FEATURE
Osun: Understanding the issues before Appeal Court


By Ismail Omipidan
Last Monday, the litigants in the Osun governorship tussle appeared before the three-man Appeal panel, in Abuja, led by Justice M.L. Shuaibu. But for the magnanimity of the panel, the counsel for all the parties would have lost the opportunity to give the “Chemistry and Biology” of their briefs.
Once the justices took their seats, Justice M. L. Shuaibu expressed concern that counsel for all the parties had not complied with the practice direction of the Appeal Court in filing their briefs.
He said that if they were to wield the big stick, they would have declared all the briefs invalid. If that had happened, that would have been the end of the matter. Case closed!
But the Justices in this instance tempered justice with mercy and delved into the “Chemistry and Biology” of the briefs.
However, rather than acknowledging the benevolence of the Justices, some of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) members, including one of their lawyers, went to town twisting what transpired. Anyway, that is not the crux of this discourse. The discourse is mainly to examine the issues before the Appeal Court with a view to making Nigerians have a better understanding of what is at stake.
The Osun Election Petition Tribunal on January 27 nullified the election of Senator Ademola Adeleke as Governor of Osun State on the basis of over-voting, saying, among other things, “In other words, the defenses of the respondents are tainted with fundamental flaws, irreconcilable and unreliable, incapable of defeating the credible evidence tendered by the petitioners in respect of the 744 polling units where over voting has been established.”
In arriving at the decision, the Tribunal examined certain materials, including two BVAS reports and a report that emanated from the candidate of the PDP, following what their counsel called a forensic examination of the BVAS machines used in the conduct of the election.
Let me state from the outset that contrary to the position being canvassed by the INEC’s counsel, Prof. Paul Ananaba, to justify his synchronisation position, there is a difference between what happened on July 16 Governorship election in Osun and that of the February 25 presidential election. In Osun, results were transmitted immediately on the day of election alongside the number of accredited voters through IReV (INEC Result Viewing) Portal. But that was not the case on February 25. So, there was no basis of comparison. That is one.
Two, the first BVAS report, which the APC and its candidate, Adegboyega Oyetola, obtained from INEC, which formed the basis of their petition, was released to them 10 days after a declaration and a return had been made. The report was generated by INEC from its back-end server. But some people said due to network challenge, the figures had not been synchronised before it was given to Oyetola and the APC by INEC. The question is, is it possible for there not to be network for the whole of 10 days to enable the transmitted figure drop on the INEC’s server as being canvassed by both counsel for INEC and Senator Adeleke?
Three, for me, the position of INEC in its affidavit to the Court of Appeal recently as it relates to the fact that the accreditation data contained in the BVAS could not be tampered with or lost, as they would be stored and easily retrieved from its accredited back-end server, is a vindication of the Tribunal’s position which relied on the BVAS report obtained from the back -end server by Oyetola and the APC.
Four, the second BVAS report, which was obtained by the PDP during the pendency of the petition, which they said was the synchronised BVAS report, unfortunately had issues. Counsel for APC and Oyetola were able to point out over-voting in over 100 polling units in that same report.
Five, the report that emanated from Senator Ademola Adeleke, which his counsel prayed the Tribunal to consider while disowning the INEC’s synchronised BVAS report, also admitted that there was over-voting. The only difference being that, according to them, the over-voting occured in only six polling units. However, it was not Senator Ademola Adeleke that conducted the election; therefore, he could not have submitted a report of an exercise he never conducted.
Besides, in my years of reporting election petition proceedings, this is the first time INEC and the beneficiary of the return made by it will not be on the same page. For Senator Ademola Adeleke’s counsel to have disowned the INEC’s synchronised BVAS report, it means something was fundamentally wrong.
Regardless, at the Appeal Court, while Oyetola and APC urged the appellate court to dismiss the Adeleke, the PDP and INEC appeals, they prayed the court to hold that Governor Ademola Adeleke was unfit to run for the office of the governor, having established a forgery case against him by the Tribunal.
