The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise has warned that Nigeria’s 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) is still anchored on fragile macroeconomic assumptions, despite what it described as a welcome shift toward greater fiscal realism by the Federal Government.

This was contained in a statement signed by the Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre, Dr Muda Yusuf, dated 7 December 2025.

The statement reads partly: “The recently presented highlights of the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) by the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, signal a welcome and deliberate shift toward more conservative, realistic, and credible fiscal planning.

“By adopting more cautious revenue and expenditure assumptions, the new MTEF strengthens the foundation for improved budget credibility and more sustainable fiscal outcomes. However, the shift—though significant—does not go far enough, particularly regarding crude oil price and output assumptions.

“Persistent revenue underperformance—rooted in overly optimistic macroeconomic assumptions—remains one of the most significant weaknesses of Nigeria’s budget process. This has repeatedly resulted in wide gaps between appropriations and actual implementation.

“The emerging shift toward more realistic assumptions in the 2026–2028 MTEF is commendable, but stronger measures are still required to restore the budget as a credible governance tool rather than a ceremonial annual document.”

In the broader analysis that followed, the CPPE noted that the revised oil production benchmark of 1.80 million barrels per day was a more prudent departure from the unrealistic 2.06 million barrels per day used in the 2025 budget.

However, it insisted that a benchmark of 1.6 million barrels per day would better reflect Nigeria’s chronic underproduction, pipeline vandalism and operational disruptions.

The organisation also reviewed the proposed oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, acknowledging it as softer than the 2025 projection but still above global forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Goldman Sachs and the World Bank, which range between $55 and $60 per barrel. According to the Centre, aligning closer to $60 would help strengthen fiscal stability.

Dr Yusuf further observed that the benchmark exchange rate of ₦1,540/$ reflects likely liquidity constraints linked to the 2026 election cycle and the wider economic environment. He said the assumption, though reflective of expected pressures, provides a more credible planning base for FX-linked projects, imported inputs and capital commitments.

On the revenue side, the CPPE described the projected ₦34.33 trillion earnings for 2026—16 per cent lower than the ₦36.35 trillion estimate for 2025—as a welcome step away from the Federal Government’s habitual revenue optimism.

The Group, however, warned that Nigeria’s persistent debt-service burden remained alarming, with a projected ₦15.91 trillion earmarked for servicing debts—representing 46 per cent of expected revenue.

The Centre also faulted the delayed submission of the MTEF to the National Assembly, stressing that it undermines rigorous legislative scrutiny and disrupts the early preparation of the national budget, contrary to the Fiscal Responsibility Act which mandates submission at least four months before the new fiscal year.

It urged lawmakers to resist pressures to inflate expenditure, expand the budget without revenue backing or reintroduce unrealistic macroeconomic assumptions, insisting that the National Assembly plays a crucial role in upholding budget credibility.

Dr Yusuf added that while the 2026–2028 MTEF marks a positive step toward more grounded fiscal planning, both the Executive and Legislature must commit to realistic projections, transparent expenditure, and disciplined fiscal management to restore public trust and embed macroeconomic stability.