Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings outlook to Positive from Stable while affirming the country’s rating at ‘B’, marking a key milestone in the nation’s economic trajectory.
The latest upgrade in the outlook reflects growing international confidence in Nigeria’s sweeping macroeconomic and structural policy framework.
Fitch attributed the positive revision to greater naira flexibility, steady disinflation, and a faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, which climbed to USD 54.9 billion by late September 2026 up from USD 32 billion in mid-April 2024. This stronger external buffer has substantially improved the economy’s resilience against global shocks, backed by robust export receipts, remittances, and formalised forex transactions.
The real economy has also demonstrated encouraging momentum. Fitch projects real GDP growth to accelerate to 4.3 percent in 2026, up from 4 percent in the previous year, propelled primarily by non-oil sector activities.
Crude oil production has also consistently met Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, while domestic refining output has begun easing the strain on refined product imports and foreign exchange demand. Average inflation is anticipated to moderate down to 15.4 percent, cutting 2024 levels by more than half.
This rating action mirrors broader global sentiment. All three major international rating agencies have delivered positive verdicts on Nigeria throughout the year, reinforced by S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade in May, Moody’s positive outlook revision in August, and FTSE Russell’s recent decision to return Nigeria to Frontier Market status.
Reacting to the development, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, emphasized that the positive outlook validates the bold reforms spearheaded by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, ranging from the removal of fuel subsidies to exchange rate unification and tax modernization.
While acknowledging areas requiring continued attention such as high interest cost burdens relative to revenue and inflation rates that still outpace peer economies, the Federal Government remains steadfast in its strategy.
Authorities plan to sustain fiscal discipline, optimize non-oil revenue mobilization through comprehensive tax administration, and translate these macro-level gains into tangible food security, job creation, and broad-based prosperity for Nigerian households.