The appeal panel, led by Justice M. L. Shuaibu reserved the judgement for a later date after taking arguments from counsel for Oyetola and the APC, Prince Lateef Fagbemi, SAN,
counsel to Adeleke, PDP and INEC, Onyechi Ikpeazu, SAN, Alex Izinyon, SAN and Prof. Paul Ananaba, SAN, respectively.
In all, the court heard four different appeals, including the cross appeal filed by Oyetola and the APC.
Arguing the cross appeal, counsel for Oyetola, Chief Akin Olujinmi, (SAN), noted that the tribunal erred in law when it held that Adeleke was qualified to contest for the election, even after being found to have submitted a forged certificate. To this end, it prayed the Appeal Court to hold that Governor Adeleke was not qualified to stand for the election in the first instance.
On his part, Ikpeazu had argued that the failure of the tribunal member 2, Chief Magistrate Basiru Rabi, to make pronouncement as regards the lead judgement other than signing it renders the decision a nullity.
Justice Shuaibu at this point challenged Adeleke’s counsel to explain the interpretation of the Chief Magistrate Rabi’s signature on the judgement and the use of “we” in the majority judgement. But Ikpeazu insisted that signing of the judgement was not enough.
On the issue of BVAS report upon which Oyetola used to challenge the result of the election, they argued that assuming the tribunal had found that there was over-voting as shown on the report, it should have applied the principle of the Margin of Lead and order a rerun election in the affected polling units.
The INEC’s counsel also in his arguments admitted that the INEC witness indeed admitted over-voting on the polling units upon which she was cross-examined, but it was not enough to nullify the election.
But counsel for Oyetola, Fagbemi, SAN, said there was confusion among the appellants’ submissions, as they had produced three different BVAS reports, which justified the position of the tribunal that there was indeed over-voting in that election.
“INEC claimed there was over-voting in over 1, 000 polling units. The implication is that the 744 polling units we challenged fall within the said over 1,000 polling units. We are only concerned about 744 polling units and we built our case around those areas. They can keep the rest, we concentrated on what we need,” Fagbemi added.
He argued further that the issuance of another BVAS report and production of BVAS machines in court after a petition had been filed based on the earlier BVAS report issued to Oyetola and APC was nothing but an afterthought.
According to him, though INEC produced the BVAS machines and the boxes containing the machines were opened, the machines were never operated to authenticate the claims made by the so called expert, who was hired by the first appellant (Adeleke).
Fagbemi, SAN, further submitted that since the said report from the inspection of the BVAS machines did not emanate from INEC, which conducted the election, the first appellant who was the beneficiary of the return made by INEC, cannot come up with a report other than that of INEC.
He said the respondents (Oyetola and APC) who were the petitioners at the tribunal had proven over-voting and the tribunal was right to have so held.
On the issue of application of Margin of Lead being canvassed by the appellants, Fagbemi averred that they did not make any pleading to that effect, and no evidence was led on specific polling units.
He also described the INEC counsel submission as a non-issue because the Commission did not call any electoral officer or ad-hoc staff to prove that BVAS failed to transmit record on election day.
In the cross-appeal filed by Oyetola and the APC on the forged certificate by Adeleke, Olujinmi argued that since the tribunal had found that he forged the certificate, he ought to have been disqualified from contesting the election.
He said that the documents tendered which the tribunal relied on to find him qualified for the election were documentary hearsay that could not be relied upon.
Olujinmi further argued that the judgement of the Court of Appeal relied on by the cross-respondent could not exonerate Adeleke as the arguments canvased and evidence tendered in the previous case were not the same with the ones before the tribunal. He, therefore, prayed the court to allow the cross- appeal.
After listening to all the arguments of counsel, the panel reserved judgement in all the four appeals, which it said would be communicated to parties at a later date.
Recall that once the election was over on July 16, INEC announced the results on July 17. Before the trial, some PDP lawyers told us that there were polling units where more than one BVAS machine was used in the July 16 election, and therefore there was merging of results.
