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Naira struggles to maintain stability amidst global challenges

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By Sodiq Adelakun

The naira is facing significant challenges as it once again surpasses a crucial resistance level on the black market, settling at N1,170 against the US dollar.

This comes at a time when the US Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision, adding further uncertainty to the Nigerian currency’s stability.

Despite favorable conditions in the global oil market, Nigeria has failed to capitalize on this opportunity to support its local currency.

The country’s economy has been adversely affected by geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe since February 2022, resulting in a lack of dollar liquidity in the central bank’s vaults.

In response to the currency’s struggles, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has taken unorthodox measures to bolster the naira in the foreign exchange market.

Currency traders are now re-evaluating their strategies following reports that the Nigerian government plans to digitize forex transactions and discourage speculative demand and cash hoarding.

Despite efforts to support the naira, sources of foreign exchange (FX) liquidity remain largely elusive. Nigeria heavily relies on revenue from oil sales as its primary source of dollar inflow.

However, the country’s oil production has been declining month by month, falling short of OPEC’s daily quota of 1.8 million barrels per day. This decline in production, coupled with rising oil prices, has further strained Nigeria’s ability to maintain a stable currency.

Additionally, recent geopolitical developments, including conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe, have increased demand for the dollar.

Market speculators believe demand for the US dollar will skyrocket as investors seek refuge in safe-haven currencies during this period of increased uncertainty.

For the second meeting in a row, the Fed is most likely to maintain its policy rate at 5.25%.

The language in the statement about the likelihood of further tightening as well as Chairman Powell’s remarks about the policy outlook could increase volatility later today US Fed Chairman Powell, while earlier acknowledging the recent tightening of financial conditions in the world’s largest economy, left open the possibility of raising interest rates.

The US dollar has continued to strengthen against other major currencies, with market analysts citing a number of factors contributing to its rise.

These include the recent trade tensions between the US and China, which have led investors to seek out the safety of the dollar.

In addition, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and Eastern Europe has also boosted demand for the currency.

 The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its policy rate at 5.25% for the second consecutive meeting, although any remarks by Chairman Powell about the policy outlook could increase volatility.

However, some analysts suggest that the dollar’s rally may be reaching its peak, and that a reversal could occur if the US economy begins to underperform.

Money market

Nigeria’s inflation rate rises to 33.69% in April 2024

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In April 2024, the headline inflation rate rose to 33.69 percent, up from 33.20 percent in March 2024, marking an increase of 0.49 percent points according to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Comparing year-on-year data, the inflation rate in April 2024 was 11.47 percent points higher than in April 2023, where it stood at 22.22 percent. This indicates that the headline inflation rate has risen significantly over the past year.

Additionally, on a month-to-month basis, the inflation rate for April 2024 was 2.29 percent, which is 0.73 percent lower than the 3.02 percent recorded in March 2024. This suggests that the rate at which prices increased in April 2024 was slower than the rate in March 2024.

In April 2024, the food inflation rate reached 40.53 percent on a year-on-year basis, marking a substantial increase of 15.92 percentage points from the 24.61 percent recorded in April 2023. This significant rise in food inflation can be attributed to higher prices for several items including millet flour, garri, bread, prepacked wheat flour, and semovita, all of which belong to the Bread and Cereals class, as well as for yam tuber, water yam, and cocoyam and others.

For the year ending in April 2024, the average annual rate of food inflation stood at 32.74 percent, representing an increase of 9.52 percentage points over the 23.22 percent average annual rate recorded in April 2023.

Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, reached 26.84 percent in April 2024 on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 6.87 percent from the 19.96 percent recorded in April 2023. The most significant price rises were observed in actual and imputed rentals for housing, motorcycle journeys, bus journeys within a city (under Passenger Transport by Road Class), consultation fees for medical doctors, X-ray photography (under Medical Services Class), and accommodation services.

On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 2.20 percent in April 2024, down from 2.54 percent in March 2024, representing a decrease of 0.34 percent. The average annual core inflation rate for the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 22.84 percent, which is 5.15 percentage points higher than the 17.70 percent recorded in April 2023.

In April 2024, the urban inflation rate on a year-on-year basis reached 36.00 percent, which is 12.61 percentage points higher than the 23.39 percent recorded in April 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate for April 2024 was 2.67 percent, showing a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from the 3.17 percent seen in March 2024. The average urban inflation rate over the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 30.02 percent, marking an increase of 8.53 percentage points from the 21.50 percent reported in April 2023.

