Inflation rate eases to 18.02% in September

...as CPPE warns cost-of-living crisis remains acute despite drop

By Seun Ibiyemi

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Wednesday that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased further to 18.02 per cent in September 2025.

The data, released in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Report for September 2025, represents a 2.1 percentage point decrease from the 20.12 per cent recorded in August 2025.

On a Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) basis, the current rate of 18.02 per cent is significantly lower by 14.68 percentage points than the 32.70 per cent recorded in September 2024.

Furthermore, the Month-on-Month (M-o-M) headline inflation rate in September 2025 stood at 0.72 per cent, a marginal decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the 0.74 per cent recorded in August 2025.

This indicates a slightly slower pace in the increase of average price levels compared to the previous month.

The increase in the headline index for September 2025 was primarily attributed to price hikes across certain categories. The three major contributors to the headline inflation year-on-year were Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, accounting for 7.21 per cent of the rise, followed by Restaurants and Accommodation Services at 2.33 per cent, and Transport at 1.92 per cent. Conversely, the smallest contributions came from Recreation, Sport, and Culture (0.06%), Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco, and Narcotics (0.07%), and Insurance and Financial Services (0.08%).

A significant trend was seen in food prices. The food inflation rate in September 2025 was 16.87 per cent Y-o-Y, marking a massive 20.9 percentage point drop compared to the 37.77 per cent recorded in September 2024. The NBS noted that this substantial annual decline is technically due to the recent change in the base year used for the CPI calculation.

Crucially, on an M-o-M basis, food inflation registered a deflationary rate of -1.57 per cent, decreasing by 3.22 per cent compared to the 1.65 per cent recorded in August 2025. This negative reading suggests an overall reduction in the average prices of key staples, including Maize (Corn), Grains, Garri, Beans, Millet, Potatoes, Onions, Eggs, Tomatoes, and Fresh Pepper.

Core inflation (all items excluding volatile agricultural produce and energy) also moderated, standing at 19.53 per cent Y-o-Y. On a Month-on-Month basis, the Core Inflation rate was 1.42 per cent, a minor drop from the 1.43 per cent recorded in August 2025.

Urban and Rural Trends and State Disparities
The report showed that on a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate was 17.50 per cent, significantly lower than the 35.13 per cent recorded in September 2024. The rural inflation rate, at 18.26 per cent Y-o-Y, was also lower than the 30.49 per cent recorded the previous year.

Regionally, the year-on-year all-items inflation rate was highest in Adamawa at 23.69 per cent, followed by Katsina at 23.53 per cent, and Nasarawa at 22.29 per cent. Conversely, the slowest rise in headline inflation was recorded in Anambra at 9.28 per cent, Niger at 11.79 per cent, and Bauchi at 12.36 per cent.

For food inflation on a year-on-year basis, Ekiti led with 28.68 per cent, followed by Rivers and Nasarawa. The slowest food inflation rates were recorded in Bauchi, Niger, and Anambra.

In a swift response, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) acknowledged the moderating trend but issued a stern warning that the cost-of-living crisis persists, especially for low- and middle-income households.

In its Policy Brief, CPPE noted that despite the disinflation, the current inflation level is still high enough to erode household purchasing power, weaken consumer confidence, and strain real incomes.

The Director and CEO of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, stressed that major cost pressures remain acute across critical sectors that constitute nearly 90 per cent of household expenditure: food, transport, energy, housing, education, and healthcare. These pressures are fundamentally driven by structural factors like insecurity in farming areas, high fuel costs, and unreliable infrastructure.

Dr. Yusuf urged the Federal Government to prioritize policies that directly reduce costs for citizens by strengthening security, improving transport corridors, cutting energy costs, and expanding access to affordable finance.

He concluded that while business confidence is improving, consumer confidence remains fragile, and the next phase of reform must focus on welfare and cost-reduction measures to deliver tangible relief and work toward achieving a single-digit inflation rate in the medium term.