Nigeria’s trade surplus doubles YoY to ₦12.6trn in Q2 2026

Nigeria’s external trade position experienced a significant boost in the second quarter of 2026, with total merchandise trade expanding by 19% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year to reach ₦41.4trn, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

This growth was primarily propelled by a surge in exports, which climbed 28% from the previous quarter and 19% year-on-year to ₦27.0trn.

Conversely, import trade grew at a much slower pace of 6% quarter-on-quarter, while dropping 13% year-on-year to ₦14.4trn.

As a result of robust export revenues coupled with restrained import demand, Nigeria’s trade surplus widened dramatically, surging by 67% quarter-on-quarter and 101% year-on-year to hit ₦12.6trn, maintaining a consecutive streak of trade surpluses that began in late 2022.

A notable structural shift underpinned this performance: non-crude oil exports outperformed traditional crude, rising 42% quarter-on-quarter and 31% year-on-year to ₦14.1trn, thereby overtaking crude oil as the largest contributor to export growth.

While crude oil exports still accounted for 48% of total exports at ₦12.9trn, its share has steadily declined from a peak of roughly 82.5% in late 2023, reflecting a broadening export base driven by increased domestic refining and non-oil sectors.

On the import side, the overall decline was largely steered by a steep contraction in fuel and lubricant imports, which plummeted to ₦1.8trn down from ₦5.6trn a year prior.

Primary fuel imports fell by 52% to ₦1.6trn, and processed fuel imports dropped 75% to ₦979.2bn, illustrating the tangible impact of expanded domestic refining capacity in satisfying local fuel consumption and scaling down costly petroleum imports.

Analysts expect Nigeria’s trade surplus to remain resilient moving forward, sustained by expanding non-crude export revenues and disciplined import growth.