In April 2024, the rural inflation rate was 31.64 percent on a year-on-year basis, which is 10.50 percentage points higher than the 21.14 percent seen in April 2023.

On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate for April 2024 was 1.92 percent, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from the 2.87 percent recorded in March 2024. The average rural inflation rate over the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 26.38 percent, which represents an increase of 6.20 percentage points from the 20.18 percent reported in April 2023.

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Governor Sule woos investors to invest in Nasarawa, assures of inclusive economy

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…Counts gains of previous edition of investment summit

By Matthew Denis, Lafia

The Governor of Nasarawa state, Engr. Abdullahi Sule has taken steps to woo investors to invest in the state  at the ongoing Nasarawa Investment Summit.

Delivering his opening speech, Governor Sule disclosed that the state is expanding the existing industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards a better economy.

He said, “What we are witnessing today will further expand our existing pathways to leverage on the industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards enhancing inclusive and sustainable wealth creation and economic prosperity.

“It is with a sense of fulfillment and responsibility that I address you today on the occasion of the Nasarawa Investment Summit, 2024.

“I must acknowledge our most cherished investors and other development partners, who are here to be part of this auspicious occasion. I have no doubt that the coming together of these distinguished and eminent personalities will, no doubt offer us the opportunities to continue to map the future of our State economic landscape in our relentless commitment to explore business opportunities and forge investment partnerships across business endeavour.”

The Governor stressed that it is pertinent to remind you that Nasarawa State organised the first edition of the Nasarawa Investment Summit in 2022 under the theme “Diamond in the Rough: The Making of a New Investment Frontier,” aimed at ushering investment and showcasing our mineral resources to potential investors.

“I am happy to state that the outcome of the Summit informed the influx of investors into the State Who are variously harnessing our God-given endowment.

“Interestingly, the recently commissioned Avatar New Energy Materials Company Limited in Nasarawa State performed by Mr. President, the ASGARD Mining and Processing Plant, Karu, the Nasarawa Technology Village Project in Karu, as well as other numerous investments being carried out in the State were all informed by the outcome of the Summit conducted in 2022.

“It is also heartwarming to state that the Federal Government commissioned the spud-in of the Ebenyi-A Oil Well in Obi Local Government Area of the State. The discovery of Oil and Gas and its subsequent exploration and exploitation will further boost the economic prosperity of our dear country and put Nasarawa State among the comity of Oil producing States.

“I, therefore, call on the investors on Oil and Gas to take advantage of the exploration activities to begin to invest in the sector for the benefit of the society.”

“To ensure full utilisation of our potentials, we have pledged to sustain the Investment Summit in order to further showcase other solid mineral resources which are yet to be identified by interested investors. This is why the theme of this year’s Summit is deliberately coined as ‘The Industrial Renaissance,’ having built some of the key fundamentals required to drive our industrial agenda and present other minerals to our potential investors.”

He explained that the staging of the 2024 Nasarawa Investment Summit,which we are witnessing today will further expand our existing pathways to leverage on the industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards enhancing inclusive and sustainable wealth creation and economic prosperity.

“It is pertinent to point out that, as a State, we have been deliberate in stimulating our economy, building human capacities, creating wealth and generate employment to our people. It is for this reason that we have adopted our policy document christened ‘Nasarawa Economic Development Strategy (NEDS)’ as a driving force towards the initiation and implementation of various programmes and policies which we have achieved so far.

“I must acknowledge that with the assemblage of the experienced and versatile resource persons to engage the participants on the topics earmarked for discussion, I believe that the outcome of this Summit will go a long way towards actualizing our dream of industrialising Nasarawa State and position it as a leading champion.”

While applauding President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his sustained effort in driving the Nigeria economy to prosperity, he said, “I assure Mr. President of our unalloyed loyalty and continued support in order to take our country to greater heights.”

“Let me as always, call on our development partners to continue to invest in Nasarawa State with the view to open the frontiers of economic prosperity for the benefit of all. Indeed, Nasarawa means business.”

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CBN launches strategy to double remittances, grants AIP to 14 new IMTOs

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has activated plans to double foreign-currency remittance flows through formal channels by granting 14 new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) Approval-in-Principle (AIP).

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