But throughout the trial, INEC never stated where and when two BVAS machines were used. Again, assuming they were used and it forgot to lead the evidence in that regard, the merging of results would still have to take place before announcing the final results.
For instance, INEC witness, a Deputy Director in the ICT Department, Mrs. Abimbola Oladunjoye, who admitted that there was over-voting in the July 16 governorship election never said anything about merging of results.
She was cross-examined by the Petitioners’ counsel, Chief Akin Olujinmi, SAN. She admitted under cross-examination that in Ward 4 unit 7, Ede South Local Government, there is an over-voting of 75, as the figure of accreditation on the BVAS report presented by INEC is 313, while the result on form EC8A is 383.
Oladunjoye’s attention was also drawn to paragraph 21.36 of her witness statement where she stated that the accreditation figure was 830, but in the BVAS report presented by INEC, the figure of accreditation was 793, admitting that there was an over-voting of 37.
The witness also admitted that in paragraph 26.7 of her witness statement, there is an accreditation figure of 402, while the accreditation figure on the INEC BVAS report was 263, admitting that there is an over voting of 139.
Also in paragraph 23.24 of her witness statement, Oladunjoye agreed that the accreditation figure she mentioned was 448, while the accreditation figure on BVAS was 224, admitting that there is an over voting of 224.
The INEC witness who admitted that she signed and certified a BVAS report for the Petitioners further said that the copy of the report was different from the one issued to the respondents, adding that she never indicated that the report issued to the Petitioners was an interim document which would be subjected to synchronisation.
She testified that the synchronisation was done after election results had been declared on July 17, 2022 and BVAS report had been issued to the Petitioners on July 27, 2022.
Since INEC admitted at the trial that synchronisation occurred after July 27, the Petitioners, through their lead Counsel, Prince Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, submitted that synchronisation was “a strange coinage surreptitiously designed to cure the over-voting presented to the Tribunal.”
From my own reading of the judgement and Electoral Act, it appears the Tribunal relied on Sections 47 (2) and 51 (2), to draw its conclusion.
For instance, Section 47 (2) of the Electoral Act 2022 stipulates that “To vote, the presiding officer shall use a smart card reader or any other technological device that may be prescribed by the Commission, for the accreditation of voters, to verify, confirm or authenticate the particulars of the intending voter in the manner prescribed by the Commission.” In the case of Osun Governorship Election, BVAS was deployed.
Now, Section 51 (2) of the Act further stipulates that “Where the number of votes cast at an election in any polling unit exceeds the number of accredited voters in that polling unit, the presiding officer shall cancel the result of the election in that polling unit.”
But those canvassing for a rerun, are relying on Section 52 (3) of the Electoral Act, which states that “Where the result of an election is cancelled in accordance with subsection (2), there shall be no return for the election until another poll has taken place in the affected polling unit”.
However, this latest provision only envisages a situation where those charged with the responsibility of conducting the election apply the provision of Section 64 of the Electoral Act, in which case, they would have cured the over-voting and ordered a rerun. But since a return had been made, I doubt if Section 52 (3) can avail Senator Adeleke in this very instance. I, therefore, agree with the position of the Tribunal.
On the issue of over-voting, if the Appeal Court agrees with Oyetola and APC, then, it is likely to uphold the decision of the Tribunal nullifying the election and return of Senator Ademola Adeleke as Osun Governor.
And on the issue of certificate forgery, if the Appeal Court also agrees with Oyetola and APC, it is likely to set aside the decision of the Tribunal which specifically said Senator Ademola Adeleke was qualified to run for the July 16 Governorship election even after establishing a forgery case against him.
All said and done, Nigerians wait on the Court of Appeal as it decides the Appeals and Cross Appeal before it this week.
One thing is however clear, the Osun case is a major litmus test for the 2022 Electoral Act and one that has generated a lot of interests across the country and beyond.
Ismail Omipidan, a journalist and a political analyst, writes from Ile Olorisa Compound, Eyindi, Ila Orangun, Osun.
