Tinubu’s “Nigeria First” Policy signals economic shift, but can it break import cycle?

By Seun Ibiyemi 

In a decisive push to strengthen Nigeria’s domestic economy and curb reliance on foreign goods, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in May 2025, signed into effect the Renewed Hope Nigeria First policy, a mandate requiring all federal Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to prioritize Nigerian-made goods and services in public procurement.

Described by officials as a long-overdue reform, the policy aims to redirect public funds toward local industries, stimulate job creation, and preserve the nation’s dwindling foreign reserves. Yet, analysts caution that its success depends less on policy statements and more on implementation, enforcement, and structural reforms.

The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, who announced the directive after a Federal Executive Council meeting at Aso Rock, explained that the policy “puts Nigeria at the centre of every kobo the government spends.” 

He confirmed that an Executive Order is imminent to give the policy full legal backing.

Drawing comparisons to Donald Trump’s “America First” policy, Nigeria’s version asserts that no federal spending should go abroad if a local option exists. The Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) has been directed to:

Revise procurement guidelines to favor local producers: Maintain a registry of vetted Nigerian suppliers, Enforce a Local Content Compliance Framework, Oversee the deployment and training of procurement officers across MDAs.

Under the new rules, foreign goods or services already available locally can only be procured with written waivers from the BPP. 

Where no local option exists, contracts must now include provisions for technology transfer, local production, or skills development, mirroring similar policies in Nigeria’s Sugar Master Plan.

MDAs have been given immediate deadlines to revise their 2025 procurement plans in line with the new standards.

The bigger problem: Nigeria’s structural dependency

While the policy is bold on paper, the broader economic context paints a more complex picture. 

Despite its agricultural potential, Nigeria imported $689.88 million worth of food in Q1 2024 alone, a 40 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase driven largely by wheat and other staples.

The industrial sector also leaned heavily on imports, consuming $1.94 billion in foreign exchange during the same period, with manufacturing following at $594.63 million, mostly for machinery and raw materials.

The oil sector remains an even greater paradox. Despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, Nigeria imported a significant share of its refined petroleum products, with mineral fuels accounting for 35 per cent of total imports in Q2 2024. 

These figures underscore the country's chronic underinvestment in local refining and industrial infrastructure.

What the Policy Promises

If fully implemented, the Nigeria First policy could: Conserve foreign exchange by cutting import spending, Create jobs in manufacturing, agriculture, and services, Strengthen national productivity by localizing supply chains, 

Boost industrial self-reliance, forcing key sectors to develop domestic capacity.

Analysts project that shifting just 30 per cent of import spending toward local production could create over 500,000 jobs within three years and spark innovation across key industries.

However, Nigeria’s track record raises valid concerns. The same institutions tasked with enforcing this policy have historically struggled with:

Weak regulatory oversight.

Corruption in procurement processes.

Poor infrastructure and power supply.

Low competitiveness of local industries.

Experts emphasize that without serious investment in local capacity, infrastructure, and education, the policy risks becoming another well-intentioned initiative with limited impact.

The BPP must go beyond issuing directives and lead systemic change auditing MDAs regularly, training procurement officers, and ensuring accountability across the board.

Additionally, sectors such as high-tech manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and refining will likely remain dependent on foreign inputs in the short term. 

The policy makes room for this, but only if such contracts include long-term provisions for local development.

Outlook

The Nigeria First policy represents more than procurement reform, it’s a test of the administration’s resolve to fix a deeply flawed economic structure. 

Its success will require not only compliance from MDAs but also sustained political will, transparency, and investment.

President Tinubu’s ambition is clear. The real question is whether the machinery of government can deliver results that match the rhetoric.

Conclusion

Nigeria’s import addiction has long drained its economy. The Nigeria First policy seeks to reverse that trajectory, but like many past reforms, it will succeed only if backed by rigorous execution.

The next 12 to 24 months will be decisive. Will this policy become the economic turning point Tinubu envisions or just another slogan in Nigeria’s long history of missed opportunities?