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Oil production: KPMG revises Nigeria 2023 economic growth forecast downward to 2.65%

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KPMG Nigeria, a multinational consulting firm, has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2023 further downward to 2.65 per cent from the earlier promised 2.85 per cent, based on several factors, including the likelihood of a contraction in the country’s oil production in August and September, as revealed in July 2023, raising concerns about the country’s economic future.

According to KPMG the first Half (H1) 2023 Gross Domestic Product, (GDP) currently stands at 2.42 per cent and will require an average growth in H2 2023 of 3.30 per cent to record 2.85 per cent.

KPMG said, “The Q3 2023 is the quarter where the impact of subsidy removal, Foreign exchange unification and other reforms of the new administration had  major impact on squeezing household consumption demand and firms’ costs of operations.”

The firm also disclosed that the impact of subsidy removal and FX volatility has also reduced private investment in the country during the period in view.

It further added that its downward adjustment in the country’s growth was also premised on the muted government investment in the economy in Q2 and Q3 2023, even as the new administrations at the Federal and State level are still settling down for governance in Q3, 2023.

The Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its recent report revealed that the oil sector contracted since Q1, 2020 further declining by -13.43 per cent in Q2,2023 and -11.77 per cent in Q2, 2023.

KPMG further emphasised that Nigeria’s Q2, 2023 GDP result was in line with its earlier downgrade revision of 2023 GDP to 2.85 per cent.

It said that the impact of subsidy removal was evident in the biggest contraction in road transportation GDP since the news GDP series.

It said, “Though subsidy was only removed in June 2023, representing a one month impact of the three months of the quarter, road transport GDP contracted by -55.14 per cent in Q2, 23, which is the biggest contraction in road transport GDP in history.

“This contradicts the muted results recorded with respect to inflation for that same month which according to NBS was not expected to fully reflect on the Consumers Price Index through methodologically,” the professional firm noted.

KPMG disclosed that Nigeria’s oil production has started in Q3, 2023 with a further contraction in July 2023, revealing that if this trend continues for the remaining months of Q3, 23, the country will witness a situation where non-oil sector growth and oil sector growth will both underperform.

KPMG said that with rising inflation in the first month of Q3, 2023, and expectation of further increases in inflation for the rest of the year, the pressure on nominal to real GDP will be higher, thereby curtailing higher real GDP growth in Q3,2023.

Tinubu’s administration needs to urgently implement energy industry policies that attract more investment and kick-start existing ones, with the overall objective of driving economic growth.

The new government may need to address structural issues in the economy, such as corruption, poor infrastructure, and a weak business environment, to improve the country’s long-term growth prospects.

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Energy

Marketers advocate ethanol as alternative fuel, plan $7bn yearly savings

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The Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria has stated that ethanol could be adopted as a biofuel to help Nigeria in reducing energy poverty and emissions.

According to MEMAN during a recent quarterly press webinar and engagement, about $7.4 billion could be saved annually by taking advantage of Nigeria’s ethanol resources as a biofuel to support petrol.

Ethanol is a biofuel that is commonly used as a substitute or additive to petrol in vehicles. It is typically produced through the fermentation of plant materials like cassava, corn, sugarcane, and others.

MEMAN noted that ethanol blended into biofuel as a transformative energy source has the potential to change Nigeria’s energy landscape and pave the way for a sustainable economy.

Experts, who spoke at the webinar, revealed that Nigeria had what it takes to exploit its ethanol to biofuel potential.

Presenting a paper titled ‘Ethanol as a Biofuel,’ a Senior Consultant with Africa Practice, Agwu Ojowu, pointed out that developing the ethanol industry could save the nation about $7.4bn ba year.

“Nigeria’s cassava production, standing at 63 million metric tonnes annually, represents 26 per cent of the global total. However, with 40 percent of this yield lost each year, there is a significant economic loss estimated at $7.4bn. Developing the ethanol industry could mitigate these losses, enhance economic stability, and capitalise on the depreciating currency to reduce costs,” Ojowu stated.

He emphasised that ethanol’s higher octane rating improves fuel quality and helps meet environmental standards by reducing sulphur content and greenhouse gas emissions.

Those attributes, he said, make ethanol a cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternative to petrol, aligning with Nigeria’s climate commitments.

Going down memory lane, Ojowu recalled that Nigeria’s foray into ethanol began with the 2007 biofuels policy, which mandated a 10 percent ethanol blend in fuel.