FEATURE
Nigeria @63: Bottlenecks hindering development in educational sector


By Sodiq Adelakun
Nigeria’s educational sector has been grappling with a myriad of challenges, encompassing issues as diverse as sexual harassment, a dearth of educational materials, bribery, and the presence of unskilled teachers.
Despite concerted efforts to enhance educational accessibility, a substantial segment of Nigeria’s populace, particularly those residing in rural areas, continues to endure a dearth of quality education.
According to the World Bank, higher institutions in sub-Saharan African countries like Nigeria face the formidable policy challenge of balancing the need to raise educational quality with increasing social demand for access.
It reads, “The task of funding these institutions will become increasingly difficult in the years ahead; as the youth population continues to grow, each country will have to devise a financing approach to higher education development that enables it to meet the challenge.”
That “financing approach,” stakeholders in the education sector have come to agree, is the collaboration between the town and gown (private partners).
Public-private partnership is considered “an agreement between governments and private partners that may include the operations and financiers, according to which the private partners deliver the service in such matter that the service delivery objectives of government are aligned with the profit objectives of the private partners, and where the effectiveness of the alignment depends on a sufficient transfer of risk to the private partners.”
This predicament is exacerbated by factors such as poverty, cultural barriers, and gender inequality, all of which contribute to the perpetuation of educational disparities and the constriction of opportunities for social and economic advancement.
One of the most significant bottlenecks impeding progress in Nigeria’s educational sector is the glaring insufficiency of funding.
Though Nigeria has at least 50 Federal Government-owned and 60 state government-owned universities, it has not been able to meet the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation’s (UNESCO) standard of 26 per cent budgetary allocation for the funding of education. The highest allocation so far recorded was eight per cent, yet, 60 per cent of that funding for universities goes into recurrent expenditure.
The allocated budget for education falls short of the recommended international standards, resulting in a lack of resources, dilapidated infrastructure, and inadequate teacher training. This financial constraint limits the government’s ability to provide quality education and hampers the overall development of the sector.
In a presentation to the international community on ‘Public-private partnership and sustainable higher education funding: The Nigerian experience,’ Prof. Bashiru Raji, a few years ago, asked the question: “How do Nigerian universities cope with these two key issues?” The answers are not far-fetched.
Despite the government’s efforts to improve access to quality education, there are several bottlenecks hindering the sector’s development.
Decades of neglect and underinvestment have left Nigeria’s educational infrastructure in a dire state. Many schools lack basic amenities such as classrooms, libraries, laboratories, and sanitary facilities. This deficiency not only affects the learning environment but also poses safety risks for students and teachers. Without proper infrastructure, it becomes challenging to deliver quality education and create a conducive atmosphere for learning.
The shortage of qualified teachers is another bottleneck plaguing Nigeria’s educational sector. The country faces a significant deficit in the number of trained teachers, particularly in rural areas. Additionally, the quality of education provided by some teachers is subpar due to inadequate training and professional development opportunities. This lack of qualified educators hampers the delivery of quality education and undermines the sector’s development.
The educational curriculum in Nigeria has been criticised for its outdated content and lack of relevance to the current needs of the society and job market. The curriculum fails to equip students with the necessary skills and knowledge required to thrive in a rapidly evolving world.
As a result, graduates often struggle to find employment or contribute meaningfully to the country’s development. A comprehensive curriculum reform is necessary to align education with the demands of the modern world.
Inequality and Access: Inequality in access to education remains a significant challenge in Nigeria.
Corruption and mismanagement plague Nigeria’s educational sector, further hindering its development. Cases of embezzlement of funds meant for educational projects, fraudulent practices in the admission process, and the sale of examination papers have been reported. These unethical practices undermine the integrity of the system and hinder progress.
Disparities exist between urban and rural areas, as well as among different socioeconomic groups. Many children, particularly girls and those from marginalized communities, face barriers such as poverty, early marriage, and cultural norms that hinder their access to education.
