IMPI revises Nigeria’s inflation forecast to 14% by Dec 2025

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has revised its inflation projection for Nigeria, forecasting that headline inflation will drop to 14 per cent by December 2025, down from its previous estimate of 17 per cent.

In its latest policy statement signed by Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, Chairman of IMPI, the think tank said the new projection follows the sustained disinflation recorded over the past six months, with inflation recently falling to 18.02 per cent.

The group had earlier projected a reduction to 17 per cent from the 20.12 per cent recorded in August 2025 — a forecast that closely matched the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

According to Dr Akinsiju, the consistent drop in inflation has positively impacted Nigeria’s poverty outlook.

He explained that high inflation had previously contributed to the World Bank’s estimate of 139 million Nigerians living in poverty, as it eroded purchasing power and restricted access to basic needs such as food and energy.

It reads: “In many particular ways, inflation plays a significant role in the World Bank’s template of increased estimates of poverty in a jurisdiction. “Now, we can safely assert that more Nigerians have been cycled out of poverty, consequent to the ongoing disinflation in the economic space.”

The IMPI noted that Nigeria’s economy has transitioned from a “high inflationary environment” which peaked at 34.8 per cent in December 2024 to a more stable one, reflecting government efforts to create a lower-cost economic environment despite ongoing labour tensions.

“With a new set of data available to us, we can further improve on our Consumer Price Index (CPI) projection to submit that the inflation rate will decline to 14 per cent by December 2025,” the group stated.

IMPI also projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) could reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by at least 150 basis points in its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to stimulate economic activity.

The policy group maintained confidence that continued monetary easing and fiscal discipline would reinforce price stability and support Nigeria’s gradual recovery from last year’s inflationary crisis.