Nigeria can achieve $1trn economy through strategic gas investment — Former Minister

Former Minister of Power, Professor Barth Nnaji, has said that Nigeria has the potential to attain a $1 trillion economy if it makes targeted, strategic investments in its energy sector—particularly in natural gas.

He made this assertion on Thursday during the 2025 edition of The Bullion Lecture, organised by the Centre for Financial Journalism in Lagos.

Themed “Architecting the Energy Sector for Nigeria’s $1 Trillion Economy Vision”, the lecture brought together key voices in the country’s energy and finance sectors.

Nnaji, who also serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Geometric Power Group, stressed that increasing investment in natural gas would significantly accelerate the development of thermal power plants—an essential move if Nigeria hopes to meet its economic aspirations.

He urged the federal government to restore the previously suspended Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), describing them as a cornerstone for attracting serious investment into the energy sector.

“Right now, Nigeria produces roughly 5,500 megawatts,” Nnaji explained. “But under the Nigeria Electricity Supply Industry’s Vision 30:30:30, we’re supposed to be generating 30,000 megawatts by 2030—with 30 per cent of that coming from renewable sources.”

Looking beyond current targets, he proposed an even more ambitious goal: 100,000 megawatts by 2040, which he said would position Nigeria as an upper middle-income economy.

However, he expressed scepticism about the feasibility of reaching either benchmark unless urgent steps are taken. He attributed this concern in part to the discontinuation of the federal guarantee instrument for PPAs under the previous administration led by President Muhammadu Buhari.

“This policy shift needs to be reversed,” he said, “or we risk falling short of both our near- and long-term energy goals.”

Nnaji also pointed out the irony of Nigeria’s situation: despite being ranked as the ninth-largest holder of natural gas reserves globally—with 209.26 trillion cubic feet—the country continues to struggle with fuelling its 24 gas-fired power plants. Over 80 million Nigerians still lack access to electricity.

In comparison, he referenced Algeria, which possesses a much smaller gas reserve of 2.9 trillion cubic feet. Despite this, Algeria has successfully electrified the entire country and established strong educational institutions, including a globally recognised technical university.

“Algeria now has one of the top three economies in Africa, while Nigeria trails just behind at fourth,” he said.

To address this gap, Nnaji urged the Nigerian government to adopt bold and innovative approaches for harnessing the country’s massive gas reserves.

“Natural gas is significantly cleaner than coal or oil,” he noted. “While it can bring in foreign exchange—especially through initiatives like building pipelines to transport gas to Europe via North Africa—we must first address our own domestic needs. As the saying goes, charity begins at home.”

He cautioned against allowing international narratives to prematurely label natural gas as an obsolete fossil fuel. Instead, he described it as a critical “bridge fuel” that can support Nigeria’s transition to a more sustainable energy future.

“We must stop being a nation that imports what we already have the resources and talent to produce,” he said. “Our people are brilliant and capable—if given the right opportunities, they will carry us toward energy sustainability and economic transformation.”

Echoing Nnaji’s sentiment, Mrs Tolulope Longe, National President of Women in Energy Oil and Gas, called for a homegrown approach to energy transition—one that aligns with Nigeria’s unique socio-economic realities rather than simply replicating foreign models.

She underlined the importance of overhauling the country’s energy infrastructure and called for a coherent policy environment.

“It’s time to spark a gas revolution in Nigeria,” Longe said. “Policy direction must be clear and harmonised, and we must work to rebuild investor trust.”

She further stressed that bureaucratic inefficiencies should not be allowed to stall the country’s journey toward a trillion-dollar economy, and that women and young people remain the driving force behind that vision.

Dr Ogho Okiti, CEO of ThinkBusiness Africa, also weighed in, urging that priority be given to boosting power generation and improving distribution networks.

In his remarks, Mr Ernest Ebi, Chairman of the Centre for Financial Journalism, noted that The Bullion Lecture has consistently served as a platform for unpacking critical national and global challenges.

He recalled that the 2019 edition of the lecture had inspired Nigeria to move forward on signing key agreements aimed at removing barriers to data trade and fostering digital integration—particularly following in-depth discussions on Nigeria’s strategic relationships with China and the United States.