Addressing these inequalities and ensuring equal opportunities for all is crucial for the sector’s development.
Nigeria’s educational sector faces numerous bottlenecks that hinder its development and impede the country’s progress.
These problems have persisted for years, hindering the development and progress of the nation’s education system.
It is high time for the government, educational institutions, and society as a whole to come together and address these pressing concerns with a sense of urgency.
One of the most distressing issues within Nigeria’s educational sector is the prevalence of sexual harassment. This despicable behavior not only violates the rights of students but also creates an unsafe and hostile learning environment.
It is imperative that educational institutions establish strict policies and mechanisms to prevent and address such misconduct.
This includes providing support systems for victims, conducting thorough investigations, and implementing appropriate disciplinary measures against perpetrators.
Additionally, comprehensive awareness campaigns and educational programs should be introduced to foster a culture of respect and gender equality within schools and universities.
Another significant challenge faced by Nigeria’s educational sector is the scarcity of adequate teaching materials. Many schools, particularly in rural areas, lack access to up-to-date textbooks, technology, and other essential resources.
This scarcity severely hampers the quality of education provided to students, hindering their ability to acquire the necessary knowledge and skills for their future.
The government must prioritise investment in the provision of educational materials, ensuring that every student has equal access to quality resources. Partnerships with international organizations and NGOs can also play a vital role in bridging this resource gap.
The pervasive issue of bribery within Nigeria’s educational institutions undermines the integrity of the entire system. Instances of students bribing lecturers for better grades or lecturers demanding bribes for admission are all too common. This corrupt practice erodes the credibility of qualifications and devalues the hard work and talent of deserving students.
To combat this, strict anti-corruption measures must be implemented, including the establishment of transparent and accountable processes for admissions, examinations, and grading.
Additionally, awareness campaigns should be conducted to educate students and lecturers about the detrimental consequences of bribery and the importance of meritocracy.
The shortage of skilled teachers across primary, secondary, and tertiary institutions is a critical challenge that must be urgently addressed. Many educators lack the necessary qualifications, training, and pedagogical skills required to effectively impart knowledge to students.
The government should invest in comprehensive teacher training programs, ensuring that educators are equipped with the latest teaching methodologies and subject knowledge. Attracting and retaining talented teachers should also be a priority, achieved through competitive salaries, professional development opportunities, and a supportive work environment.
By implementing strict policies, investing in resources, and prioritising teacher training, Nigeria can pave the way for a brighter future, where every student has access to a safe, inclusive, and high-quality education. Only through concerted efforts can we ensure that the next generation is equipped with the knowledge and skills necessary to drive Nigeria’s progress and development.
The bottlenecks hindering the development of Nigeria’s educational sector are multifaceted and deeply rooted.
The government, in collaboration with relevant stakeholders, must prioritise these issues and implement comprehensive reforms to overcome these obstacles. Only by addressing these bottlenecks can Nigeria’s educational sector flourish and contribute to the nation’s growth and development.
FEATURE
Can Tinubu administration tame job racketeering in MDAs?


Nigeria has one of the highest unemployment rates in Africa. According to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s unemployment rate stood at 33.3 per cent in the last quarter of 2020 while the rate of unemployment among youths was even higher, 42.5 per cent.
The NBS further says that as at the time the figures were released, under-employment was 22.8 per cent and youth unemployment was 21.0 per cent.
However, KPMG, a multi-national consulting firm, in a release predicted that Nigeria’s unemployment rate will hit 40.6 per cent in 2023.
“Although the National Bureau of Statistics recorded an increase in the national unemployment rate from 23.1per cent in 2018 to 33.3per cent in 2020.
“We estimate that this rate has increased to 37.7per cent in 2022 and will rise further to 40.6 per cent in 2023,” said KPMG in its Global Economy Outlook report for first half of 2023.
Nigeria’s unemployment figure is outrageous compared to that of Ghana which, according to a BBC report, was 13.7 per cent in the 3rd quarter of 2022.
