CBN retains interest rate at 27.5% despite slowing inflation

...As external reserves hit $40.1bn

...Eight banks meet recapitalisation requirements

...Equities maintain rally as MPC holds rates

By Seun Ibiyemi and Grateful Ogunjebe

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 27.5 per cent on Tuesday, signalling continued caution as inflation slows for the third consecutive month while underlying pressures remain.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, speaking at the end of a two-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, confirmed that all 12 MPC members voted to hold the MPR, maintain the asymmetric corridor at +500/-100 basis points, keep the Cash Reserve Ratio at 50 per cent for deposit money banks and 16 per cent for merchant banks, and retain the liquidity ratio at 30 per cent.

Cardoso explained that the decision was driven by the need to sustain disinflation and further restrain price pressures. Headline inflation eased to 22.22 per cent in June from 22.97 per cent in May, supported by lower energy costs and improved foreign exchange stability. Month-on-month inflation rose slightly to 1.68 per cent, up from 1.53 per cent, as food and core inflation edged higher due to increased costs in services, housing, and communication.

“The moderation in energy prices, particularly cooking gas, wood, charcoal, and diesel, played a significant role in easing headline inflation,” Cardoso told reporters at a post-meeting briefing.

Core inflation climbed to 22.76 per cent in June from 22.28 per cent in May, reflecting persistent cost pressures in non-agricultural sectors. Cardoso reaffirmed the Bank’s long-term commitment to price stability, stating that the goal remains to bring inflation back to single digits.

“The Committee remains committed to the Bank’s price stability mandate and will take appropriate measures to reinforce stability and confidence in the economy,” he said.

Despite some positive developments, Cardoso warned of significant risks, citing geopolitical tensions and continuing disruptions in global trade that could drive up import costs.

He expressed confidence in the resilience of Nigeria’s banking system, pointing to robust financial soundness indicators and steady progress in the ongoing recapitalisation programme. Eight commercial banks, he announced, have fully met the new capital requirements, with others advancing toward compliance before the deadline.

Cardoso noted that temporary forbearance measures adopted by the apex bank are consistent with global Basel II standards and intended to help banks build buffers during transitional phases. 

He stressed that the sector remains “fit for purpose”, citing a Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of 13 per cent and Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) within the regulatory ceiling of 5 per cent.

He also reported that Nigeria’s external reserves had risen to $40.11 billion as of 18 July, providing about 9.5 months of import cover, buoyed by improved oil production, higher non-oil exports, and reduced import volumes.

Economic growth strengthened by 3.13 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, up from 2.27 per cent a year earlier, aided by foreign exchange reforms and macroeconomic stabilisation, according to the latest GDP rebasing report from the National Bureau of Statistics. The Purchasing Managers’ Index also stayed in expansionary territory, reinforcing confidence in the private sector.

Looking ahead, Cardoso said the CBN expects further moderation in inflation, supported by tight monetary policy, increased food supply from harvests, and a stable naira. He underscored the importance of continued government efforts to bolster food security through timely access to seeds, fertilisers, and other farming inputs critical to the 2025 growing season.

“The MPC will continue to conduct rigorous assessments of economic conditions, price trends, and outlook to guide future decisions,” he added.

…Equities advance as investors react to MPC decision

Nigeria’s stock market extended its gains on Tuesday, with the All-Share Index rising by 0.47 per cent after the MPC maintained its policy stance. Year-to-date returns now stand at 28.69 per cent, placing Nigerian equities among Africa’s best-performing markets.

Investor sentiment remained buoyant, driven by foreign exchange reforms, softer fixed income yields, banking sector recapitalisation, and expectations of interim dividend announcements. Strong demand for stocks such as Dangote Sugar Refinery, The Initiates, Sovereign Trust Insurance, Nigerian Enamelware, and University Press led the market higher.

Dangote Sugar gained the most on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), climbing from N51 to N56.10, an increase of N5.10 or 10 per cent. The Initiates rose from N11.03 to N12.13, adding N1.10 or 9.97 per cent, while Sovereign Trust Insurance advanced from N1.22 to N1.34, up 12 kobo or 9.84 per cent. Nigerian Enamelware appreciated from N20.35 to N22.35, adding N2 or 9.83 per cent, and University Press jumped from N5.60 to N6.15, gaining 55 kobo or 9.82 per cent.

The NGX All-Share Index closed at 132,451.73 points, with market capitalisation increasing to N83.789 trillion. Trading activity remained robust, as investors exchanged 762,595,236 shares valued at N26.426 billion across 32,365 deals.

Access Holdings, Ellah Lakes, UBA, GTCO, and Lafarge Africa were among the most actively traded stocks. Analysts at Coronation Research anticipate continued capital inflows into equities this week, supported by declining fixed income yields and bargain-hunting in banking shares.

However, Vetiva Research analysts flagged signs of underlying weakness, noting that failure to attract flows into sidelined sectors like consumer and insurance stocks could trigger a short-term pullback if the index drops below the 131,000-point mark.