Insecurity threatens food security in Kaduna, Katsina, Yobe, others — W’ Bank warns

…Says food inflation remains a concern for low, middle, high-income nations

By Sodiq Adelakun

The World Bank has projected that seven states in Nigeria’s North-west and North-east regions are on the brink of a food security crisis by 2024.

The states facing this dire situation include Borno, Adamawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Yobe, Sokoto, and Zamfara.

The report attributes the impending crisis to ongoing insecurity and armed conflicts, which have significantly deteriorated living standards in these areas.

The World Bank’s latest Food Security report paints a grim picture, indicating that the persistent unrest in these regions is severely impacting agricultural activities, leading to reduced food production and heightened risk of famine.

The situation is exacerbated by the displacement of communities, which further undermines the ability to cultivate land and secure food supplies.

While the focus is on Nigeria, the report also casts a spotlight on the broader West African region, with countries like Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger also expected to face varying levels of food insecurity.

As international and local authorities grapple with these challenges, the World Bank’s projections underscore the urgent need for concerted efforts to prevent a full-blown food crisis in one of Africa’s most populous nations and its neighbors.

It stated, “It is projected that most areas in West and Central Africa will remain Minimally food insecure (IPC Phase 1) until May 2024, with some being categorized as Stressed IPC 2. Nigeria (far north of Adamawa, Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states) will be at Crisis food security levels (IPC Phase 3), mostly because of persistent insecurity and armed conflict and deteriorating livelihoods.”

It further stated that areas in Northeastern states such Abadam, Bama, Guzamala, Marte etc will experience Emergency food security levels (IPC Phase 4) as a result of limited household food stock and access to market and humanitarian aid.

The report also noted that over 63.2 percent of low-income countries experienced inflation levels surpassing 5 percent, marking a 1.3 percent-point increase compared to the previous food update on January 17, 2023.

In lower-middle-income countries, 73.9 percent saw inflation levels exceeding 5 percent, while 48 percent of upper-middle-income countries maintained similar percentages as the last update, with no changes recorded.

The World Bank noted that in high-income countries, over 44.4 percent reported food inflation levels surpassing 5 percent, marking a 1.9 percent decrease compared to the previous food update.

Additionally, the report revealed that in real terms, food price inflation outpaced overall inflation in 71 percent of the 165 countries where data was available.

The report further highlights the precarious situation many states in Nigeria find themselves as food prices scale the roofs. The latest CPI report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) puts food inflation at over 33 percent.

In October, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) warned that around 5 million Nigerians are at risk of hunger in 2024.

The United Nations (UN) reported in its Africa Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition that since the onset of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, approximately 78 percent of Africans have been unable to afford a nutritious diet.

In July, President Tinubu declared an emergency on food insecurity in the country and moved the item to the National Security Council. However, the move has resulted in little or no impact as food prices continue to surge.

Yesterday, protests broke out in Niger state over rising food prices and hunger across the state.

…Says food inflation remains a concern for low, middle, high-income nations

In a related development, according to the latest Food Security Update report from the World Bank, released on Tuesday, global food prices continue to experience high inflation across low, middle, and high-income countries.

The report reveals that in 63.2 percent of low-income nations, inflation exceeded 5 percent, representing a 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous update in January 2023.

Similarly, 73.9 percent of lower-middle-income countries and 48 percent of upper-middle-income countries also witnessed inflation levels surpassing 5 percent, with no change from the previous update.

In high-income countries, the World Bank observed that 44.4 percent of nations experienced food inflation above 5 percent, indicating a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous update.

Furthermore, the report emphasised that in 71 percent of the 165 countries with available data, food price inflation outpaced overall inflation in real terms.

The World Bank’s Food Security Update also highlighted the impact of recent attacks by Houthi rebels on vessels in the Red Sea.

These assaults have resulted in a 40 percent reduction in trade volumes through the Suez Canal, thereby diminishing global food security, as reported by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

In 2023, food prices, mainly in the agricultural price index, fell by 9 percent due to ample supplies of major crops, except for rice, which declined by 27 percent.

Forecasts indicate further price declines in 2024 and 2025, although risks like energy cost hikes, adverse weather, trade constraints, and geopolitical uncertainty could intervene.

In 2023, the price of food, particularly in the agricultural sector, dropped by 9 percent due to an abundance of major crops, with the exception of rice, which experienced a decline of 27 percent.

Forecasts suggest that food prices will continue to decrease in 2024 and 2025, although there are potential risks such as increased energy costs, adverse weather conditions, trade limitations, and geopolitical uncertainty that could impact these projections.

The World Bank Group has significantly increased its efforts by allocating $45 billion, including $22 billion in new loans and $23 billion from existing portfolios.

These initiatives now cover 90 countries and aim to address both short-term needs, such as expanding social protection, and long-term goals, such as improving productivity and implementing climate-smart agriculture.

The World Bank has stated that its intervention is expected to have a positive impact on 335 million individuals, which is equivalent to 44 percent of the undernourished population. Approximately 53 percent of the beneficiaries are women, who are disproportionately affected by the crisis.

One of the World Bank’s interventions, the West Africa Food Systems Resilience Programme, has a budget of $766 million and aims to enhance preparedness against food insecurity while strengthening the resilience of food systems in the region. Additionally, the bank is preparing to commit an additional $345 million for Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.