The perils of a potential drift toward a one-party state

By Idowu Adebomi

Nigeria’s political landscape is undergoing a profound and potentially precarious realignment. As of December 9, 2025, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) controls 26 states, leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with a shrinking share of six. The Accord Party, APGA, Labour Party, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) cling to one state each. 

With intense speculation that Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang may soon defect, the APC appears poised to extend its dominance to 27 states, effectively painting the political map in a single colour.

To some observers, this steady stream of defections is a testament to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political dexterity and the APC’s expanding influence.

However, a more critical view suggests a troubling trend where governors are allegedly compelled to switch allegiances to secure their political survival, a narrative reinforced by recent developments in Bayelsa and Rivers states. Regardless of the motivation, the cumulative effect is unmistakable, Nigeria is tilting dangerously towards a de facto one-party system.

This trajectory should be a source of grave concern for all Nigerians. A single-party order is inherently unhealthy for a developing democracy, particularly in Africa, where history demonstrates that the prolonged concentration of power often breeds authoritarianism. Past experiences across the continent and indeed within Nigeria show how entrenched leaders frequently manipulate institutions to retain control, sometimes ruling by proxy long after leaving office. The recurring godfather–godson crises witnessed in states such as Anambra, Lagos, and Rivers underscore the toxicity of such hegemony.

While proponents of a one-party system often argue that it promotes political stability and accelerates policy implementation, such claims are largely context-dependent and often misleading. Even in economically balanced nations cited as examples such as China or Russia, single-party dominance has come at a significant cost to political freedoms. In less stable democracies, a one-party system risks mirroring military autocracy, where dissenting voices are muted, and power is wielded without restraint.

For Nigeria, the dangers are particularly stark. A one-party system undermines democratic choice by limiting citizens’ ability to select among competing visions and leaders. It suppresses opposition, marginalises alternative viewpoints, and weakens the fundamental freedoms of speech, association, and the press. Without a viable opposition, the mechanisms of accountability erode; checks and balances weaken; and governance becomes susceptible to unilateral decisions and the abuse of power.

Furthermore, unchecked dominance creates fertile ground for corruption, nepotism, and state capture, as political elites operate with little to no scrutiny. Over time, innovation and responsiveness decline, public opinion is neglected, and resentment festers conditions that ultimately breed instability rather than the stability promised by proponents of a monolithic political structure. Ironically, many of these warning signs are already evident in Nigeria’s current political climate, and a full embrace of such an order could push the country toward deeper democratic erosion.

The responsibility for arresting this drift does not rest solely with the ruling party. Opposition parties must urgently put their houses in order. Persistent internal wrangling and opportunistic defections only expose institutional weaknesses and deprive Nigerians of credible alternatives. Politicians who flee their platforms in search of relevance may find temporary shelter, but they will remain outsiders in any new political fold.

If Nigeria’s democracy is to be preserved, the APC must prioritise governance over political conquest. Delivering on campaign promises, stabilising the economy, improving security, and rebuilding public trust must take precedence over recruiting disaffected politicians to swell electoral numbers.

For President Tinubu, history will judge not the size of his party’s dominance, but the quality of governance delivered to the people. A vibrant democracy thrives on competition, accountability, and choice; Nigeria stands to gain little and lose much by drifting into a one-party state.