By Sodiq Adelakun

As Nigeria marks 26 years of uninterrupted democracy, concerns are rising that its multi-party political system may be teetering toward dominance by a single party. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, now in his second year in office, has pursued an ambitious economic reform agenda aimed at stabilisation, diversification, and institutional transparency. Yet, recent political developments have cast a long shadow over these achievements.

A wave of defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is prompting fears that Nigeria could slip into a de facto one-party state ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The shift began in earnest in March 2025 with the high-profile departure of former Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai from the APC and his brief, ultimately unsuccessful, attempt to rally opposition leaders like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi into a cohesive coalition.

Since then, defections have become a drumbeat. Governors and national figures from the PDP, SDP, NNPP, and APGA have either declared support for Tinubu or formally crossed over to the APC. Delta State, historically a PDP bastion, saw a mass realignment led by Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and former governor Ifeanyi Okowa.

In Akwa Ibom, Governor Umo Eno endorsed Tinubu for a second term, while Anambra’s Governor Charles Soludo of APGA hosted the president with royal fanfare.

The defections, while not unprecedented in Nigerian politics, have reached a scale that many analysts say threatens the very premise of competitive democracy. Critics argue that these moves may be less about ideological conviction and more about access to federal power, fear of prosecution, or political inducement.

Civil society groups warn of an emerging imbalance that risks hollowing out opposition voices, undermining accountability, and reducing elections to little more than formalities.

This political centralisation contrasts sharply with Tinubu’s reformist posture in other areas. His administration has launched a sweeping economic transformation programme, focused on diversifying away from oil dependence.

The Agricultural Transformation Agenda, digital economy initiatives like the Nigeria Tech Startup Growth Fund, and localisation campaigns such as “Made in Nigeria” have gained traction. Manufacturing output has seen a boost from improved infrastructure and tariff incentives, while the Digital Economy Growth Fund has bolstered fintech and e-commerce sectors.

This is as the Tinubu administration has moved to enhance public finance transparency. The reintroduction and upgrade of the Open Treasury Portal now provides real-time visibility into budget allocations and expenditures.

The launch of the National Central Database of Recovered Assets has consolidated information on looted and repatriated funds, a move praised by international partners as a breakthrough in anti-corruption efforts.

Yet even amid these gains, democratic watchers see worrying signs. Attacks on press freedom are on the rise—at least 45 incidents involving journalists and media outlets were recorded between May 2023 and April 2024.

The administration’s proposal to regulate social media has drawn criticism from human rights groups, who fear it could be a pretext for curbing dissent. The civic space, already fragile, continues to shrink, with activists and opposition voices facing mounting pressure.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), meanwhile, has been strained by a surge in by-elections, driven largely by political vacancies created through defections. Since June 2023, at least 23 seats have gone up for vote, stretching the Commission’s budget and logistical capacity. Though electoral processes have continued at the state and local levels, questions about electoral credibility and systemic independence are growing louder.

Judicial reform has seen some measurable gains. In December 2023, President Tinubu appointed 11 new justices to the Supreme Court, finally restoring its full bench for the first time in decades. The enactment of the Judicial Autonomy Act in 2024 led to a 300% pay raise for judicial officers, a symbolic and practical move to reduce susceptibility to executive influence. However, institutional independence remains a work in progress, as courts continue to face pressure in high-profile political and corruption cases.

On the security front, Tinubu initiated an overhaul of the national architecture shortly after assuming office. Key leadership changes, improved inter-agency coordination, and the deployment of advanced surveillance tools have yielded some progress, particularly in reducing insurgent activity and kidnapping incidents in certain hotspots. But the underlying problems of underfunding, corruption, and human rights violations persist.

Programs to integrate local vigilantes into national frameworks and expand community policing have had mixed results, often lacking in oversight or sustainable funding.

Meanwhile, the anti-corruption drive has recorded both symbolic and substantive milestones. The government has recovered over \$150 million in looted assets, some of which are earmarked for infrastructure and social welfare projects. It has also pushed forward whistleblower protection legislation, although critics remain cautious, citing selective prosecutions and unresolved allegations within ruling circles.

Despite these mixed signals, Tinubu’s administration continues to tout its reformist credentials. Tax reforms have improved revenue collection and digital compliance, while the newly created National Philanthropy Office aims to unlock private capital for social development.

Efforts to enhance civic participation, particularly among youth, are also underway, though many remain sceptical given the constriction of free expression and organised activism.

Perhaps the deepest challenge is that the economic dividends of reform have not been evenly felt. While FDI rose by 12% in 2024, inflation and energy costs continue to squeeze household incomes.

Unemployment remains stubbornly high, and poverty levels are yet to see significant declines. The promise of structural transformation, while real, has yet to translate into broad-based social uplift.

As the 2027 elections approach, Nigeria stands at a crossroads. The Tinubu government’s push for economic transformation and digital transparency represents a serious attempt to restore public trust in governance.

Yet the erosion of political competition and civic space raises legitimate questions about the direction of the country’s democratic experiment. For democracy to flourish, economic progress must be accompanied by political plurality, institutional independence, and active citizen engagement.

The stakes are clear. Sustained reform will require not just economic management, but a reinvigorated commitment to democratic norms, where power is contested, institutions are respected, and all voices have room to speak. Without that, Nigeria’s democracy at 26 may be growing in years, but shrinking in substance.