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Insecurity threatens food security in Kaduna, Katsina, Yobe, others — W’ Bank warns

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…Says food inflation remains a concern for low, middle, high-income nations

By Sodiq Adelakun

The World Bank has projected that seven states in Nigeria’s North-west and North-east regions are on the brink of a food security crisis by 2024.

The states facing this dire situation include Borno, Adamawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Yobe, Sokoto, and Zamfara.

The report attributes the impending crisis to ongoing insecurity and armed conflicts, which have significantly deteriorated living standards in these areas.

The World Bank’s latest Food Security report paints a grim picture, indicating that the persistent unrest in these regions is severely impacting agricultural activities, leading to reduced food production and heightened risk of famine.

The situation is exacerbated by the displacement of communities, which further undermines the ability to cultivate land and secure food supplies.

While the focus is on Nigeria, the report also casts a spotlight on the broader West African region, with countries like Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger also expected to face varying levels of food insecurity.

As international and local authorities grapple with these challenges, the World Bank’s projections underscore the urgent need for concerted efforts to prevent a full-blown food crisis in one of Africa’s most populous nations and its neighbors.

It stated, “It is projected that most areas in West and Central Africa will remain Minimally food insecure (IPC Phase 1) until May 2024, with some being categorized as Stressed IPC 2. Nigeria (far north of Adamawa, Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states) will be at Crisis food security levels (IPC Phase 3), mostly because of persistent insecurity and armed conflict and deteriorating livelihoods.”

It further stated that areas in Northeastern states such Abadam, Bama, Guzamala, Marte etc will experience Emergency food security levels (IPC Phase 4) as a result of limited household food stock and access to market and humanitarian aid.

The report also noted that over 63.2 percent of low-income countries experienced inflation levels surpassing 5 percent, marking a 1.3 percent-point increase compared to the previous food update on January 17, 2023.

In lower-middle-income countries, 73.9 percent saw inflation levels exceeding 5 percent, while 48 percent of upper-middle-income countries maintained similar percentages as the last update, with no changes recorded.

The World Bank noted that in high-income countries, over 44.4 percent reported food inflation levels surpassing 5 percent, marking a 1.9 percent decrease compared to the previous food update.

Additionally, the report revealed that in real terms, food price inflation outpaced overall inflation in 71 percent of the 165 countries where data was available.

The report further highlights the precarious situation many states in Nigeria find themselves as food prices scale the roofs. The latest CPI report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) puts food inflation at over 33 percent.

In October, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) warned that around 5 million Nigerians are at risk of hunger in 2024.

The United Nations (UN) reported in its Africa Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition that since the onset of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, approximately 78 percent of Africans have been unable to afford a nutritious diet.

In July, President Tinubu declared an emergency on food insecurity in the country and moved the item to the National Security Council. However, the move has resulted in little or no impact as food prices continue to surge.

Yesterday, protests broke out in Niger state over rising food prices and hunger across the state.

…Says food inflation remains a concern for low, middle, high-income nations

In a related development, according to the latest Food Security Update report from the World Bank, released on Tuesday, global food prices continue to experience high inflation across low, middle, and high-income countries.

The report reveals that in 63.2 percent of low-income nations, inflation exceeded 5 percent, representing a 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous update in January 2023.

Similarly, 73.9 percent of lower-middle-income countries and 48 percent of upper-middle-income countries also witnessed inflation levels surpassing 5 percent, with no change from the previous update.

In high-income countries, the World Bank observed that 44.4 percent of nations experienced food inflation above 5 percent, indicating a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous update.

Furthermore, the report emphasised that in 71 percent of the 165 countries with available data, food price inflation outpaced overall inflation in real terms.

The World Bank’s Food Security Update also highlighted the impact of recent attacks by Houthi rebels on vessels in the Red Sea.

These assaults have resulted in a 40 percent reduction in trade volumes through the Suez Canal, thereby diminishing global food security, as reported by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

In 2023, food prices, mainly in the agricultural price index, fell by 9 percent due to ample supplies of major crops, except for rice, which declined by 27 percent.

Forecasts indicate further price declines in 2024 and 2025, although risks like energy cost hikes, adverse weather, trade constraints, and geopolitical uncertainty could intervene.

In 2023, the price of food, particularly in the agricultural sector, dropped by 9 percent due to an abundance of major crops, with the exception of rice, which experienced a decline of 27 percent.

Forecasts suggest that food prices will continue to decrease in 2024 and 2025, although there are potential risks such as increased energy costs, adverse weather conditions, trade limitations, and geopolitical uncertainty that could impact these projections.

The World Bank Group has significantly increased its efforts by allocating $45 billion, including $22 billion in new loans and $23 billion from existing portfolios.

These initiatives now cover 90 countries and aim to address both short-term needs, such as expanding social protection, and long-term goals, such as improving productivity and implementing climate-smart agriculture.

The World Bank has stated that its intervention is expected to have a positive impact on 335 million individuals, which is equivalent to 44 percent of the undernourished population. Approximately 53 percent of the beneficiaries are women, who are disproportionately affected by the crisis.

One of the World Bank’s interventions, the West Africa Food Systems Resilience Programme, has a budget of $766 million and aims to enhance preparedness against food insecurity while strengthening the resilience of food systems in the region. Additionally, the bank is preparing to commit an additional $345 million for Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.

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Lagos, India to boost trade partnership

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Confederation of Indian Industry have signed an agreement to boost trade partnership.

In a memorandum of understanding in Lagos on Tuesday, both parties observed that the agreement would enhance avenues for effective collaborations.

Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Deputy President Knut Ulvmoen said that the partnership’s focus was to leverage the trade capacity of both parties.

Ulvmoen said that both parties would explore capacity in Information and Communication Technology, medical, training, agriculture, manufacturing and export, among others.

