the people.

Because at the end of the day, it is not about Tehran or Washington or Jerusalem. It is about that danfo driver in Oshodi who just wants to feed his family without the price of petrol breaking his back. It is about the market woman who cannot afford another hike in transport costs. It is about whether Nigeria will keep bending to every foreign wind or finally stand tall and shield its own.

The shadow from Iran has reached our shores. Now is the time to step out of it with courage, wisdom, and compassion. The people are watching. History is watching. Let us get this right.