Oil growth demand: OPEC lowers forecast amidst rising economic challenges

By Ibiyemi Mathew

Amidst rising economic challenges globally, the Organisation of  the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has trimmed the demand  growth for oil in 2022, 2023 by 100,000 bpd.

This is the fifth time since April the organization has trimmed the figure citing mounting economic challenges including high inflation and rising interest rates.

According to OPEC, oil demand in 2022 will increase by 2.55 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.6 per cent.

“The world economy has entered a period of significant uncertainty and rising challenges in the fourth quarter of 2022.

“Downside risks include high inflation, monetary tightening by major central banks, high sovereign debt levels in many regions, tightening labour markets and persisting supply chain constraints,”OPEC said in the report.

This report is the last before OPEC and its allies, together known as OPEC+, meet on Dec. 4. The group, which recently cut production targets, will remain cautious, the energy Minister for Saudi Arabia, the OPEC+ de-facto leader, was quoted as saying last week.

Next year, OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 2.24 million bpd, also 100,000 bpd lower than previously forecast.

Despite commenting on the rising challenges, OPEC left its 2022 and 2023 global economic growth forecasts steady and said while risks were skewed to the downside, there was also upside potential.

“This may come from a variety of sources. Predominantly, inflation could be positively impacted by any resolution of the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, allowing for less hawkish monetary policies,” OPEC said.