UNICEF, UNESCO figures on out-of-school children wrong — Alausa

…says Nigeria’s out-of-school children closer to 7–8m

The Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, has challenged widely cited international estimates of Nigeria’s out-of-school children, stating that the actual figure is likely between seven and eight million.

Alausa made the assertion on the Afropolitan podcast, where he questioned estimates by international organisations that have placed Nigeria’s out-of-school population between 15 million and 17.5 million.

“We do not have 15 million out-of-school children,” Alausa said, insisting that the figures commonly attributed to Nigeria do not accurately reflect the situation on the ground.

The Minister explained that the higher figures were derived largely from population projections rather than direct household enumeration.

He noted that Nigeria’s delay in conducting a recent national population census has created challenges in accurately determining the number of children who should be in school.

According to him, existing population estimates are used to calculate the number of school-age children, after which assumptions are made about the proportion attending or not attending classes.

Alausa argued that this approach produces figures that do not align with the actual number of children living in communities.

He cited pilot household surveys conducted in Kaduna, Kano, and other parts of the country, noting that these exercises produced significantly lower counts once households were physically identified, mapped, and geolocated.

He further revealed that the Federal Government plans to commission the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to conduct a nationwide household survey to establish a verifiable figure noting that the exercise could take about eight months, with the minister stressing that reliable data were essential for effective educational planning and resource allocation.

“Without data, you’re flying blind,” Alausa said, underscoring his argument that the government must possess reliable information before designing interventions and allocating resources.

Alausa maintained that Nigeria should determine its own education statistics rather than relying principally on figures generated by international agencies.

Accurate data, he noted, would enable the government to identify communities with the highest concentrations of out-of-school children and deploy targeted interventions.

Despite disputing the higher estimates, the minister acknowledged that the issue remains critical, adding that even seven to eight million children outside the classroom represents a major challenge for the country.

He stated that government programmes have already returned more than one million children to classrooms, with interventions concentrated particularly in the North-East and North-West, where insecurity, poverty, and other socioeconomic factors drive educational exclusion.

The out-of-school population remains one of Nigeria’s foremost educational challenges, as concerns over access, affordability, insecurity, displacement, and inadequate school infrastructure continue to hinder enrolment and retention nationwide.

Alausa’s proposed household survey is expected to provide a fresh baseline for measuring the scale of the problem and assessing the effectiveness of ongoing interventions.

However, the minister’s figures and characterisation of existing international estimates, delivered during the podcast interview, have not yet been independently verified against the latest primary data from the NBS or the cited international agencies.