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Insecurity threatens food security in Kaduna, Katsina, Yobe, others — W’ Bank warns
…Says food inflation remains a concern for low, middle, high-income nations
By Sodiq Adelakun
The World Bank has projected that seven states in Nigeria’s North-west and North-east regions are on the brink of a food security crisis by 2024.
The states facing this dire situation include Borno, Adamawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Yobe, Sokoto, and Zamfara.
The report attributes the impending crisis to ongoing insecurity and armed conflicts, which have significantly deteriorated living standards in these areas.
The World Bank’s latest Food Security report paints a grim picture, indicating that the persistent unrest in these regions is severely impacting agricultural activities, leading to reduced food production and heightened risk of famine.
The situation is exacerbated by the displacement of communities, which further undermines the ability to cultivate land and secure food supplies.
While the focus is on Nigeria, the report also casts a spotlight on the broader West African region, with countries like Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger also expected to face varying levels of food insecurity.
As international and local authorities grapple with these challenges, the World Bank’s projections underscore the urgent need for concerted efforts to prevent a full-blown food crisis in one of Africa’s most populous nations and its neighbors.
It stated, “It is projected that most areas in West and Central Africa will remain Minimally food insecure (IPC Phase 1) until May 2024, with some being categorized as Stressed IPC 2. Nigeria (far north of Adamawa, Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states) will be at Crisis food security levels (IPC Phase 3), mostly because of persistent insecurity and armed conflict and deteriorating livelihoods.”
It further stated that areas in Northeastern states such Abadam, Bama, Guzamala, Marte etc will experience Emergency food security levels (IPC Phase 4) as a result of limited household food stock and access to market and humanitarian aid.
The report also noted that over 63.2 percent of low-income countries experienced inflation levels surpassing 5 percent, marking a 1.3 percent-point increase compared to the previous food update on January 17, 2023.
In lower-middle-income countries, 73.9 percent saw inflation levels exceeding 5 percent, while 48 percent of upper-middle-income countries maintained similar percentages as the last update, with no changes recorded.
The World Bank noted that in high-income countries, over 44.4 percent reported food inflation levels surpassing 5 percent, marking a 1.9 percent decrease compared to the previous food update.
Additionally, the report revealed that in real terms, food price inflation outpaced overall inflation in 71 percent of the 165 countries where data was available.
The report further highlights the precarious situation many states in Nigeria find themselves as food prices scale the roofs. The latest CPI report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) puts food inflation at over 33 percent.
In October, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) warned that around 5 million Nigerians are at risk of hunger in 2024.
The United Nations (UN) reported in its Africa Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition that since the onset of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, approximately 78 percent of Africans have been unable to afford a nutritious diet.
In July, President Tinubu declared an emergency on food insecurity in the country and moved the item to the National Security Council. However, the move has resulted in little or no impact as food prices continue to surge.
Yesterday, protests broke out in Niger state over rising food prices and hunger across the state.
…Says food inflation remains a concern for low, middle, high-income nations
In a related development, according to the latest Food Security Update report from the World Bank, released on Tuesday, global food prices continue to experience high inflation across low, middle, and high-income countries.
The report reveals that in 63.2 percent of low-income nations, inflation exceeded 5 percent, representing a 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous update in January 2023.
Similarly, 73.9 percent of lower-middle-income countries and 48 percent of upper-middle-income countries also witnessed inflation levels surpassing 5 percent, with no change from the previous update.
In high-income countries, the World Bank observed that 44.4 percent of nations experienced food inflation above 5 percent, indicating a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous update.
Furthermore, the report emphasised that in 71 percent of the 165 countries with available data, food price inflation outpaced overall inflation in real terms.
The World Bank’s Food Security Update also highlighted the impact of recent attacks by Houthi rebels on vessels in the Red Sea.
These assaults have resulted in a 40 percent reduction in trade volumes through the Suez Canal, thereby diminishing global food security, as reported by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
In 2023, food prices, mainly in the agricultural price index, fell by 9 percent due to ample supplies of major crops, except for rice, which declined by 27 percent.
Forecasts indicate further price declines in 2024 and 2025, although risks like energy cost hikes, adverse weather, trade constraints, and geopolitical uncertainty could intervene.
In 2023, the price of food, particularly in the agricultural sector, dropped by 9 percent due to an abundance of major crops, with the exception of rice, which experienced a decline of 27 percent.
Forecasts suggest that food prices will continue to decrease in 2024 and 2025, although there are potential risks such as increased energy costs, adverse weather conditions, trade limitations, and geopolitical uncertainty that could impact these projections.
The World Bank Group has significantly increased its efforts by allocating $45 billion, including $22 billion in new loans and $23 billion from existing portfolios.
These initiatives now cover 90 countries and aim to address both short-term needs, such as expanding social protection, and long-term goals, such as improving productivity and implementing climate-smart agriculture.
The World Bank has stated that its intervention is expected to have a positive impact on 335 million individuals, which is equivalent to 44 percent of the undernourished population. Approximately 53 percent of the beneficiaries are women, who are disproportionately affected by the crisis.
One of the World Bank’s interventions, the West Africa Food Systems Resilience Programme, has a budget of $766 million and aims to enhance preparedness against food insecurity while strengthening the resilience of food systems in the region. Additionally, the bank is preparing to commit an additional $345 million for Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.
In April 2024, the headline inflation rate rose to 33.69 percent, up from 33.20 percent in March 2024, marking an increase of 0.49 percent points according to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Comparing year-on-year data, the inflation rate in April 2024 was 11.47 percent points higher than in April 2023, where it stood at 22.22 percent. This indicates that the headline inflation rate has risen significantly over the past year.
