IMF’s 3.4% economic growth projection misrepresents Nigeria’s potential — TMSG

The Tinubu Media Support Group (TMSG) has dismissed the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recently revised economic growth forecast for Nigeria, describing it as an underestimation of the country’s economic strength and potential.

In a statement released on Wednesday in Abuja and jointly signed by its Chairman, Emeka Nwankpa, and Secretary, Dapo Okubanjo, the group argued that Nigeria’s economy is on a stronger footing than the IMF’s projections suggest.

The IMF had in its latest Article IV consultation raised Nigeria’s 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 3.4 per cent, up from its earlier projections of 3.2 per cent in April 2024 and 3.0 per cent in an earlier 2025 outlook.

While the IMF acknowledged policy reforms and modest gains in oil production, it cautioned that growth remains low on a per capita basis and pointed to persistent challenges including falling oil prices, inflationary pressures, and high poverty rates. It advised Nigeria to focus on strengthening fiscal reserves, expanding targeted cash transfers, maintaining a tight monetary stance, and implementing further structural reforms to foster inclusive and sustainable growth.

TMSG, however, maintained that President Bola Tinubu’s reform agenda is laying a strong foundation for long-term stability and expansion, and that the revised IMF figures still do not reflect the actual trajectory of the economy.

“We are not entirely surprised that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has had to revise its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025 upwards to 3.4 per cent from three per cent. This adjustment comes only a few months after it had revised the figure from 3.2 per cent to three per cent,” the statement said.

“It confirms our conviction that President Tinubu’s economic reforms are gradually delivering results, as shown by the country’s GDP growth of 3.84 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 ,  the fastest pace recorded since 2021, which contradicted the IMF’s earlier 3.2 per cent forecast.”

The group recalled that several analysts had questioned the IMF’s conservative outlook, arguing that the assessment failed to take into account Nigeria’s ongoing diversification of its revenue streams beyond crude oil.

TMSG also cited the remarks of Prof. Ken Ife, Chief Economist at ECOWAS, who had previously criticised the IMF’s assumptions, asserting that the institution lacked a full grasp of Nigeria’s unique economic framework.

The group encouraged the IMF to reassess its 2026 forecast as well, noting that the Fund had recently praised the Federal Government’s new tax reform measures set to be implemented from January 2026.

“We align with the Independent Media and Policy Initiative’s (IMPI) outlook, which projects a five per cent annual economic growth rate, driven by enhanced macroeconomic stability and sustained reforms,” the statement concluded.