Global fuel shortages to persist beyond Iran war — Bird predicts

Global fuel shortages could persist beyond the ongoing US-Iran conflict as damage to Middle Eastern refineries, high refinery utilisation and efforts to rebuild fuel inventories continue to constrain supplies, the Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Refinery, David Bird, has said.

Bird told Reuters on Tuesday that the global refining system entered the conflict with high utilisation rates, while some refineries in the Middle East had also suffered damage and others had deferred maintenance.

“We went in (to the Iran war) at high refinery utilisation rates,” Bird said, adding that countries were also looking to strengthen their fuel reserves.”

“Plus inventories have to be rebuilt, plus a lot of countries are talking about supply security and increasing stocks,” he said.

The disruption has put Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery in a stronger position as conflicts involving the US and Iran and Russia and Ukraine continue to affect refining capacity and fuel exports.

Dangote Refinery is currently operating at about 700,000 barrels per day, according to Bird.

The refinery recorded an after-tax profit of $1.82 billion in the first half of 2026, compared with a $476 million loss in the previous full year, according to its IPO prospectus.

Bird said the stronger market conditions had also changed the funding outlook for the refinery’s planned expansion.

Dangote plans to increase its refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029 under a $14.3 billion expansion programme.

The expansion will include additional refining and petrochemical units, which the company says will allow it to produce different grades of diesel and increase the substitution of imported petrochemical products.

The group is also planning a second refinery in Kenya.

Meanwhile, Dangote Refinery’s planned initial public offering is expected to raise about ₦2.15 trillion ($1.63 billion). The offer is scheduled to run from September 14 to October 13 and will largely target retail investors.

The latest outlook comes as disruptions in the Middle East continue to keep pressure on global fuel markets, with the impact being felt across gasoline, diesel and other refined petroleum products.