The scarcity of job means that unemployed people can go to any length to secure a job and top officials in Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), take advantage of applicants, exploiting them both financially and morally.
In some instances, job seekers are allegedly offered phantom jobs, enrolled into and collect salaries from the centralised Federal Government salary payment platform, Integrated Payroll Personnel Information System (IPPIS).
Worried by this situation, the House of Representatives set up an Ad hoc Committee to investigate job racketeering in MDAs and so far reports from the committee’s sittings have been mind-boggling.
In one of the sessions of the committee witnesses Abdulmalik Ahmed and Ali Yaro shared their experiences of being swindled by individuals posing as intermediaries for an agency.
The two witnesses on Aug. 8 presented themselves before the committee which is also probing the mismanagement of IPPS by those in charge of its operations.
They testified how a former staff of the Federal Character Commission (FCC), Mr Haruna Kolo, who doubles as the IPPIS desk officer and ex-protocol person to the Commission’s chairman, Mrs Farida Dankaka, swindled unsuspecting job seekers,
He was alleged to have acted as a proxy to the chairman.
Kolo, now a staff of Asset Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON), in his submission before the committee said his movement to AMCON was facilitated by Dankaka along with three others, which he said included the FCC chairman’s 51 year old sister.
He alleged that the chairman’s sister was rejected at AMCON on account of her age, which according to him.
He claimed Dankaka blamed him for not doing enough to convince AMCON management to accept her.
On his part, Ahmed, an indigene of Adamawa, and the only graduate from the family of 21 said he was ready to part with any amount to secure a job in any Federal Government when presented with the opportunity.
He said the driver to the Federal Commissioner, representing Taraba took him to Kolo, the protocol officer to the chairman of the commission into whose account he paid N1 million for the purpose of giving him a job in the commission.
Yaro, also from Adamawa paid even higher, paying N2 million into Kolo’s account in a bid to secure the federal government job.
“I graduated 11 years ago without a job. I had the privilege of joining the dreaded Boko Haram but I wanted to be a good citizen. So, I thought it was better to pay the N2 million to secure a job than offering myself as a tool for Boko Haram,” he told the committee.
Rep. Yusuf Gagdi, the Chairman of the committee said no stone would be left unturned to get justice for the victim.
A visibly angry Gagdi said it was unfortunate that one of the heads of an MDA, after obtaining waiver for recruitment, resorted to a secret recruitment.
Gagdi said MDAs use waiver to bypass recruitment guidelines, sell jobs to the highest bidders, and engage in fraudulent activities, adding that they perpetrate job racketeering, which undermine the principles of fairness and transparency in recruitment processes.
He described the act as a deliberate effort to engage cronies and sell the slots to willing graduates, while some of highly placed official move their children from one MDAs to the other depending on how ‘lucrative’ the MDA is.
Some of the MDAs considered as lucrative includes: the Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigeria National Petroleum Company Ltd., Nigeria Communication Commission.
Meanwhile, at the investigative hearing, one of the FCC Commissioners representing Delta State , Mr Moses Anaughe’s accused the chairman of the commission of moving her children from NCC to Downstream Regulatory Commission, a subsiduary of NNPC where the pay is higher.
She did not deny the allegation.
Some FCC Commissioners such as those from Lagos, Delta, Osun, Rivers, Enugu even Dankaka’s state, Kwara, among others are up in arms against her, accusing her of selling job slots in dollars using Kolo and her sister as the receiving agents.
Account details where job seekers paid into were provided to the committee with names and beneficiaries, but Dankaka denied any wrong doing.
Swearing with the Holy Quran she said she had discharged her duties to the best of her abilities and never collected money from any applicant personally or through any proxy.
Pundits are of the opinion that if these allegations from the Ad hoc committee settings are true, the President Bola Tinubu administration has a lot to do to clean up the civil service.
They also urge that similar probes be extended to other MDAs in order to determine the extent of the rot and bring culprits to book.
