New US tariff unlikely to have impact on Nigerian economy — CPPE

By Taiwo Scholarstica

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said the newly imposed 12.5 per cent tariff by the United States on imports from Nigeria is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s economy.

The policy think-thank made the assessment in a policy brief signed by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, on Sunday, following the decision of the United States Government to impose the tariff on imports from Nigeria and about 60 other trading partners.

According to CPPE, the latest tariff regime represents a continuation of the reciprocal tariff policy of the Trump administration, although it is being implemented under a different legal framework.

The centre said the new measures appeared to have been restructured under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act following the judicial invalidation of the earlier reciprocal tariffs, with allegations concerning forced labour providing the statutory basis for the latest action.

It, however, noted that the policy objective remained largely unchanged, as the United States seeks to protect domestic industries, improve the competitiveness of American manufacturers and promote its wider trade and economic interests.

Despite the development, CPPE said Nigeria’s exposure to the new tariffs remained relatively low, largely because the country’s exports to the United States are dominated by crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products.

The centre said these products account for more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the U.S. and have been excluded from the tariff measures.

“From Nigeria’s perspective, however, the economic impact of the tariffs is unlikely to be significant,” the policy brief stated.

CPPE also pointed out that the United States is not Nigeria’s biggest export destination, further limiting the potential effect of the new tariff regime on the country’s overall export performance.

According to Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics cited by the centre, the country recorded total exports of approximately ₦21.6 trillion during the period, with shipments to the United States accounting for 5.56 per cent.

India accounted for 13.09 per cent of Nigeria’s exports, followed by France with 9.29 per cent, the Netherlands with 9.22 per cent and Spain with 7.68 per cent. The U.S. therefore ranked as Nigeria’s fifth-largest export destination during the quarter.

The centre acknowledged that some non-oil exporters, particularly businesses in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, could face weaker competitiveness in the American market as a result of the tariffs.

However, it maintained that the overall effect on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange inflows and broader economic performance would likely remain modest.

CPPE warned that the bigger concern for Nigeria was the changing nature of global trade, marked by increasing protectionism and the strategic use of trade policies to advance domestic economic interests.

It urged the Federal Government to focus on export diversification, improved manufacturing competitiveness, greater domestic value addition and deeper regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

The centre also called for stronger labour standards and improved supply chain transparency, while encouraging the government to engage the U.S. through diplomatic and trade channels to clarify the implementation of the measures and protect affected Nigerian exporters.

CPPE concluded that although the tariff announcement had raised concerns, its immediate economic impact on Nigeria should not be exaggerated.

“The greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment,” it said.