Recession in Nigeria will be short-lived — FG assures
…Says Nigeria not a failed state
The Federal Government has reassured that the latest economic recession the country slid into owing to the impact of COVID-19 will be short-lived.
The Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, gave the assurance on Monday in Lagos at a New Year media briefing.
Nigeria officially entered recession at the end of the third quarter (Q3) in 2020 after the country’s Gross Domestic Product declined for the second consecutive quarter in 2020 (Q2 and Q3).
“The latest recession in Nigeria will be short-lived, and Nigeria will return to positive growth soon, unlike the 2016 recession which lasted five quarters.
“This is because of several complementary fiscal, real sector and monetary interventions proactively introduced by the government to forestall a far worse decline of the economy and alleviate the negative consequences of the pandemic,’’ he said.
To justify the position, Mohammed said that as the year 2020 was rounding off, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) was named the best-performing stock market among the 93 equity indexes being tracked by Bloomberg across the world.
“The all-share index, which opened at 38,800.01, moved up by 310.16 points to close at 39,110.17 – crossing the 39,000 mark.
“The market capitalisation rose by N167 billion to close at N20.446 trillion. Returns are currently at 45.7 percent; the best annual return since 2013,’’ he said.
The minister, who hinged the recession on the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, noted that Nigeria is not alone in the situation.
He said dozens of countries, including economic giants like the US, UK and Canada, had entered into recession due to the global pandemic.
Other countries in recession, he said, included Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Russia and Spain.
The minister also reiterated that the recession also marked a lot of positive economic developments in the country.
“According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the decline of -3.62% in Q3 is much smaller than the -6.10% recorded in Q2.
“The economic conditions are actually improving, with 17 activities recording positive real growth in the third quarter, compared to 13 in Q2.
“Also, 36 of 46 economic activities did better in the third quarter of 2020 than in the second quarter of the same year.
“The -3.62 per cent contraction recorded in the third quarter of 2020 was better than the -6.01 per cent earlier forecast by the National Bureau of Statistics, and outperformed several domestic and international forecasts,’’ he said.
Mohammed noted that prior to COVID-19, the Nigerian economy had been experiencing sustained growth, which was improving every quarter, until the second quarter of 2020 when the impact of the pandemic started to be felt.
He said the oil sector was largely responsible for the slowdown in economic activities in the third quarter of 2020 as it recorded a sharp contraction of -13.89 per cent year-on-year.
The reason for the decline, according to the minister, was the slowdown in global economic growth and oil demand due to the pandemic.
He said Nigeria’s obligations to meet OPEC cuts were principally responsible for the slowdown in the performance of the oil sector.
On the non-oil sector, Mohammed said though it also contracted in the third quarter of 2020, the decline in the sector by -2.51 per cent year-on-year was significantly better when compared to the second quarter of the same year.
In the meantime, the Federal Government has also disagreed with those calling Nigeria a failed state and described those with such opinion as “jaundiced analysts and their lapdogs,’’
While insisting that Nigeria is not a failing or failed state due to its security challenges. Mohammed, stressed that the gloomy prediction would not come to pass, added that the country would rise to become a more respected member of the comity of nations.
“You would remember that for the past two decades or so, some pseudo-analysts have been predicting the country’s implosion.
“That has not happened, hence they have found a new watchword – failing or failed state!
“ It’s all a ruse aimed at depicting Nigeria as being in a constant state of anarchy so they can achieve their nefarious objectives for the country,’’ he said.
Mohammed said notwithstanding the antics of the analysts who he said had constituted themselves into another ‘fighting force,’ the country had made tremendous progress in tackling bandits and Boko Haram terrorists.
He said: “If Nigeria was not a ‘failing’ state when a large slice of its territory equivalent to the size of Belgium was under the occupation of Boko Haram, which collected taxes, installed and deposed emirs, is it now that no territory is under the terrorists that Nigeria will be a failing state?
“If Nigeria was not a failed state when bombs were raining on towns and cities in Kano, Kaduna, Plateau, Borno, Yobe, FCT and other states, is it now that such bombings have stopped that Nigeria will be described as a ‘failing’ state?
“If Nigeria was not a ‘failing’ state in those years that Christian and Muslim worshippers needed to be screened to even enter their places of worship, is it now that the siege on places of worship has ceased that Nigeria will be described as a ‘failing’ state?’’
Mohammed said it was sad that many people had forgotten where the country was in terms of the state of insecurity just a few years back.
The minister, however, thanked the security agencies for ensuring that Nigerians celebrated another Christmas and the new year without bombings.
He recalled that in 2010, 2011 and 2012, Christmas eve or Christmas Day attacks left hundreds dead or injured.
Mohammed also recalled the attack on the UN Complex in Abuja in August 2011, the bombing of media houses in Abuja and Kaduna in April 2012 and the killing of about 40 students in Mubi, Adamawa, in October 2012.
He said the analysts had forgotten that over 80 towns and villages were attacked and razed, with casualties, by Boko Haram in Borno alone
“Have we forgotten the constant attacks on military and security formations like Giwa Barracks (Maiduguri), Mohammed Kur Barracks (Bama), Monguno Barracks (Monguno), Airforce Base (Maiduguri), New Prison (Maiduguri) and numerous police stations?
“The fact that these attacks and bombings have stopped is a testimony to the progress we have made in tackling terrorism which, by the way, is not like conventional warfare.
“The stoppage of the attacks didn’t happen by accident. It is therefore mischievous for anyone to discountenance the progress we have made in tackling insecurity, in building and upgrading infrastructure and in diversifying the economy, among others.
“The Federal Government rejects this characterisation of Nigeria as a ‘failing’ state, which is a combination of the wishful thinking of naysayers and the evil machinations of those who don’t wish Nigeria well,’’ he said.
Mohammed said the government had sustained the fight against terrorists, bandits, kidnappers and other criminal elements across the country, especially in the North East and the North West regions.
He said the recent swift response and rescue of the 344 kidnapped Kankara school boys in Katsina State from bandits attested to the claim.
Mohammed said the president has continued to provide all the necessary platforms on land, air and sea to support the fight against criminals and terrorists in the country.
The minister said besides tackling insecurity headlong, the country had continued to make steady progress in many areas, including infrastructural development, agriculture and power.
