OPEC+ okays 137,000bpd output boost after Saudi Russia deal

By Olakunle Oke

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have agreed to a modest oil output increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, following a compromise between Saudi Arabia and Russia after weeks of internal disagreement.

OPEC+ announced the decision in a statement on Sunday, describing it as a measured step to balance market stability with the need to regain market share amid weakening global oil prices.

Ahead of the meeting, Russia had pushed for a smaller output rise to protect prices, while Saudi Arabia sought a larger increase to expand its market presence. The agreed figure represents a middle ground between both positions.

Oil prices hovered near a four-month low on Friday, reflecting market softness as the alliance cautiously restores production. OPEC+ has now returned about 1.65 million barrels per day of previously halted supply to the market.

Industry analysts say the group faces a delicate balancing act, with rising unsold Middle Eastern cargoes and forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggesting oil inventories may expand this quarter and reach a record surplus by 2026 as production from the Americas grows.

Saudi Arabia, which carried the largest share of earlier output cuts, has been keen to ramp up production to recover lost ground, while the new decision comes just ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s scheduled visit to Washington for talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has consistently called for lower oil prices.

However, analysts note that the series of gradual hikes exposes the alliance’s limited spare capacity, as only about 60% of the planned 2.2 million barrels per day increase between May and September has been realized, with several members already operating near maximum output levels.