By Ismail Omipidan

In war, just like in politics, strategy is everything. But any strategy designed to achieve the selfish ambition of one individual is unlikely to succeed. That is my reading of what is currently playing out in Osun. I only hope those who designed the strategy of delivering 1.5 million votes to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 election will not end up disappointed. You cannot trade party loyalty for a fantasy figure.

The first time I heard about that 1.5 million theory was barely 24 hours after APC lost the August 15 governorship election in Osun. Listening to the National Secretary of the party, Senator Ajibola Basiru, repeat the same thing yesterday, I am now persuaded to believe those who hold the view that some persons in the Presidency, together with some national officials of the party, plotted the defeat of Osun APC in that August election. Whatever it was, we are watching.

However, in bringing opposition figures on board to work for the President’s re-election, local peculiarities, character, and culture of the people should have been taken into consideration. After all, every politics, they say, is local. What works in Rivers and Anambra may not succeed in Osun.

Historically, Osun has never posted up to a million votes in any presidential election, and it will not happen next year, unless some persons just want to write figures. For instance, in 2011, the ACN presidential candidate polled 299,711 votes against PDP’s 188,409, with total registered voters at 1,342,289. In 2015, APC won in Osun with 383,603 votes while PDP scored 249,929, with total registered voters at 1,407,107. In 2019, APC polled 347,634 while PDP had 337,377, with total registered voters at 1,674,729. In 2023, APC polled 342,941 while PDP had 353,860, with registered voters at 1,674,729. Even in the August 15 governorship election just held, the total votes polled by Governor Ademola Adeleke and the APC were less than a million. In any case, voter turnout for presidential and governorship elections always varies. So, where is the 1.5 million votes coming from?

President Tinubu and Oyetola must tread softly and cautiously. Those claiming political pragmatism in Osun are only out to set the two of you against each other. You must therefore watch it. Already, they have presented the President as someone who is jittery over the possible outcome of the 2027 presidential election.

Now that our governor has been appointed the Osun Coordinator for the President, that is fine. I am sure it is part of the strategy to tie him to his promise of delivering President Tinubu at the polls. But the President and the party leadership should, as a matter of urgency, allow Osun APC to have its own structure to drive this election. Already, members are feeling that they are being thrown under the bus. The APC at the national level and the Presidency must not toy with the emotions of the majority of party members in the state. I say it with all sense of modesty that those who pushed for the current arrangement in Osun are in the minority.

The President and his handlers must know that politics is influenced by interest, sentiment, and emotion. As Drew Westen, a professor in the Departments of Psychology and Psychiatry at Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, noted: “In politics, when reason and emotion collide, emotion invariably wins.”

Only recently, I tested Adam Smith’s Rational Choice Theory in one of my works, in establishing some of the factors that influence voters’ choice of candidate in an election. It was established that voters’ decisions and choice of candidates were also influenced by their self-interests and personal gains.

Politics often leans on self-interest, and an average person in Osun would view Adeleke’s emergence as Osun Coordinator as a personal gain to those few individuals who orchestrated it, and may therefore decide not to show commitment to President Tinubu’s re-election.

The Rational Choice Theory was propounded by philosopher Adam Smith in 1776. According to Vaidya (2023), the theory is grounded in classical psychological literature positing that human beings take decisions in relation to their needs and interests. It entails the claim to create a comprehensive explanatory model for social phenomena of any kind, and thus for every form of political communication as well.

This theory, in relation to voting decisions, presupposes that voters use their self-interests to make choices that would provide them with the greatest benefit. These voters weigh their options and make the choice they think will serve their interest best. How these voters decide what will serve them best is usually dependent on their personal preferences. Proponents of Rational Choice Theory believe that there is always a rational justification for behaviours, and that individuals try to maximise their rewards because they are worth the cost.

I know the APC is already thinking of how to cover the deficit that is likely to come from Oyo State. But it cannot get that by playing politics with people’s emotions in Osun. I believe if our governor does his work well, while allowing APC to do theirs, a better result would be guaranteed than this obviously contradictory intellectual disposition of the APC at the national level.

Finally, Oyo can still be managed. How? Governor Seyi Makinde is not in the race to win but to play a spoiler’s role. Unfortunately, he has done extremely well as governor to deserve the sympathy and votes of the majority of Oyo voters. Therefore, I suggest the APC put together some respected leaders of thought from the South West to engage him and have a conversation around a mutually beneficial political relationship. For me, I think this is paramount because if anything happens to the votes he brought to the kitty for Tinubu in 2023, in 2027, it will have dire consequences for the general outlook in the South West. It is not too late. Governor Makinde can still show understanding if those who are to approach him do not do so from a position of arrogance.

This is my take for now. I will return to the issue of Tinubu’s re-election and the North challenge later.