Nigeria’s crude oil export earnings decline to $31.54bn in 2025

Data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria's Balance of Payments report for 2025 has revealed that Nigeria generated $31.54 billion from crude oil exports over the year.

This figure indicates a 14.41% decline from the $36.85 billion recorded in 2024, emphasizing the continued dominance of oil in external earnings alongside weaker oil receipts despite emerging shifts in the country's export structure.

The drop in crude oil earnings corresponded with a lower current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025, down from $19.03 billion in the preceding year.

The Central Bank of Nigeria directly attributed this moderation to reduced proceeds from crude oil exports.

Despite the drop in earnings, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported that total crude oil production actually increased to 530.41 million barrels in 2025, up from 408.68 million barrels in 2024.

However, the overall output still fell short of expectations; the combined production of 599.64 million barrels of crude oil and condensate missed the budget target of 766.5 million barrels, resulting in a shortfall of 166.86 million barrels.

Nigeria failed to meet its OPEC quota for nine months of the year, which, combined with operational disruptions and outages, restricted the country's ability to fully optimize oil revenues.

On a positive note, Nigeria's overall oil and gas export segment saw modest growth, with total exports of crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum products rising to $48.17 billion in 2025 from $45.51 billion in 2024.

This growth was heavily driven by gas export earnings, which jumped by 21.36% to $10.51 billion, and the emergence of refined petroleum exports standing at $6.13 billion.

The introduction of value-added petroleum products into the export mix is largely linked to the operations of the Dangote Refinery, though crude oil's decline continued to weigh heavily on total external earnings.

The external sector faced persistent pressures as non-oil imports rose by 13.60% to $29.24 billion, and net outflows in both the services and primary income accounts significantly widened.

While the goods account posted a resilient surplus of $14.51 billion, supported by a drop in fuel imports to $10.00 billion, the overall balance of payments surplus declined to $4.23 billion. Despite these structural challenges, external reserves saw an improvement, rising to $45.75 billion.