FEATURE
Responding to the Niger Coup: Lessons in diplomacy for Nigeria and ECOWAS


On the 26th of July 2023, the world was confronted with yet another distressing piece of news: the successful military coup in Africa’s Niger, marking the fourth such incident in a span of just two years, following similar events in Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso.
The Nigerien presidential guard took action by removing President Mohamed Bazoum from power, closing borders, and blocking entrances to government ministries.
Subsequently, in full alignment with the coup orchestrators, the nation’s armed forces rallied behind the coup leaders, with General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the head of Niger’s presidential guard, declaring himself as the head of state after seizing control.
Amidst this turmoil, an emergency meeting was convened in Abuja, Nigeria, on the 30th of July, where the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) called for the “immediate release and reinstatement” of Niger’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, who had been held by the military since the 19th of July.
In response, the regional bloc issued a one-week ultimatum to the regime, stressing their willingness to employ any necessary measures — including the use of military force — to restore constitutional order. However, the military junta disregarded these warnings and remained unresponsive to another ultimatum issued by ECOWAS on the 10th of August.
Embedded within ECOWAS’s objectives is the preservation of peace and stability in the West African region through conflict prevention, resolution, and peacekeeping initiatives. Nigeria, guided by its foreign policy principle of African Centrality, assumes leadership roles in regional bodies such as the African Union and ECOWAS, currently chaired by Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
While adhering to a policy of non-alignment in global power struggles, Nigeria actively engages in diplomatic efforts to address conflicts both within Africa and on the global stage. Over the years, the country has played a mediating role in various conflicts, including those in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Sudan.
In analyzing potential strategies to address the Niger crisis, it becomes crucial to assess what aligns with Nigeria’s national interests and contributes to the overall security and stability of West Africa. From this vantage point, three primary considerations emerge to guide Nigeria’s response to the constitutional and leadership crisis in Niger Republic.
The border between Niger and Nigeria stretches over 1,600 kilometers, spanning the Nigerian states of Yobe, Jigawa, Kebbi, Katsina, and Sokoto, regions that have grappled with insecurity for over a decade. Notably, Niger plays an essential role as a security partner to Nigeria within initiatives like the G5 and the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), a regional military operation targeting terrorist insurgents in the Lake Chad Basin. Moreover, Niger hosts Sector 4 of the Force in the Diffa Presence. The presence of Nigerien troops in the MNJTF is pivotal to containing the insurgency and has significantly contributed to the military successes in Nigeria’s North East region. Taking these factors into account, any hostile action against the coup regime could prompt a withdrawal from the MNJTF, unraveling a critical component of the coalition against insurgents and jeopardizing counterinsurgency gains. Additionally, the Nigerien regime might allow ISWAP to use its territory as a base for regrouping and launching attacks on Nigeria, resulting in both humanitarian and military crises.
Presently, over 300,000 Nigerian refugees have sought shelter in Niger, primarily fleeing conflict and armed group activities in Nigeria’s North-East and North-West regions. Furthermore, over a million Nigerians reside in Niger, constituting 73 per cent of the refugee population. Ethnically driven concerns also factor into addressing the Niger crisis, as the ousted President Bazoum is the first Diffa Arab to lead Niger. These Arabs, residing mainly in the Diffa Region of eastern Niger, have a history of tense interactions with other groups, particularly the Fulani, marked by disputes over pastoral resources and clashes with the Nigerien government.
Niger and Northern Nigeria share a longstanding sociocultural, familial, and economic connection. Many households along the 1,600 km border boast a binational heritage due to strong ancestral links. This connection was notably highlighted in December 2022 when former President Muhammadu Buhari, former Governor Badaru Abubakar of Jigawa State, and Mohammed Matawalle of Zamfara State, alongside businessmen Aliko Dangote and Abdulsamad Rabi’u, received Niger’s national honors. Yet, a protracted conflict with Niger could potentially strain social cohesion in Northern Nigeria. A portrayal of ECOWAS intervention as a military assault by the Nigerian president against a population with shared cultural ties might ignite tensions. In the event of hostilities, the safety of Nigerian nationals and the numerous refugees would be at severe risk.