He acknowledged what he described as robust and enduring trade relations between Nigeria and India.

He noted that over the years, both nations had witnessed a steady growth in bilateral trade with significant contributions from various sectors.

“Today’s meeting serves as a platform to, not only strengthen the existing partnerships, but also to forge new alliances that will contribute to the sustainable growth and development of both nations.

“Together, we must seize this moment to identify synergies, exchange expertise, and explore innovative solutions to economic challenges.

“Let us leverage the collective wisdom of our industries to develop actionable strategies that will drive inclusive growth, foster entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness,” he said.

Indian High Commissioner Shri Balasubramanian expressed his belief in shared growth and prosperity by both countries.

He also emphasised the importance of Nigerian-Indian business collaboration.

Balasubramanian stated that the government of India was making efforts to build capacity in trade, seeking private sectors’ partnership to identify projects that could be profitable to the trade structure of both countries.

“The opportunities existing between both countries are enormous as more than 155 Indian companies in Nigeria employ many Nigerians.

“From oil to steel; to healthcare, we are willing to link Nigerians up with their counterparts in India as we explore avenues of collaboration and partnership,” he said.

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Naira remains at N1,350 as CBN targets FX inflow for liquidity boost

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The naira on Tuesday steadied at 1,350 per US dollar on the parallel market, popularly called black market.

On Monday morning, the naira opened the foreign exchange (FX) market at the same rate before closing at N1,360/$1 on the same day at the black market.

At the official market known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira on Monday fell to 1,419.11 per dollar, the lowest since March 13, 2024 at the official FX market, following slowing inflows occasioned by the withdrawal of funds by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs).

The intraday high closed at N1,451 per dollar on Monday, weaker than N1,410 closed on Friday. The intraday low also depreciated marginally to N1,060 on Monday as against N1,051/$1 closed on Friday at NAFEM, data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange indicated.

Dollars supplied by willing buyers and willing sellers declined by 52.16 percent to $147.83 million on Monday from $309.01 million recorded on Friday.

On day to day trading, the naira weakened by 5.63 percent as the dollar was quoted at N1,419.11 on Monday as against N1,339.23 quoted on Friday at NAFEM.

During the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, emphasised the critical need to attract inflows to maintain liquidity in the foreign exchange market and stabilize the exchange rate.

In his statement, Governor Cardoso highlighted the importance of addressing inflationary pressures through exchange rate management to safeguard both price stability and long-term economic growth.

“Failure to tame inflationary pressure using the exchange rate channel may jeopardise not only price stability but also long-term growth,” stated Governor Cardoso.

Addressing concerns raised at the March 2024 MPC meeting, Governor Cardoso emphasised the need to reduce negative real interest rates to attract capital flows and enhance liquidity in the FX market. He stressed the significance of attracting capital flows through foreign portfolio investments and moderating exchange rate pressures to mitigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, particularly in Nigeria’s import-dependent economy.

Commenting on the monetary situation, Mustapha Akinkunmi highlighted a decline in Nigeria’s reserve money by 24.91 percent to approximately N22.2 trillion by the end of February 2024. Despite this, broad money (M3) supply increased to N93.7 trillion, contributing to inflationary pressures. Nigeria’s external reserves also decreased to US$32.87 billion as of March 19, 2024, from US$33.68 billion in February 2024.

Although current reserves cover imports for 5.7 months of goods only and 4.5 months of goods and services, the country’s ability to repay short-term debts using reserves exceeded the threshold at 104.0 percent, he said.

According to him, the reserves-to-broad money ratio of 33.1 percent surpassed the 20.0 percent threshold, indicating Nigeria’s capacity to manage capital flows effectively.

Governor Cardoso’s emphasis on attracting inflows and managing exchange rate pressures underscores the CBN’s commitment to maintaining stability in the FX market and combating inflationary challenges in Nigeria’s economy.

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Mobile channel most vulnerable, as financial institutions lose N17.67bn to fraudsters in 2023

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Latest report by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) on Annual Fraud Landscape (January to December 2023) has revealed that commercial banks, Point of Sales (PoS) operators and others lost about N17.67 billion to fraudsters in 2023.

The report published on its website on Monday identified mobile channels as the most vulnerable avenue for fraudsters notably Web and POS businesses.

The report noted that fraud perpetrated via mobile channels increased by five percent compared to the previous year.

It also suggested some of the regulations inputted to check fraud in financial institutions need detailed examination, modification and reinforcement.

According to the statistics revealed by the report, fraud count dropped by six percent to 95,620, as actual loss from fraud grew by 23 percent in 2023 when compared to 2022 with the first quarter being the month with the highest fraud volume in 2023 and the fourth quarter being the month with the highest fraud value.

It also disclosed that the month of May recorded the highest fraud count of 11,716, followed by February with 9,492 while October saw the highest actual loss in 2023 at N3.7 billion, followed by January with N2.7 billion. It said the count of Web Fraud decreased by 38 percent and ATM fraud recorded a 64 percent reduction from 2022 to 2023.

Also, in 2023, people aged 40 and above remained the primary targets of fraudsters, which NIBSS said signified a persistent focus on the targeting strategy of fraudsters.

“This sustained trend emphasises the enduring appeal of the demographic group as potential victims, reinforcing the need for continuous efforts to educate and protect individuals in this category from fraudulent activities,” NIBSS said.

In 2023, a total of 80,658 unique customers fell for the gimmicks of fraudsters which is four per cent less than 84,130 customers recorded in the previous year.

“This decline, though apparent, does not diminish the severity of the issue, urging the financial industry to remain vigilant, enhance security measures and collaboratively address the tenacious challenges posed by fraud,” it said.

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