Seasonal climate prediction: Expect early rainfall, take early actions — FG to States
…Charges public to take warning serious
Joel Oladele, Abuja
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has predicated that rainfall onset date is to be earlier than the long-term average in most parts of the country in 2023.
The Minister of Aviation, Senator Hadi Sirika disclosed this in his keynote address at the public presentation of the 2023 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) organised by NiMet in Abuja on Tuesday.
Senator Sirika noted that the onset dates will range from 2nd March to 7th July 2023, while states like Katsina, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, and Yobe in the North and Cross River, Ebonyi, Imo, and Rivers in the South are likely to experience a delayed onset.
The Onset is expected to become established in early March from the coastal states of Bayelsa, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom.
Speaking on day and night temperature for May, he said the forecast has been included to capture variability in recent climate and to cover the hot season in Nigeria which is usually observed between February and May.
He added that the 2023 SCP document has also been translated into three major languages: Hausa, Yoruba and Igbo, to provide increased access and encourage wider uptake in the Country.
“The rainfall onset date is predicted to be earlier than the long-term average in most parts of the country. However, parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, and Yobe in the north and Cross River, Ebonyi, Imo, and Rivers in the south are likely to experience a delayed onset
“The Onset is expected to become established in early March from the coastal states of Bayelsa, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom; in April for the Inland States of the South; in May around the Central States and around July in the northern States. The onset dates will range from 2nd March to 7th July 2023,” Sirika said.
An early End of Season (EoS) is also predicted over parts of the South, especially in Osun, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Imo, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and eastern parts of Ogun and Lagos and parts of Yobe, Adamawa, Niger, Nasarawa and Kogi.
However, an extended rainfall season is predicted over parts of Gombe, Kaduna, Kwara, Enugu, Anambra, western Ogun, and Lagos. The end of season period is expected to range from the 26th of September till 25th of December.
“The length of growing season in most places in the country is likely to be near the long-term average, except for some parts of the northern states such as Katsina, Jigawa, and Kano where shorter than the long-term average length of the growing season is anticipated.
“The season is expected to range from 84 to 283 days. Abuja and surrounding States are expected to witness between 170 and 230 days. The annual total rainfall is predicted to be Normal to above normal in most parts of the country.
“However, in parts of Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Bauchi, Jigawa, Kaduna and FCT they are likely to observe below normal to near normal annual rainfall amounts. The annual rainfall amount is expected to range from 420mm in the far northernmost parts to 3253 m in the coastal areas,” the Minister noted
“On dry spell occurrences which have characterised seasons in Nigeria in recent years, NiMet charged the general public to prepare for its occurrence between June and early July as dry spell lasting between 15 to 21 days is in the forecast, especially from the central parts of the country to the North.
“When compared to the last years, the little dry season (August Break) for 2023 is expected to be less intense. It is expected to last between 14 and 20 days starting from late July especially over the Southwest of the country.
“Other forecasts such as the temperature for the first 5 months of the year, Malaria and meningitis forecast along with the socio-economic implications of these forecasts are contained in explicit details in the documents.
“To our dear Policy Makers across all tiers of Government, the 2023 SCP has been summarised in a booklet that is handy and highly informative. This summary is also available today for your kind attention and pick up.
“As weather is dynamic so is the climate (i.e., Climate variability). Hence, I assure you that the Nigerian Meteorological Agency will ensure everything is done to bring updates to you should there be changes in any of the expected climatic parameter. So, feel free to digest all the salient information contained in the document.
“It is important at this juncture to appreciate everyone whose feedback, efforts, support, and leadership over the years have made the SCP and its advisories an important reference document and product within and outside Nigeria.
“Your regular feedback will continue to help NiMet improve the accuracy of the forecast and performance of the model for optimum productivity, guided decisions, and reliable results.
“Now that Early Warning has been provided, I encourage us all to embrace Early Action for maximum benefits and sustainable national socio-economic development. By so doing, collectively we would have stayed through to the theme of this event: Strengthening Climate Risk Early Warning Services for Improved Food Security and Disaster Risk Reduction in Nigeria,” Senator Sirika admonished.
In his vote of thanks, the Director General/Chief Executive Officer, NiMet, Prof. Mansur Bako Matazu appreciated President Muhammadu Buhari for his unwavering support for the agency, especially for signing NiMet new Act of 2022.
“With the NiMet new Act of 2022, we are optimistic of effective collaborations going forward. Thanks to Mr President and the Lawmakers for making this a reality.
“While appreciating everyone, I therefore call on all to embrace Early Action and follow us for in-season updates as we work together to maximise success and de-risk our activities,” Professor Matazu said.