Plans for the orderly return of refugees depend on bilateral agreements with the Nigerien government, but a hostile regime could lead to expulsion, causing a catastrophic humanitarian and security crisis in both North-West and North-East Nigeria.
Nigeria’s military resources would be heavily strained by any extensive ECOWAS military intervention in Niger, as it possesses the most formidable armed forces in West Africa. Besides external peacekeeping, the Nigerian military is currently engaged in internal security operations across 32 of the federation’s 36 states, simultaneously confronting insurgencies in the North East, North-West, and South-East. Any commitment on the scale required for a viable military operation would weaken the internal security structure, making it susceptible to exploitation by hostile non-state actors. Consequently, the outcome of military intervention would leave Nigeria less secure.
Though envisaged as a swift operation to reinstate civilian leadership, the reality could manifest as a prolonged conflict featuring both conventional and irregular combat. Unlike situations in Sierra Leone and Gambia, where restoring ousted civilian governments was relatively smooth for the Nigerian military, Niger presents a distinct challenge due to its geopolitical and geoeconomic significance. Occupying a larger territory with well-tested armed forces, Niger’s role in the Lake Chad Basin’s defense and security framework amplifies the stakes.
A Nigerian-led intervention would inadvertently perpetuate stereotypes in Francophone states. This narrative could embolden the Nigerien regime to mobilize its forces and population against the intervention forces. Instead of being perceived as liberators, Nigerian troops might be viewed as an occupying force, intensifying the conflict and risking civilian casualties. Moreover, the substantial Nigerian population in Niger would be vulnerable. Anti-Nigerian sentiment could surge in Francophone nations, impacting Nigerian nationals, businesses, and investments not only in Niger but also across other Francophone African countries.
While recommending that ECOWAS adopt a diplomatic approach to resolving the Niger crisis, it is equally vital for the regional body to resist the introduction of foreign military forces. Foreign intervention could lead to an aftermath of anarchy and enduring instability. History has demonstrated that while military interventions might achieve regime change relatively easily, managing the post-change phase is far more complex.
The instances of Iraq and Libya underscore this point, with interventions causing immense human suffering and regional instability due to a lack of consideration for post-conflict stabilization. The NATO intervention in Libya, for instance, triggered instability and weapon proliferation across the African continent, birthing groups like Al-Qaeda, Islamic State affiliates, and Boko Haram that continue to wreak havoc.
The perception of Nigeria as an Anglophone giant with hegemonic intentions in the Francophone West African imagination has fueled distrust and suspicion in Nigeria’s relations with Francophone ECOWAS member states. While ECOWAS plays a vital role in resolving the Niger crisis, it must acknowledge the existing mistrust among member states. Recent years have seen the rise of military regimes in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso, forming a distinct bloc within ECOWAS. These regimes, driven by anti-French sentiments and populist ideals, have resisted ECOWAS sanctions, fostering a sense of solidarity. The emergence of the new Niamey regime further bolsters the “anti-French” bloc.
An ECOWAS military intervention in Niger would likely garner support from other military-led countries, aligning them with the Niamey regime. Mali and Burkina Faso have openly declared their intent to support Niger militarily against any attack on the regime. They have rejected ECOWAS sanctions on Niger, potentially leading to a division within the West African Union.
Given these complexities, it remains in Nigeria’s best interest to ensure stability in Niger. A stable Niger serves as a buffer against the chaos emanating from Libya. Hastily pursuing military action against the new regime could destabilize Niger and the broader Sahel region, potentially reigniting the Tuareg insurgency. This instability would empower Sahel armed groups, accelerating their southward movement towards coastal West Africa. For Nigeria, a chaotic Niger could trigger refugee influxes into the already fragile regions of its southern neighbor, sparking humanitarian and security crises.
©DR ZAINAB SULEIMAN
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