Additionally, on a month-to-month basis, the inflation rate for April 2024 was 2.29 percent, which is 0.73 percent lower than the 3.02 percent recorded in March 2024. This suggests that the rate at which prices increased in April 2024 was slower than the rate in March 2024.
In April 2024, the food inflation rate reached 40.53 percent on a year-on-year basis, marking a substantial increase of 15.92 percentage points from the 24.61 percent recorded in April 2023. This significant rise in food inflation can be attributed to higher prices for several items including millet flour, garri, bread, prepacked wheat flour, and semovita, all of which belong to the Bread and Cereals class, as well as for yam tuber, water yam, and cocoyam and others.
For the year ending in April 2024, the average annual rate of food inflation stood at 32.74 percent, representing an increase of 9.52 percentage points over the 23.22 percent average annual rate recorded in April 2023.
Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, reached 26.84 percent in April 2024 on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 6.87 percent from the 19.96 percent recorded in April 2023. The most significant price rises were observed in actual and imputed rentals for housing, motorcycle journeys, bus journeys within a city (under Passenger Transport by Road Class), consultation fees for medical doctors, X-ray photography (under Medical Services Class), and accommodation services.
On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 2.20 percent in April 2024, down from 2.54 percent in March 2024, representing a decrease of 0.34 percent. The average annual core inflation rate for the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 22.84 percent, which is 5.15 percentage points higher than the 17.70 percent recorded in April 2023.
In April 2024, the urban inflation rate on a year-on-year basis reached 36.00 percent, which is 12.61 percentage points higher than the 23.39 percent recorded in April 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate for April 2024 was 2.67 percent, showing a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from the 3.17 percent seen in March 2024. The average urban inflation rate over the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 30.02 percent, marking an increase of 8.53 percentage points from the 21.50 percent reported in April 2023.
In April 2024, the rural inflation rate was 31.64 percent on a year-on-year basis, which is 10.50 percentage points higher than the 21.14 percent seen in April 2023.
On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate for April 2024 was 1.92 percent, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from the 2.87 percent recorded in March 2024. The average rural inflation rate over the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 26.38 percent, which represents an increase of 6.20 percentage points from the 20.18 percent reported in April 2023.
…Counts gains of previous edition of investment summit
By Matthew Denis, Lafia
The Governor of Nasarawa state, Engr. Abdullahi Sule has taken steps to woo investors to invest in the state at the ongoing Nasarawa Investment Summit.
Delivering his opening speech, Governor Sule disclosed that the state is expanding the existing industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards a better economy.
He said, “What we are witnessing today will further expand our existing pathways to leverage on the industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards enhancing inclusive and sustainable wealth creation and economic prosperity.
“It is with a sense of fulfillment and responsibility that I address you today on the occasion of the Nasarawa Investment Summit, 2024.
“I must acknowledge our most cherished investors and other development partners, who are here to be part of this auspicious occasion. I have no doubt that the coming together of these distinguished and eminent personalities will, no doubt offer us the opportunities to continue to map the future of our State economic landscape in our relentless commitment to explore business opportunities and forge investment partnerships across business endeavour.”
The Governor stressed that it is pertinent to remind you that Nasarawa State organised the first edition of the Nasarawa Investment Summit in 2022 under the theme “Diamond in the Rough: The Making of a New Investment Frontier,” aimed at ushering investment and showcasing our mineral resources to potential investors.
“I am happy to state that the outcome of the Summit informed the influx of investors into the State Who are variously harnessing our God-given endowment.
“Interestingly, the recently commissioned Avatar New Energy Materials Company Limited in Nasarawa State performed by Mr. President, the ASGARD Mining and Processing Plant, Karu, the Nasarawa Technology Village Project in Karu, as well as other numerous investments being carried out in the State were all informed by the outcome of the Summit conducted in 2022.
“It is also heartwarming to state that the Federal Government commissioned the spud-in of the Ebenyi-A Oil Well in Obi Local Government Area of the State. The discovery of Oil and Gas and its subsequent exploration and exploitation will further boost the economic prosperity of our dear country and put Nasarawa State among the comity of Oil producing States.
“I, therefore, call on the investors on Oil and Gas to take advantage of the exploration activities to begin to invest in the sector for the benefit of the society.”
“To ensure full utilisation of our potentials, we have pledged to sustain the Investment Summit in order to further showcase other solid mineral resources which are yet to be identified by interested investors. This is why the theme of this year’s Summit is deliberately coined as ‘The Industrial Renaissance,’ having built some of the key fundamentals required to drive our industrial agenda and present other minerals to our potential investors.”
He explained that the staging of the 2024 Nasarawa Investment Summit,which we are witnessing today will further expand our existing pathways to leverage on the industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards enhancing inclusive and sustainable wealth creation and economic prosperity.
“It is pertinent to point out that, as a State, we have been deliberate in stimulating our economy, building human capacities, creating wealth and generate employment to our people. It is for this reason that we have adopted our policy document christened ‘Nasarawa Economic Development Strategy (NEDS)’ as a driving force towards the initiation and implementation of various programmes and policies which we have achieved so far.
“I must acknowledge that with the assemblage of the experienced and versatile resource persons to engage the participants on the topics earmarked for discussion, I believe that the outcome of this Summit will go a long way towards actualizing our dream of industrialising Nasarawa State and position it as a leading champion.”
While applauding President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his sustained effort in driving the Nigeria economy to prosperity, he said, “I assure Mr. President of our unalloyed loyalty and continued support in order to take our country to greater heights.”
“Let me as always, call on our development partners to continue to invest in Nasarawa State with the view to open the frontiers of economic prosperity for the benefit of all. Indeed, Nasarawa means business.”
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has activated plans to double foreign-currency remittance flows through formal channels by granting 14 new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) Approval-in-Principle (AIP).
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