FG sets up committee to harmonise oil, FX, inflation projections

The Federal Government has set up an inter-agency committee to harmonise the economic assumptions used by government agencies for budgeting and planning.

The committee will work on projections for crude oil prices and production, exchange rates, inflation and non-oil revenue after the Economic Management Team (EMT) identified conflicting assumptions among government agencies as one of the factors behind budget under-performance.

The decision was taken at the EMT meeting in Abuja on Monday.

The committee will also address differences in the way key economic indicators are calculated and reported by government agencies to the public and external institutions.

Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, said the move would make government planning more predictable.

“A single, harmonised set of assumptions across the fiscal and monetary authorities means fewer surprises in the budget and more credible planning for investors and all Nigerians,” Edun said.

The EMT also reviewed recent economic data, including the 4.43 per cent year-on-year real GDP growth recorded in the second quarter of 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The government said external reserves had risen above $54 billion in early September, the highest level in nearly 18 years based on Central Bank of Nigeria data.

It also noted that the naira had strengthened to the N1,300s per dollar, while Nigeria is set to return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Index on September 21 after about three years.

The team was also briefed that public debt remains below 40 per cent of GDP and that Moody’s has moved Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to positive.

The EMT approved a revised Terms of Reference that expands its work to include regular reviews of macroeconomic performance, fiscal and monetary coordination, the government’s financing needs and progress on the Renewed Hope Agenda.

The team will now meet monthly, with at least two strategic sector reviews at each meeting.

The Ministry of Finance will also coordinate national economic data, while individual agencies will remain responsible for supplying data for their respective sectors.

The government is also looking to agriculture as part of its plan to grow the economy towards a $1 trillion nominal GDP by 2030.

The EMT reviewed measures to reduce post-harvest losses, expand processing and mechanisation, improve export compliance and ensure capital is released earlier ahead of planting seasons.

It also considered the planned recapitalisation of the Bank of Agriculture and a new credit window for smallholder farmers. The government is targeting an increase in agriculture’s share of private-sector credit to 10 per cent by 2030.

The EMT further reviewed preparations for Nigeria to host the Creative Africa Nexus (CANEX) in November 2026 and the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) in Lagos in November 2027.

The Ministry of Finance was asked to coordinate funding and customs facilitation for the events with the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment.

The government expects the two events to attract exhibitors, international buyers and investors, with IATF also expected to draw African heads of state to Lagos.