NUPRC refutes N8.4trn loss to crude theft

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has refuted reports that Nigeria has lost ₦8.41 trillion to oil theft, labeling the claims as misleading.

In a statement signed by its Head of Media, Eniola Akinkuotu, the commission clarified that the figures were a misinterpretation of official data published as part of its transparency efforts under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.

NUPRC confirmed that crude oil losses from theft have dropped by over 90% in the past four years.The daily loss rate, which stood at 102,900 barrels per day in 2021, has now fallen to just 9,600 barrels per day.

This significant improvement was first reported by the NUPRC on September 11, 2025, and has been corroborated by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which linked higher crude output to Nigeria's recent 4.23% GDP growth.

The regulator credited this success to a collaborative effort involving the Office of the National Security Adviser, security agencies, and oil operators.

These joint initiatives, which include both kinetic and non-kinetic interventions, have been instrumental in curbing criminal activities.

The Commission also criticized the methodology used to calculate the inflated theft figures, specifically the retroactive application of a ₦1,500/$1 exchange rate.

NUPRC explained that during the period in question, the Naira's exchange rate was significantly lower, trading below ₦430/$1 and averaging less than ₦600/$1 up to mid-2023.

The agency stated that this flawed approach demonstrated a lack of understanding of oil industry operations and economic mechanisms.

With ongoing reforms like Project 1 Million Barrels, metering audits, and the restoration of shut-in strings, NUPRC believes Nigeria is now well-positioned to consistently meet its OPEC production quota.

The Commission added that Nigeria possesses the technical capacity to produce over two million barrels per day and is actively working with stakeholders to unlock this potential.