2026: MAN forecasts stronger naira, lower inflation
...call for urgent policy actions to cut energy costs
By Seun Ibiyemi
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has projected a brighter economic outlook for 2026, forecasting a stronger naira, lower inflation, improved access to credit, and a 4 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.
The Director of Research and Economic Policy Division at MAN, Dr. Oluwasegun Osidipe announced the projections on Tuesday in Lagos during a news conference on the 2025 MAN Think Tank Session.
According to Osidipe, the positive outlook is hinged on favorable oil prices, rising foreign investments, stable energy costs, and effective implementation of key industrial and fiscal policies.
“For manufacturers, the naira is projected to appreciate further to between N1,300 and N1,400 per dollar, driven by global oil price recovery, stronger external reserves, robust export earnings, and increased remittance inflows,” he stated.
He added that headline inflation is expected to decline to 14 per cent, supported by easing food and energy prices, while the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is anticipated to cut the benchmark interest rate to about 23 per cent to stimulate credit expansion and output growth.
Osidipe noted that real manufacturing output growth is projected to reach 3.1 per cent, while the sector’s contribution to GDP is expected to rise to 10.2 per cent, driven by effective execution of tax incentives, the National Single Window Project, and purposeful implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy.
He also forecasted that the country’s overall GDP growth would reach 4 per cent in 2026, buoyed by higher oil output, expansion in the manufacturing and financial sectors, and increased consumption during the 2026 election campaign period.
Meanwhile, the MAN Chief Executive Officers’ Confidence Index (MCCI) rose to 50.7 points in Q3 2025, up from 50.3 points in the previous quarter, a sign of improving optimism among manufacturers.
MAN President, Mr. Francis Meshioye, said the uptick in confidence reflects gradual recovery in the sector despite persistent challenges such as high lending rates averaging 36.6 per cent, reduced credit access of N7.72 trillion, and rising unsold inventories valued at N1.04 trillion.
“While the sector is inching toward recovery, urgent policy actions are needed to cut energy costs, strengthen foreign exchange liquidity, and expand affordable credit access to accelerate growth,” Meshioye said.
He acknowledged, however, that energy costs and raw material imports remain a burden, with alternative energy costs standing at N676.6 billion and raw material imports at N1.72 trillion in the first half of 2025.
MAN’s Director-General, Mr. Segun Ajayi-Kadir, noted that the improvement in confidence, though modest, marked the second consecutive quarterly increase, driven by better business and employment conditions.
He said manufacturers remain optimistic about the coming quarters, buoyed by recent policy adjustments such as interest rate cuts, suspension of the 4 per cent Free-on-Board levy, and approval of tax incentives for local raw material sourcing.
To sustain recovery, Dr. Osidipe recommended that the Federal Government establish specialised financing mechanisms for manufacturers, appoint commercial attachés in key trade nations, and implement the Nigeria Industrial Policy in partnership with MAN.
He also urged the creation of a joint security task force to safeguard industrial zones and the inclusion of MAN in national power policy formulation.
“Manufacturers are confident that a private sector-driven industrial policy will catalyse competitiveness, attract investments, and accelerate Nigeria’s journey toward full industrial recovery,” Osidipe added.