Inflation declines by 0.39% in May

….as food, non-alcoholic beverages, transport drive inflation

…CPPE blames geopolitical shocks, insecurity 

Nigeria’s inflation rate has declined by 0.39% in the month of May 2026 according to recent statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

​A statement by the Statistician-General of the Federation, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, showed that year-on-year headline inflationreached 15.93 per cent, representing a slight increase from April’s 15.69 per cent but a massive drop from the 26.06 per cent recorded in May 2025.

​At the divisional level, the primary drivers of headline inflationwere food and non-alcoholic beverages at 6.38 per cent, restaurants and accommodation services at 2.06 per cent, and transport at 1.70 per cent. Conversely, the smallest inflationaryimpacts came from recreation, sports, and culture at 0.05 per cent, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and narcotics at 0.06 per cent, and insurance and financial services at 0.07 per cent.

The statement revealed that core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 16.82 per cent in May 2026 on a year-on-year basis.

Adeniran noted that “in analysing price movements under this section, it should be noted that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns that differ across states and locations.

“Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state, making interstate comparisons of consumption baskets inadvisable and potentially misleading.”

“This can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: fresh onions, maize (corn) grains, melon (egusi), water yam, cassava flour, crayfish, fresh pepper, fresh tomatoes, wheat grain, cassava tuber, yam tuber, sweet potatoes, fresh ginger, plantain, cowpea, among others,” he said.

Reacting, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) attributed Nigeria’s recent inflation trends to a combination of international energy market disruptions and persistent domestic security challenges.

In a policy brief released on Monday in response to the May 2026 inflation report, the economic think-tank noted that headline inflation experienced a marginal year-on-year increase of 0.24 per cent, rising to 15.93 per cent in May from the 15.69 per cent recorded in April.

According to the CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, the upward pressure on domestic prices reflects the continuing impact of recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on global energy markets and supply chains. 

Yusuf explained that a surge in crude oil prices, elevated marine insurance costs, disruptions to shipping routes, and higher import costs have collectively driven up local commodity prices.

Despite the year-on-year uptick, the center highlighted a more encouraging underlying trend, pointing out that headline inflationactually moderated on a month-on-month basis from 2.13 per cent in April to 1.75 per cent in May. 

Similarly, monthly food inflation eased from 3.63 per cent to 2.98 per cent, indicating that while price pressures persist, the speed of escalation is slowing down. 

Yusuf also emphasized that the current rate remains significantly lower than the 26.06 per cent recorded in May 2025, underscoring substantial disinflationary progress over the past year.

The policy brief revealed that the primary drivers of inflationremain concentrated in essential consumer needs, with food and beverages, transportation, housing, energy, health, and education collectively accounting for roughly 87 per cent of headline inflation. 

Food inflation, which stands at 16.96 per cent, continues to outpace the headline index, aggressively weakening household purchasing power across the country.

The CPPE identified persistent insecurity in key agricultural zones as a major structural factor behind the elevated cost of food. 

Yusuf noted that security challenges have displaced farming communities, reduced cultivated land acreage, disrupted agricultural logistics, and driven up transportation costs. 

He argued that lower agricultural output and tighter supplies continue to fuel food inflation, making the resolution of insecurity a critical inflation-management strategy rather than just a security issue.

Addressing potential remedies, the center maintained that Nigeria’s inflation challenge is largely cost-push rather than demand-driven.

The think-thank suggested that the solution lies less in monetary tightening by the central bank and more in addressing the structural drivers of production and distribution costs. 

The brief urged the government to focus interventions on improving food security, strengthening logistics infrastructure, investing in mass transit, enhancing energy security, and restoring safety to rural farming communities.

Looking ahead, the CPPE expressed cautious optimism, citing a recent diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East that has seen crude oil prices moderate from about $90 per barrel to approximately $83 per barrel. 

The center projected that if global tensions continue to ease and supply chains normalize, domestic inflationary pressures could begin a steady decline starting in the third quarter of 2026.