CPPE raises alarm, as Petrol imports jump 207% despite domestic refining

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has raised concerns over the sharp increase in petrol imports despite growing domestic refining capacity, warning that indiscriminate import approvals could undermine Nigeria’s emerging refining industry.

CPPE stated that average Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports rose from 5.9 million litres per day in May 2026 to 18.1 million litres per day in June, representing a 206.8 percent increase.

Imports increased further to 19.7 million litres per day in July, accounting for 43.3 percent of total PMS receipts during the month, compared with 12.4 percent in May.

The development has prompted the private-sector policy group to call for greater transparency in the approval of petroleum product imports, particularly as Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has expanded significantly.

In a policy brief issued on Sunday, CPPE said petroleum product imports should be used to address genuine and independently verified supply gaps rather than operate as a parallel supply channel where domestic refiners are capable of meeting demand.

The group argued that continued import approvals without a clear demonstration of a domestic shortfall could weaken refinery utilization, discourage investment, increase foreign exchange demand, and limit the benefits of domestic refining to the Nigerian economy.

CPPE’s position comes against the backdrop of increased activity by local refineries, including the Dangote Refinery, as well as other domestic refining facilities.

The group cited a test run by Dangote Refinery exceeding 700,000 barrels per day in June and NMDPRA data showing an average refinery capacity utilization of 99.12 percent in April as evidence of growing domestic refining capability.

CPPE also pointed to rising seaborne petroleum product exports as further evidence that Nigeria’s overall refining capability is expanding.

However, the organisation stressed that it was not calling for a blanket ban on imports or the protection of inefficient domestic producers.
Instead, it proposed that imports should be approved only after the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) determines and publishes the size of any verified supply gap.

According to CPPE, the regulator should disclose projected demand, verified domestic production and inventories, committed refinery deliveries, product specifications, and logistics constraints before approving significant import volumes.

It also proposed that domestic refiners be given a transparent, time-bound opportunity to supply any identified shortfall, with imports restricted to the residual gap.

The group called for the monthly publication of product-by-product supply and demand data, including refinery output, domestic evacuation, inventories, consumption, exports, landed imports, and stock-sufficiency days.

CPPE said import permits should also be quantified and time-limited, with regulators monitoring the difference between permitted, financed, shipped, and landed volumes to prevent speculative or excessive approvals.

The organisation warned that avoidable petrol imports create additional demand for foreign exchange through product costs, freight, insurance, and other associated expenses.

It also argued that stronger domestic refining would retain more economic value in Nigeria through employment, supplier development, engineering services, transportation, storage, and other related activities.

CPPE said a predictable import regime would also be critical for investment in refining, storage, pipelines, marine logistics, and downstream distribution.

The group nevertheless acknowledged that imports would remain necessary where domestic supply is genuinely inadequate, including during refinery outages, seasonal demand surges, quality gaps, or strategic stock replenishment.

It therefore proposed an emergency-import framework based on objective thresholds such as minimum stock levels, refinery outage periods, or delivery failures.

CPPE also called for stronger coordination between the NMDPRA and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to ensure a reliable crude supply to domestic refineries.

The organisation said Nigeria’s downstream policy should increasingly shift away from managing chronic import dependence toward building a competitive domestic refining ecosystem in which efficient local producers have a fair opportunity to supply the domestic market.

The sharp rise in PMS imports between May and July, it said, makes the transparency of import approvals increasingly vital as Nigeria seeks to balance fuel supply security, consumer protection, competition, and the development of domestic refining capacity.