Wike, Obi romance: Can this upstage Tinubu, Atiku?

Joel Oladele, Abuja

Nigeria 2023 general elections  keep proving to be one of the most unpredictable elections in the history of the country as so many uncertainties spring up everyday. Especially with the National Consultative Front, NCFront, the umbrella body of the ‘3rd Force’ Movement adoption of the Labour Party (LP) as its party to align with for the elections and also the recent romance between Mr. Peter Obi of LP and Governor Wike of Rivers State.

Basically, the past presidential elections in Nigeria have always been between two major parties and others. However, the story seems to be changing as the race is now between 3 political Titans: Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)’s presidential candidate after polling a total number of 1271 delegates votes to defeat the first and second runners-up, Rotimi Amaechi and Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo who scored  a total number of 316  and 235 delegate votes respectively.

Another bigwig in the race is the flag bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who polled 371 votes against Mr Wike’s 237 votes to emerge as the PDP’s presidential candidate.

The third force to reckon with as far as 2023 elections is concerned is Mr Obi of Labour Party (LP). Obi, who was Mr Abubakar’s running mate in the PDP in the 2019 presidential election was among the PDP presidential aspirants this year.

He announced his resignation from the PDP a few days to the party presidential primary, saying there were practices in the party that were inconsistent with his “belief and persona.” He defected to the LP where he later emerged the party’s 2023 presidential candidate.

The former Governor of Anambra and presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP)  Peter Obi who can be likened to the biblical  stone rejected by the builder is fast becoming the Chief cornerstone as many now believe he can pull a surprise victory in the 2023 presidential election.

However, it’s not going to be all rosy for Mr Obi as there are odds against and for him.

The 2023 election is a battle of supremacy between the political elites and Nigerian masses with Peter Obi as an arrowhead.

Part of the recent factors in favour of Peter Obi is his alleged alliance with some “big boys” in Nigeria politics.

One of such is the Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike who has been at loggerheads with the PDP’s presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar after the presidential primaries. The crisis deepened amidst speculations that Mr Wike may dump the PDP due to his failed bid to become Mr Atiku’s running mate for the 2023 election.

Atiku had picked Delta State Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa, as his running mate. Consequently, Wike was rumoured to have joined the ruling All Progressives Congress recently but he denied it.

Amidst the crisis, Peter Obi, in June visited Governor Nyesom Wike, at his private residence in Port Harcourt, the state capital, where he had  a closed-door meeting with the governor.

The details of the meeting wasn’t known as they both declined speaking with journalists after the meeting but it can’t be far from an attempt by the LP presidential candidate to woo him to his camp ahead of the 2023 presidential election.

To further confirm the speculations, Peter Obi again met with the Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, and the former governor of Ondo State, Olusegun Mimiko on Monday night.

Also at the meeting were top politicians across the country, like former Cross River Governor, Donald Duke; Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom; Abia State Governor, Okezie Ikpeazu, Gombe State ex-governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo; and a host of others at Wike’s private residence in Port Harcourt, Rivers State.

Mimiko on his Twitter page shared a photo with the  politicians with the caption “Nice to share some time last night with @GovWike @Donald_Duke @PeterObi @HEDankwambo @GovSamuelOrtom, @GovernorIkpeazu, Mohammed Adoke SAN and many other friends.”

Although the former Ondo State governor, who also rose into power under the platform of Labour Party in 2009 did not give a reason for the meeting, it won’t be completely wrong to conclude that it all geared towards 2023 elections.

Governor Wike has been agitating for a power shift to southern Nigeria in 2023 and if this romance between Obi and these politicians is anything to be taken serious, then it may spell a doom to the duo of APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of PDP.

The question is how?

The Northern part of the country has a higher percentage of the total number of registered voters according to the recent statistics by the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) compare to the South. However, the northern votes(predominantly Muslims) will be divided between Tinubu (Muslim), Atiku (Muslim) and Kwankwaso(Muslim).

It then means whoever will emerge as the winner will need a reasonable number of votes from the South and the permutations are majorly in favour of Obi.

Governor Wike’s influence in South South and South East regions cannot be underrated. First, his state, Rivers, is one of the states with the highest number of voters in the country and he’s well received by his people due to his developmental projects across the state.

Secondly, the two regions had over the years been dominated by PDP and if Wike succeeds in winning most of their governors  to the camp of Obi under the umbrella of the Southern President agenda, then APC and PDP might not have a good outing in the two regions.

For the South West where the APC presidential candidate came from, the region has no doubt been divided along religious lines due to the Muslim/Muslim ticket of APC. Although few people don’t care about religion as all they are after is “Omo wa ni, e je o see.” Meaning, he’s our kinsman, let’s support him to win.

Asiwaju last month announced the former Governor of Borno State, Senator Kashim Shettima as his running mate, a decision that has upset many Christians across the country. The South West is predominantly Christian and if the music about the religion card continues, APC might not get as many votes as expected in the region.

For Atiku, South is fast becoming a no go area due to tribal and religious sentiments at play against him. Many Southerners believe after the incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim from the Nothern extraction, the fair thing is for the power to shift to the South, not just to the South but a Christian.

No doubt, Obi is the arrowhead presidential candidate from the South-East extraction of Nigeria. If  he can have 20%- 25% of the votes from the North, he might be victorious come February 2023.

Some analysts have suggested one of the ways he can achieve this is by “joining an alliance with other forces in the North; despite he picked a Muslim Northerner, Yusuf Baba-Ahmed as his running mate he still needs more allies who command huge followership in order to appeal to mass majority votes from the region.”

He had earlier approached Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerians People’s Party for an alliance but the move proved abortive as the candidates failed to reach a compromise on who becomes the presidential/vice-presidential candidate status.

With all these alliances and the already existing support Peter Obi enjoys from young Nigerians, who see him as the youngest amongst the trio and someone who can bring about a fresh air in the political landscape of the country, upstaging Tinubu and Atiku is not impossible.

Another important factor in favour of Obi is the fact that most Nigerians are tired of APC and PDP and there might be a protest vote come 2023.

Obi was underrated until recently. As a matter of fact, opposition parties have tagged him Twitter President. However, the popularity he enjoys on social media does not end there as the number of his offline supporters now grow day by day.

Many of them are not even waiting for him to give them money to campaign like the usual practice in Nigeria, instead they are ready to spend their money voluntarily to support the movement. All they want is a New Nigeria and they feel only Peter Obi has what it takes to achieve that amongst the candidates.

If this energy is sustained, Obi might be able to spring surprises at the poll and what is considered to be a small river can eventually grow to a big ocean. The experienced swimmers should therefore watch out, otherwise they get drowned.