Osun and the forthcoming gubernatorial election: Where the pendulum is likely to swing

By Saka Folarin Lawal

Osun State is once again at a defining political moment. On Saturday, August 8, the state is scheduled to conduct its gubernatorial election, and the journey toward that decisive day has already begun in earnest.

One of the critical early stages of the process is the selection of candidates to represent the various political parties. All major parties have now fielded their flag bearers, signalling full preparedness for the contest ahead. Political activities have shifted into high gear, with parties fine-tuning strategies and assessing their chances. Central to this calculation are opinion polls and public sentiments, which offer clues as to where the political pendulum may swing.

The Osun governorship election forms part of Nigeria’s off-season elections, conducted in line with constitutional provisions for four-year tenures. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has confirmed that party primaries were held in late 2025, with nomination portals closing in early 2026. Public campaigns are expected to commence in March and run until shortly before election day.

The race is shaping up to be keenly contested. The incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, emerged as the candidate of the Accord Party following his exit from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The All Progressives Congress (APC), through a consensus arrangement, selected Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) as its candidate—a development that received public endorsement from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Meanwhile, the PDP chose Adebayo Olugbenga Adedamola as its governorship candidate after Governor Adeleke’s departure from the party.

Smaller parties are also participating in the race. The African Action Congress (AAC) nominated Olajide Esan, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) fielded Alhaji Najeem Sallam, a former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly.

Insights from opinion polls—conducted with efforts at objectivity—suggest mixed sentiments among the electorate. Some schools of thought argue that the ruling administration could have secured broader public approval, especially considering the substantial allocations received from the Federal Government—figures unprecedented in the state’s history. Critics, however, contend that visible development in Osun does not reflect these inflows. Expectations were also high that federal relief packages extended to states would translate into tangible benefits for Osun residents, yet many believe this has not been adequately felt.

On the other hand, Osun is traditionally regarded as a civil-service-dominated state. Supporters of the current administration point to recent salary increments resulting from the Federal Government’s new wage structure, arguing that this has strengthened workers’ solidarity with the ruling party. This factor is widely seen as a significant advantage.

Conversely, allegations of nepotism and favouritism have been raised against the government. Critics claim that key government positions and parastatals are disproportionately occupied by individuals from Ede, the governor’s hometown, leading to the unflattering label of a “Government of Edeism.” According to this view, development projects are perceived to be more concentrated in Ede than in other parts of the state, raising concerns about equity and fairness.

There are also claims that governance in the state has taken on a family-centred character. Some observers allege that the governor does not exercise full personal control over state affairs, with family members exerting undue influence. This perception has fueled public debate over transparency and accountability in governance.

The APC candidate has also been subjected to scrutiny in public discourse. A major concern, particularly among workers, is the lingering fear of a return to the half-salary regime previously associated with past progressive administrations—a policy that the current government claims to have corrected. This anxiety was evident during the recent local government crisis, when workers reportedly stayed away from work, officially citing security concerns, but which some interpreted as a form of political solidarity.

Supporters of the APC counter these concerns by highlighting the physical transformation of the state capital under previous progressive governments. They also argue that their candidate represents a fresh opportunity, with many voters willing to “try a new hand,” believing that lessons have been learned from past mistakes.

As for candidates from smaller parties, analysts agree that their impact will largely depend on the extent of their grassroots mobilisation and the breadth of their support base.

Ultimately, Osun politics has always been characterised by intense competition and strong grassroots participation. This election is particularly significant, coming in the wake of Governor Adeleke’s defection from the PDP to the Accord Party—a move that has disrupted traditional party alignments. While the ruling party seeks to consolidate its hold, the APC is clearly positioning itself for a comprehensive comeback.

As the campaign season unfolds, the electorate will determine which narrative resonates most and where the pendulum will finally swing.