OPEC+ supply boost fuels fears of further oil price slide

Crude oil prices face renewed downward pressure as OPEC+ moves to ramp up production, pushing more barrels into a market already weighed down by sluggish demand.

Industry leaders at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) on Tuesday cautioned that the combination of rising supply and mounting global economic headwinds signals a bleak outlook for the rest of 2025 and into 2026.

Emma Mazhari, chief executive of oil trading at Maersk, said the risk for prices is “very much to the downside” after OPEC+ confirmed that production hikes will begin in October.

The producer alliance, which accounts for nearly half of global output, started reversing its deep supply cuts in April. The move has been largely driven by Saudi Arabia’s efforts to enforce stricter discipline on members that have previously exceeded their quotas, including Kazakhstan.

Although much of the initial additional supply has been absorbed domestically, particularly for power generation, analysts believe it is only a matter of time before global markets feel the impact.

Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura, predicted that the barrels “will inevitably reach the global market over the next 12 months,” adding that Saudi Aramco has already begun slashing official selling prices in a bid to secure market share.

Market watchers, however, remain more alarmed by weak demand. Executives at APPEC pointed to slowing global growth and the dampening effect of U.S. tariffs on trade and fuel consumption as major drags on the market.

“The macro risks are very much to the downside, not just in the U.S., but potentially spilling over elsewhere,” Rahim warned.

The concerns come at a time when crude markets are already strained. Brent crude traded at about $66 a barrel on Tuesday, down sharply from around $75 earlier in the year.

Traders now expect that unless demand sees an unexpected rebound, the combination of heavier OPEC+ supply and faltering global growth will keep prices under pressure, with the possibility of steeper declines stretching into 2025.