Nigeria’s GDP rises to 3.98% in Q3 2025 as agriculture, non-oil sectors drive growth

By Seun Ibiyemi

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 3.98 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, marking a slight improvement over the 3.86 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024.

The latest figures were released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), highlighting broad-based growth across key productive sectors and a continued strengthening of the non-oil economy.

In its Q3 2025 GDP report, the NBS noted that the economy benefited from improved agricultural activity, higher industrial output, and steady expansion in services. This performance reflects a gradual stabilisation of business conditions and the impact of ongoing reforms across critical sectors.

The agriculture sector grew by 3.79 per cent in real terms, a notable improvement from the 2.55 per cent posted in Q3 2024. The sector’s performance was fuelled largely by higher crop production, which remains the dominant contributor to agricultural GDP.

The industrial sector also recorded stronger output, expanding by 3.77 per cent compared to 2.78 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Improved activity in manufacturing, construction, and utilities contributed to the higher industrial performance.

Although the services sector posted a slower expansion of 4.15 per cent down from 4.97 per cent in the same quarter of the previous year it remained the single largest contributor to the economy. Services accounted for 53.02 per cent of total GDP, slightly higher than the 52.93 per cent recorded in Q3 2024, reaffirming the sector’s central role in Nigeria’s economic structure.

In nominal terms, Nigeria’s output rose sharply to ₦113.59 trillion, up from ₦96.16 trillion a year earlier. This represents a strong 18.12 per cent year-on-year expansion, driven by higher prices and increased sectoral activity.

Nigeria’s oil sector recorded a mixed performance in Q3 2025.

According to the NBS, the country produced an average of 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd) during the period. While this was an improvement from the 1.47 mbpd recorded a year earlier, it was slightly lower than the 1.68 mbpd reported in Q2 2025.

Real growth in the oil sector stood at 5.84 per cent, marginally higher than the 5.66 per cent in Q3 2024. However, the report noted a sharp moderation in quarter-on-quarter performance. Oil sector growth dropped significantly from 20.46 per cent in Q2 2025, a decline of 14.62 percentage points reflecting supply constraints and output volatility.

The sector also contracted by 5.53 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

Oil’s contribution to real GDP rose to 3.44 per cent, up from 3.38 per cent in Q3 2024, but lower than the 4.05 per cent recorded in the previous quarter, highlighting the growing dominance of non-oil economic activity.

The non-oil sector, which continues to anchor economic growth, expanded by 3.91 per cent in real terms. This surpassed both the 3.79 per cent growth recorded in Q3 2024 and the 3.64 per cent posted in Q2 2025. Growth was driven by robust performances in telecommunications, financial services, real estate, trade, construction, agriculture, and manufacturing.

These sectors collectively accounted for 96.56 per cent of real GDP, slightly lower than 96.62 per cent in Q3 2024 but higher than 95.95 per cent in Q2 2025.

Despite the overall expansion, the NBS reported a significant nominal contraction of 41.08 per cent in the Mining and Quarrying sector. The agricultural sector also slowed in nominal terms, growing by just 3.18 per cent, though this still represented an improvement of 1.34 percentage points compared to Q2 2025. Crop production remained the most substantial component, contributing 65.99 per cent to agriculture’s total nominal value.
Manufacturing GDP grew by 1.25 per cent, slightly higher than the growth rate recorded in Q3 2024. However, this represented a marginal decline of 0.34 percentage points from Q2 2025.