Trade surplus: Positive signal boost for Nigeria’s economy –experts
Financial experts say the trade surplus recorded by Nigeria in the second quarter of 2026 is a positive signal that can boost the country’s economy.
The experts said this in an interview with newsmen on Sunday in Abuja.
The experts were reacting to the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) recent report that total merchandise trade reached N41.44 trillion in the second quarter.
They said that the figures represented a 19.13 per cent increase from N34.79 trillion in first quarter 2026, adding that the latest trade figures was encouraging for the economy.
According to them, the N12.60 trillion trade surplus is significant, with exports standing at N27.02 trillion and imports at N14.42 trillion.
“The total merchandise trade of N41.44 trillion, rising 19.13 per cent over the N34.79 trillion of the first quarter 2026, shows that the external sector is expanding rather than contracting.”
Prof. Adesoji Adesugba, the First Deputy President, Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), however, called for stronger investment in manufacturing, agriculture and value addition.
Adesugba said that there was the need to translate Nigeria’s rising trade surplus into broader economic growth.
“The N12.60 trillion trade surplus was significant, with exports standing at N27.02 trillion and imports at N14.42 trillion,” he said.
Adesugba said that the surplus could strengthen the naira, support external reserves and ease pressure on Nigeria’s balance of payments.
He said the 12.55 per cent year-on-year decline in imports could indicate increased import substitution and stronger domestic production.
Though, he cautioned against celebrating the figures without examining the composition of Nigeria’s exports.
He said crude oil accounted for N12.91 trillion, representing 47.79 per cent of total exports, while mineral products constituted 87.04 per cent.
He said the figures showed that Nigeria’s trade performance remained heavily dependent on commodities and vulnerable to international price movements.
The ACCI first deputy president said that more sustainable opportunities remained in non-oil exports, particularly manufactured products, processed agricultural goods and refined solid minerals.
He noted that non-crude oil exports reached N14.11 trillion, representing 52.21 per cent of exports, while genuine non-oil products contributed N3.73 trillion.
“The decline in agricultural exports underscored the need for stronger efforts to diversify the country’s export base.
“The machinery and transport equipment accounted for N5.46 trillion, representing 37.83 per cent of total imports.
“Imports of machinery and capital goods could support productive capacity if effectively deployed to expand manufacturing and exports,’’ he said.
Adesugba advised the government and private sector to convert the favourable trade balance into productive and value-adding capacity.
He said the current surplus was an opportunity to strengthen economic resilience and reduce dependence on crude oil.
Mr Williams Osaze, the President, Society for the Promotion of People’s Rights, an NGO, described the increase as a positive development to the country`s economy.
Osaze said stronger trade performance could boost industrial activities, create jobs and increase government revenue if export growth was linked to local production.
He emphasised the need to expand non-oil exports, improve infrastructure and support manufacturers to achieve broader economic benefits.
The expert also warned that rising trade figures alone would not automatically translate into better living conditions without lower inflation and higher household incomes.
Dr Chinedu Amadi, the President of Organisation of Youths in International Trade and Commerce (OY-ITC), an NGO, said the trade surplus showed significant growth.
Amadi, however, said comparing naira-denominated trade figures alone may not accurately reflect the economy’s expansion, given significant changes in the value of the naira since 2023.
He said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that Nigeria’s current-account surplus increased from 0.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Products (GDP) in 2023 to 7.5 per cent in 2024.
Amadi said that it declined to 4.8 per cent in 2025, while gross international reserves rose from 40.2 billion dollars in 2024 to 45.8 billion dollars in 2025.
He added that the net international reserves also increased from 23 billion dollars to 35 billion dollars, as well as the IMF projected gross reserves of 58.1 billion dollars for 2026.
Amadi said that the improvements indicated stronger capacity to meet external obligations, support the foreign exchange market and withstand external shocks.
According to him, the foreign exchange reforms have also moved the system closer to a market-based regime, reducing some distortions associated with multiple exchange rates.
He also said that the IMF reported that in March 2026, the naira had appreciated by about 10 per cent year-on-year against the U.S. dollar.
He said, however, the exchange rate remained an important consideration when assessing the substantial growth recorded in naira-denominated trade figures.
“The IMF estimated Nigeria’s nominal GDP at about 252 billion dollars in 2023, 290 billion dollars in 2024 and 377 billion dollars in 2025.
He said that it projected nominal GDP at about 388 billion dollars in 2026, indicating significant recovery in dollar terms following the foreign exchange adjustment after the 2023 reforms.
“Similarly, quarterly merchandise trade increased from about N12.7 trillion in 2023 to N41.44 trillion in the second quarter of 2026.
“However, the increase should not be interpreted as a 225 per cent expansion in physical trade, as exchange-rate depreciation and domestic price increased contributed substantially.
“More importantly, exports have strengthened relative to imports, while Nigeria has sustained sizable external surpluses, providing evidence of improvement in its external position,’’ he said.
Dr Dada Yusuf, said the figures reflected improved foreign exchange earnings and stronger external balances.
Yusuf said that rising exports and lower import dependence could strengthen the naira, improve reserves and support macroeconomic stability.
According to him, the growth also indicates increasing economic activities in key sectors, particularly oil and petroleum products, which remain dominant in Nigeria’s export basket.
Prof. Ken Ife, also an economist and development expert, said the trade surplus was a positive signal because it enhanced Nigeria’s capacity to meet external obligations.
Ife said that sustained surpluses could improve investor’s confidence and provide the government with more fiscal space to support productive sectors of the economy.
He emphasised that the structure of exports remained a major concern, as crude oil and petroleum products still accounted for a substantial share of export earnings.
He noted that the IMF had earlier stated that Nigeria’s reforms had strengthened macroeconomic stability and improved external reserves.
The experts agreed that Nigeria’s growing trade surplus presents an opportunity to deepen economic reforms, diversify exports and achieve more inclusive growth.