Kwara central senatorial seat: Between Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq and Saliu Mustapha, who flies?

Muyideen Aliyu, Ilorin

As the race for the 2027 general elections across the country gathers momentum, with the official guidelines and timetable from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) stipulating 19 August for the commencement of presidential campaigns, political activities have begun in earnest.

However, the Kwara political space has been alive, as concerns are being raised both within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the major opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), with the recent resignation of Senator Saliu Mustapha, representing Kwara Central at the National Assembly, from the All Progressives Congress.

Mustapha’s resignation letter, addressed to the chairman, Gambari Ward One, of the party in Ilorin East Local Government, reads: “Following careful considerations of the recent developments Kwara APC, I have formally resigned my membership of the party in the state.”

He said the decision follows weeks of extensive consultations and engagements with relevant stakeholders, supporters and constituents across Kwara Central Senatorial District, and well-meaning Kwarans. He stressed that, “as a politician, I have always believed that politics must be about people, principles and purpose. Where the path of a political platform no longer sufficiently aligns with these convictions and the aspirations of the people one represents, the honourable thing to do is to chart a new course.”

Mustapha commended the leadership of the APC led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, expressed gratitude for the relationships and experiences afforded over the years, and assured that, while the political platform may change, principles, purpose and commitment to the people remain unchanged.

The Turaki of Ilorin had been offered the Kwara Central senatorial ticket of the People’s Democratic Party to fly the kite against Governor Mallam Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, who is also vying for the same ticket to represent the central senatorial district at the National Assembly in 2027.

But political analysis opined that Mustapha’s political calculations may produce the opposite outcome of what he expects, with his resignation from the APC being celebrated by PDP strategists as a major opportunity to challenge Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq in Kwara Central Senatorial District. What the opposition sees as a political gain may become an advantage for the APC, both politically and legally.

The calculations and permutations may be assuming that Mustapha’s departure automatically translates into a corresponding loss for the APC. His exit, instead, allows the party to move beyond an internal contest, consolidate its political machinery and focus its grassroots structure behind Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq. The party and the governor are aware that, since his assumption at the National Assembly in 2023, he had been hobnobbing with the PDP and Dr Bukola Saraki.

Equally, the immediate challenges before the PDP may be the legal route it would have to navigate if it intends to place Mustapha on its ticket, as the Electoral Act 2026 requires every political party to maintain a digital membership register and make it available to INEC not later than 21 days before its primaries, congresses or conventions.

The Electoral Act also provides that only members whose names are contained in the submitted register are eligible to vote or be voted for in party primaries, and a party cannot use another register for its primaries. INEC extended the deadline for submission of the registers for the 2027 elections to 10 May 2026 and confirmed that all registered political parties had submitted their registers.

However, if Mustapha was captured in the APC register while pursuing his gubernatorial ambition and was not included in the PDP register submitted within the stipulated time, the PDP would have to establish the legal basis upon which it intends to nominate him. Political favouritism cannot replace compliance with the Electoral Act, and a political party cannot create a retrospective membership history to accommodate new political arrangements.

Also, the issue of placeholders creates another complication. Section 33 of the Electoral Act 2026 provides that a political party cannot change or substitute a candidate whose name has been submitted under Section 29 except in the case of death or withdrawal by the candidate. Where there is such a withdrawal or death, the party must conduct another primary within 14 days to produce a new candidate.

Any attempt, however, to replace an existing PDP candidate with Mustapha from the APC is a matter requiring strict compliance with the law. The question would be whether the circumstances permit such a substitution and whether the required fresh primary and other statutory conditions have been satisfied.

The PDP cannot simply treat the substitution process as a political shortcut for introducing a candidate who was not part of its original nomination process. The question of multiple nomination: Section 35 of the 2026 Act provides that where a candidate knowingly allows himself to be nominated by more than one political party or in more than one constituency, the nomination is void.

This is particularly relevant where nomination processes involving different parties or offices overlap and would require careful examination of the actual documents and circumstances.

The PDP may be making a serious miscalculation by bringing a prominent politician into its fold and assuming it automatically transfers his political influence or success to the party. Political structures do not change platforms simply because an individual does. Voters are not political assets that move mechanically from one party to another, and a high-profile candidate is not automatically a winning candidate.

In this connection, the ruling APC has no concerns or tension over Mustapha’s departure, as the candidature of Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq for the Kwara Central contest has the advantages of incumbency, an established party structure and a record of governance that the APC can take directly to the electorate.

The APC’s task is to maintain its grassroots structure, consolidate its stakeholders and present the 2027 election as a choice between the continuity of an established administration and an opposition whose candidate-selection strategy may be facing serious legal questions.

If the PDP proceeds with a nomination that does not comply with the Electoral Act, the APC would have every legitimate reason to challenge the process through the appropriate legal channels. The dispute would be determined not by political excitement but by membership records, nomination documents, primary processes, substitution procedures and the applicable judicial precedents.

What the PDP is celebrating as a major political breakthrough could ultimately become a double advantage for the APC, as Mustapha’s departure gives the party an opportunity to consolidate around Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq. Mustapha remains a respected political figure in Ilorin, but political prominence is not a substitute for a valid nomination, just as popularity alone does not guarantee electoral victory.

If the PDP gets its legal nomination wrong, it may discover that it has created a contest that could be challenged. It will still have to defeat an incumbent governor with an established political structure and a record to defend. That would make Saliu Mustapha’s much-publicised move not the political earthquake the opposition expects, but a political miscalculation that could ultimately give the seat to the APC.

The recent Osun State governorship election may be referenced, with the might, influence, power and money being displayed by the ruling APC to win the election for the party, due to the grassroots support garnered by the incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke to win the election.

Saliu Mustapha has influence not only in the Kwara Central senatorial district of the four local government areas of Asa, Ilorin West, Ilorin South and Ilorin East, but across the state through the Saliu Mustapha Foundation, as he has touched many lives with the foundation.

If the PDP succeeds and overcomes the electoral hurdles before it over Mustapha’s candidature, the Kwara Central senatorial district election may be fierce, as he controls a substantial number of grassroots supporters. Though Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq has what it takes, as the leader of the party in the state and the incumbent, security, influence, power among others, the electorate will decide whose cap fits.