“Despite initial challenges, including the suspension of the policy in 2008, because of blending inconsistencies, the potential of ethanol remains significant. Ethanol’s cost-effectiveness compared to petrol has historically led to economic arbitrage, suggesting that a well-regulated biofuel market could be economically advantageous,” he said.

Ojowu added that ethanol presents numerous benefits, including economic, environmental, and agricultural advantages, without necessitating vehicle modifications.

The Executive Secretary of MEMAN, Clement Isong, also emphasised the role of renewable energy in addressing Nigeria’s energy poverty.

He highlighted the importance of diverse energy sources, including biofuels, solar, hydroelectricity, and wind energy, to create a balanced and sustainable energy mix.

“MEMAN is committed to engaging with industry stakeholders to advocate for energy solutions that meet Nigeria’s needs,” Isong said.

He expressed optimism about the future of renewable energy in Nigeria and the continued efforts to enhance press engagement and industry collaboration.

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Energy

Abuja DisCo adds 45 new feeders to Band A

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The Abuja Electricity Distribution Company, (AEDC) has disclosed it has added 45 new feeders to the Band A category of customers who would enjoy a minimum of 20 hours of electricity as stipulated by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

The new feeders are majorly in the Asokoro, Wuye, Garki, Suleja, Apo and other areas of the capital city. This was disclosed by the Disco on their official X (formerly Twitter) page where it described the feeder location and specific areas served by the feeder.

Other areas where feeders were upgraded to band A include; Suleja, Garki Area II, Wuse, Anyigba, Mpape, Jabi, Gwagwalada, Gwarimpa etc.

The DisCo noted that the upgrade to band A for the affected feeder location is effective from June 1, 2024.  Similar upgrades across other DisCos

In April, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) announced a more than 200 percent increase in electricity tariffs for Band A customers.

This move is part of efforts to eliminate electricity subsidies and implement a cost-reflective tariff system in the power sector.

Abuja Disco’s addition of new feeders to Band A is in line with similar actions by other distribution companies like Eko and Ikeja DisCos following the tariff hike.

Band A customers are on specific feeders that receive a minimum of 20 hours of electricity daily. According to NERC, these customers account for approximately 17 percent of all electricity users in the country.

The decision to raise electricity tariffs for Band A customers has sparked public outrage, particularly among trade and labour unions nationwide.

Organised labour members have protested the increase, while the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has advised its members not to pay the new tariff, claiming they were not consulted.

MAN has instructed its members to continue paying the old rate of N66/kWh. The various electricity distribution companies have vowed to disconnect customers who fail to pay the new tariff under their band.

The group has also filed a petition with NERC regarding the tariff hike, which is currently awaiting resolution.

Furthermore, the Organised Private Sector (OPS) comprising all chambers of commerce and trade associations across the country had warned that the new tariff could lead to the shutdown of 65 percent of businesses across the country.  The group stated that the over 200 percent hike in electricity tariff to N220/KWh then made Nigeria’s power cost the highest in the world. It warned that the hike could exacerbate the economic situation in the country and push more people into unemployment and poverty.

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Energy

Settlement agreement: NNPC asks court to discontinue lawsuit against Mobil subsidiaries

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has filed a motion to discontinue its lawsuit against Mobil Nigeria subsidiaries and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

The motion is aimed at finalizing a settlement agreement for the divestment of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited to Seplat Energy Offshore Limited for $1.28 billion.

NNPC’s legal counsel, Afe Babalola & Co., presented the motion, requesting the court’s permission to withdraw the suit and strike it off the court’s cause list.

The motion cites legal precedents, including the Supreme Court decision in Adama v. Maigari (2019), which supports the relisting of a discontinued suit if the out-of-court settlement fails.

The lawsuit, originally filed by NNPC on July 5, 2022, was referred to arbitration on August 3, 2022.

Recent negotiations have led to an out-of-court settlement decision, with the Settlement Agreement requiring NNPC to withdraw the lawsuit.

The court is currently considering the motion, which, if granted, would pave the way for the parties to complete the settlement and divestment transaction.

No further details have been released, but sources indicate that the settlement agreement includes clauses designed to align the interests of all parties and finalize the transaction.

The development is seen as a significant step towards resolving the longstanding dispute between NNPC, the Mobil subsidiaries, and NUPRC.

Approval of the motion would allow the parties to focus on finalizing the settlement and completing the divestment transaction.

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